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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

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Canadian ensembles still reluctant tonight to concur with ecm/gefs. So the rise in pressure is not as substantive, keeping a more nw/se split by days 6-10.

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gem ens t192 12z

Edited by draztik

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It looks like a typical north west south east split is the form horse with high pressure expanding and intensifying across most of mainland europe but lower heights to the north west of the uk persisting, that will put the nw of the uk in a strong sw'ly airflow with progressively milder air from the azores but further to the south east it is likely that a continental outflow with drier air and more sunshine will be on the way as the anticyclonic influence grows and grows beyond the next 5-7 days or so.

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It looks like a typical north west south east split is the form horse with high pressure expanding and intensifying across most of mainland europe but lower heights to the north west of the uk persisting, that will put the nw of the uk in a strong sw'ly airflow with progressively milder air from the azores but further to the south east it is likely that a continental outflow with drier air and more sunshine will be on the way as the anticyclonic influence grows and grows beyond the next 5-7 days or so.

Yes agree with that Frosty.

By day 5 some early Spring warmth starting to show for southern and central areas with the high teens quite possible by later next week.

A developing trend to raise heights right across the continent pushing the jet stream further and further north in the days ahead shown here in the day  means

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m8.gif

 

the Atlantic systems still affecting the far nw at times as you say with rain up there off and on.

A very promising outlook by later next week for many though and every chance of a number of consecutive dry days many parts of England and Wales from mid-week.

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What is strange is that when high pressure is forecast at say 10 days ahead confidence is much higher. If we had cold forecast in 10 days it's classed as FI, however we can pretty much guarantee a euro high next week...

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What is strange is that when high pressure is forecast at say 10 days ahead confidence is much higher. If we had cold forecast in 10 days it's classed as FI, however we can pretty much guarantee a euro high next week...

It's modeled much closer than 10 days ahead Ali and in fairness mean outputs have been showing this trend for a few days always around 5-6th March.

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I think its time to put my anticyclonic hat on and welcome spring instead of chasing wintry shadows like I have for the last three months..and hopefully this spring will deliver some warm and settled spells which will take us into a good summer.

Each to their own I suppose, I for one would much rather a repeat of march 2013. Remember it is more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas and March 2012 was followed by the one of the wettest summers on record. March 2013 was followed by a lovely long, warm summer. I know which one I would choose to repeat,take your pick. so I will be checking posters who are still interested and searching for wintry potential in the charts.
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The charts this morning are still showing a much more settled/warmer and dryer outlook after mid-week, it will feel very pleasant especially from the Midlands South. Goodbye Atlantic !

 

GFS.                                                                                                                                                                                                          

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ECM

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Edited by Polar Maritime
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What comes into my mind is that, for now at least, we seem to be in a pattern of longer cycles of weather type, weeks or months rather than days at a time. If this is so, perhaps the pendulum will swing the complete opposite way.

 

Completely agree with that statement OMM, and certainly stands out over the past few years.

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So how persistant will this height rise prove to be? At the moment, it apprears that the initial pressure rise drifts to our east and is replaced with another one pushing ne over the top of a shallow ciut off low drifting southeast. whilst looking a reasonably comfortable evolution with decent x model support over several runs, i would urge a modicom of caution in the 8/12 day period. Around a third of the gefs at day 10 are showing a more developed circulation close to or over part of the uk. It wouldnt be too much of a surprise to see this gap between the anticyclones filled with a more notable trough, rather than a straightforward replacement of the ridge via reinforcement from the azores. Just an observation, but the number of ecm members on yesterdays 12z run that brought sig precip to london post day 8 was notable by their increase on previous suites.

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Completely agree with that statement OMM, and certainly stands out over the past few years.

But can we infer a trend from the past few years?

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But can we infer a trend from the past few years?

 

It's certainly something to take into consideration, but not in isolation.

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Goodbye Atlantic? Well, it would appear we are headed for something more Spring like. But the Canadian model is the fly in the ointment for me this morning, as it was last night. Its op and to some extent its ens, thru days 5-10 keep the Atlantic present, affecting a lot of the country - while the other models show a more substantive ridge by this period. So as ever time will tell.

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But can we infer a trend from the past few years?

In terms of records being broken, that by itself suggests longer cycles of change for that to even happen, such as this winter and another example, the extreme cold of December 2010.This is why I think we can learn much from these long patterns when it comes to model output. Maybe other factors can be brought into model development, ones that were either previously unknown or not given enough emphasis, who knows!But certainly in my experience, I have never seen so many extremes in such a relatively short space of time as has happened in recent years.
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UKMO starting to come on board more now

 

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ECM and GFS at the same time

 

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The ECM ensemble at day 9 and 10 shows the high starting to dominate after a slight wobble at day 7 & 8

 

The first rise in pressure arrives for Thursday though the further north you are the more unsettled it will be especially in Scotland and possibly NI at times

