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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Not a bad outlook from the 12's.

    The overall upper pattern is still for rising pressure with an Azores/ Euro. block developing this week.

    The surface features will likely vary as we get closer to verification of this change as we do have the jet moving north in the coming days with frontal systems embedded in the flow.

    The latest fax's show this so of course there will be a lot of cloud around for a time,even further south,as the high ridges in from the sw.

     

    post-2026-0-85258700-1393872381_thumb.gipost-2026-0-34457700-1393872395_thumb.gi

     

    Areas further north west will remain more unsettled for the time being by the looks with the polar front still wavering across the north of the UK .

    The outlook does look more promising for southern areas though with the continental high never far away with a tendency for frequent ridging north over the next week -GEM a little less bullish on this at first although even there it shows an improvement later in it's run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Only a minor blip this morning..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ECM ensemble continuing to back a pressure rise for England and Wales with a 2 day blip Sunday and Monday

     

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    2 day blip though by Sunday you can see the next high just moving towards the south west

     

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    The high you see at t168 continues to build

     

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    So continued signs of a rise in pressure in 72 hours time for England and Wales this slowly slips south during Saturday and Sunday, then we see a renewed pressure rise moving in early next week

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GFS pressure ensembles continuing to support a pressure rise from the 6th with a slight drop to around 1010mb for the 1oth before a quick rise afterwards to the 15th when we see another steady fall to around 1015mb

     

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    The Aberdeen continues to take longer to see a pressure rise so those in the far north and west of Scotland may remain prone to the bulk of the unsettled weather

     

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    Quick look at the rain on the Aberdeen and London ensembles shows the south will become significantly drier than of late this doesn't mean we won't see any rain here but the flood hit communities should see this much needed drier spell continuing for a while yet allowing the flood water to continue to recede with the bulk of any unsettled weather affecting parts of Scotland

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

    Typical, even when there is a pressure rise, there are still several fronts straddling the UK, so we still don't get any dry weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Hard to believe the 0z runs shook some of us..

     

    18z is firmly on the 'give March 2012 a run for its money' side..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    18z FI however puts us back into the Atlantic zonal conveyor belt regime

     

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    A long way off and only one run but it cannot be discounted based on this year's extraordinary track record so far.Posted Image

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    18z FI however puts us back into the Atlantic zonal conveyor belt regime

     

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    A long way off and only one run but it cannot be discounted based on this year's extraordinary track record so far.Posted Image

     

    Do you truly believe that will/might/could actually verify at that t+21600 minute timeframe. Posted Image  I do hope you're having a bubble-bath laugh Purga as I'm beginning to worry about your analysis. Best you stick to the nearer-term, because one day your reverse psychology might actually work. Posted Image Posted Image My region badly needs some HP influence and at last, that is what the broad model output consensus provides, by March 18th things may well have changed for the worse of course. With the hope that the roads can once again become roads and not rivers, folk from the counties which border my location will be relieved to see the change in weather type being forecast.Posted Image

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

    18z FI however puts us back into the Atlantic zonal conveyor belt regime

     

     

    A long way off and only one run but it cannot be discounted based on this year's extraordinary track record so far.Posted Image

    Wow, this is a very misleading post given 90% of the run is settled and warm and you have posted a chart right at the very end of the run. You have seen the volatile state of the runs even in the shorter timeframe so of course deep FI is going to change. 

    Edited by Blizzards
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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    18z FI however puts us back into the Atlantic zonal conveyor belt regime

    Posted Image

    A long way off and only one run but it cannot be discounted based on this year's extraordinary track record so far.Posted Image

    the latest update of the ec32 has a rather zonal outlook; from around mid month thru 4 Apr, Atlantic shown to influence our weather. The temp anomaly indicates average to slightly below thru this period also. 18z doesn't look so ridiculous to me, after seeing this from ECM.

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    this at 18th & 25th march, so obvious caution applies. But the above is indicitive of the model through second half of month.

    Edited by draztik
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    GFS wants to put high pressure over and just to the east of the UK into week 2

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    GEM similar

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    ECM currently stuck at day 6 but looking the same way to me

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Next week looks very Spring like, with High Pressure sat over the UK. Much dryer and settled, with little rain, and will feel warm in the Sun.

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Next week looks very Spring like, with High Pressure sat over the UK. Much dryer and settled, with little rain, and will feel warm in the Sun.

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    Nice to see incoming HP not being downgraded. However, it's still too early in the year for high pressure to guarantee a 'warm' sun-fest - I imagine the chart you post might actually be a little chilly, as it will have a slight easterly element (though agreed, the sun is starting to strengthen so won't feel too bad if it comes out).Try to box this chart up and bring it out again in June, then it will be a scorcher!
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ECM Op hasn't updated on wetterzentral but we have a stunning ensemble run bar a minor blip for some on Sunday though the south misses the blip and stays settled

     

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    Minor blip for some in the north and north west

     

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    Back to high pressure

     

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    Bank

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl

    It should feel very pleasent if them charts come to fruition,seen as europe is not especially cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    EDIT

     

    Thanks Stuart UKMO hasn't updated this morning on wetterzentral

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Continued signals from the GFS precipitation chart for some significantly drier weather across many parts of the UK

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: St Albans,
  • Location: St Albans,

    You can tell the (us) coldies have given up when with a MLB forecast no one is asking about the possibility of retrogression and undercuts :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow, lots of hot sun
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL

    Massive upgrade in the Ecm 00z ensemble mean from 24 hours ago, high pressure building in and intensifying slap bang on top of the uk whereas yesterday it showed unsettled and windier weather across the north. This could be a glorious spell of early spring weather next week with pleasantly warm temperatures and lots of strong sunshine with light winds but a risk of a touch of frost and fog patches at night..for the areas which bore the brunt of the floods and storms, these charts are heavenly.

     

    The start of the famous 2014 drought maybe !!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Very good agreement between the GFS and ECM ensembles for next weeks pressure rise

     

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    Beyond t240 the GFS ensemble shows a gradual return to cooler unsettled conditions from the north but lets enjoy this continued break from the stormy condition's first before we worry about what mid month onwards may bring

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