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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GFS ensemble still showing the settled spells

     

    The first one arrives later this week but those in Scotland won't see any too settled with rand bands always close by the high gradually moves south by Saturday

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    By t144 and t168 the high has slipped away though by t168 its getting closer to the SW again

     

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    By t192 its back

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    By t312 it slowly starts to move south once more as it starts to turn more unsettled from the north

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants

    Posted Image

     

     

    I don't know that the GEM has been all that good - over the weekend it was looking very flat for the end of the week, now it's much nearer the ECM/UKMO/GFS version of events:

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    However, it may have a point about the longer term on a broader scale as there's no doubt things look pretty ordinary this morning. Still, "not as bad as winter" is still the case.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    A look at the pressure ensembles and after the 5th pressure never gets below 1010mb to the end of the ensemble run which is around the 19th on the Dublin, Manchester and London ensembles

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    All agree on a steady decline in pressure from around the 14th but a return to the stormy conditions of the past 3 months or so looks unlikely

     

    The Aberdeen ensemble also shows a pressure rise but it takes longer to see it

     

    Posted Image

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    The ecm ensembles, show unsettled conditions being the dominant feature this morning; there is still a brief period of ridging, but its now at days 9/10.

    at t168, Posted Image

    at t240, Posted Image

    the trend thereafter is a downward one, with lower heights to the nw, and the ridge being shunted S into days 10-15

    Posted Image

    10-15 day height anomaly

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows unsettled weather returning to all areas by the end of this week and through the first half of next week, the strong anticyclonic signal shown during the last few days has taken a hit with another surge of lowering heights across the north west atlantic digging further south with the southeastern quarter of england having the best of the dry and sunny weather between frontal activity, the north and west look unsettled throughout and after a mild spell later this week in the south, it shows a cooler westerly flow sweeping in during next weekend but then eventually turning milder again later next week.

    post-4783-0-14690600-1393841404_thumb.gi

    post-4783-0-99901200-1393841408_thumb.gi

    post-4783-0-74481700-1393841413_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea

    Today's met office update has changed markedly from previously and it sounds like a glorious spell of spring weather is on the way with warm sunshine but with chilly nights with a risk of frost and fog, even the north of the uk looks like settling down eventually. Mother Nature always finds a way to balance things out and after the record wet winter we could be on course for a record dry spring with anticyclonic domination..our prayers have finally been answered..Amen to that :-)

    don't count your chickens just yet

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    don't count your chickens just yet

     After the winter we've had, soon as the words 'sunshine and warmth' are mentioned, just watch we'll get a full on Northerly!

    Now just how ironic would that be! 

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

    Today's met office update has changed markedly from previously and it sounds like a glorious spell of spring weather is on the way with warm sunshine but with chilly nights with a risk of frost and fog, even the north of the uk looks like settling down eventually. Mother Nature always finds a way to balance things out and after the record wet winter we could be on course for a record dry spring with anticyclonic domination..our prayers have finally been answered..Amen to that :-)

     Yes Frosty  The other debt that mother nature will probably also fulfill is to bring a cold and/or snowy episode to the UK in late March or early April this happens surprisingly often after winters that are completely mild. I would say somewhere between March 25th and April 15th at a guess.  Meanwhile I hope the models are not leading up the garden path with the progged extended drier spell in the south.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    0z outputs today would suggest victory for the GEM in a more classic N/S split but no major ridging until well out.

     

    GFS ensembles do lend some hope however..

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    don't count your chickens just yet

    I don't own a chicken, just going by the experts current take on things. :-)
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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    0z outputs today would suggest victory for the GEM in a more classic N/S split but no major ridging until well out.

    GFS ensembles do lend some hope however..

    Posted Image

    that chart is from the 0z set. The 6z rolling out atm are starting to smell the coffee. In the semi reliable, gefs now trending less settled.

    it would now appear the models are delaying the more significant pressure rise to the beginning of nxt wk.

    Posted Image

    Edited by draztik
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    I don't own a chicken, just going by the experts current take on things. :-)

    Let's hope they don't have egg on their faces, Especially come the weekend when words of 'very warm' were used.

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    I am once again confused by the postings in here, I still view HP influence as being the dominant feature across all outputs right through to the week three, and possibly through to week four of March. All of this from the perspective of my patch, whereas further North and West this is unlikely to be the case but even there, they won't be exempt from some decent dry weather on occasions. It will not be HP domination par se but certainly many more drier days on offer than wet ones, for which I am most thankful in all honesty and the same sentiments will be said for folk in the soaked Southern England I would imagine. Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    I am once again confused by the postings in here, I still view HP influence as being the dominant feature across all outputs right through to the week three, and possibly through to week four of March. All of this from the perspective of my patch, whereas further North and West this is unlikely to be the case but even there, they won't be exempt from some decent dry weather on occasions. It will not be HP domination par se but certainly many more drier days on offer than wet ones, for which I am most thankful in all honesty and the same sentiments will be said for folk in the soaked Southern England I would imagine. Posted Image

    we trended, for a few days, towards a significant settled spell, with mild to v. Mild showing. Today, the trend is for lower heights to exert more influence over the UK, with an Atlantic reluctant to let go. Long range models, ecm32, cfs ens, showing unsettled from around mid month, with the ext ecm now trending unsettled after day 10. No one is saying it will be very wet, just that the pressure rises shown over wkend have been watered down - with an increased chance of unsettled weather returning. Looking at the models, incl gefs, it now appears HP is unlikely to dominate. Time will tell :) Edited by draztik
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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    we trended, for a few days, towards a significant settled spell, with mild to v. Mild showing. Today, the trend is for lower heights to exert more influence over the UK, with an Atlantic reluctant to let go. Long range models, ecm32, cfs ens, showing unsettled from around mid month, with the ext ecm now trending unsettled after day 10. No one is saying it will be very wet, just that the pressure rises shown over wkend have been watered down - with an increased chance of unsettled weather returning. Looking at the models, incl gefs, it now appears HP is unlikely to dominate. Time will tell Posted Image

     

    Yes, fair enough but Gavin's ensembles also hint at a more settled pattern alongside brief interludes of wetness. Also, we are talking about a 10 day plus timeframe in your case, which will no doubt change, of course plausible outcomes could be either wet or dry in the longer-term so no dispute there. I wouldn't take much notice of actual Temperature trends as this will depend on the strength and placement of the High with the timeframes involved.

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    If anyone takes to look at the ecm 00z ens mean charts, they will have noted that the transition to a settled outlook is looking rather unconvincing compared to recently, the gefs 00z mean looks much better in terms of a widespread anticyclonic spell eventually taking over.

    post-4783-0-39541400-1393851039_thumb.gi

    post-4783-0-59573600-1393851057_thumb.gi

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea

    Let's hope they don't have egg on their faces, Especially come the weekend when words of 'very warm' were used.

    and metcheck stating temperatures of 20c..... surely not?

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030312/gfs-0-144.png?12

     

    Another run, another evolution. The LP which yesterday was heading to Iberia and this morning was sweeping across the British Isles is now stalling as a cut-off feature in the SW Approaches. Warm, yes, but you'd think showery from that and perhaps some fog to Channel coasts.

     

    Signal for the ridging Azores HP now looking very shaky but the Eurasian HP holding firm. Not quite sure where this is going though the return of the Atlantic would be the favourite.

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    A marked difference from yesterdays 12z UKMO for Saturday...

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Quite a difference between GFS and UKMO at t144 this afternoon

     

    UKMO

     

    Posted Image

     

    GFS

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
    Quite a difference between GFS and UKMO at t144 this afternoon

     

    UKMO

     

    Posted Image

     

    GFS

     

    Posted Image[/quote

    fair to say gem called the delay in proceedings correctly though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    Quite a difference between GFS and UKMO at t144 this afternoon

     

    UKMO

     

    Posted Image

     

    GFS

     

    Posted Image[/quote

    fair to say gem called the delay in proceedings correctly though.

     

    Yep looks that way

     

    NAVGEM still not interested

     

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    Continued signals from GFS of a drier spell emerging

     

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    A long time since the south had pinks and reds showing

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

    My colleagues in Boston tell me that the weather in NE USA is now forecast to relinquish its icy grip from Thursday this week, hopefully that will benefit us further down the line. Presumably that means the Canadian PV may be starting to weaken?

    Edited by picog
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    ECM back in the high pressure game tonight

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    And into day 9/10 too

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    Posted Image

    :)

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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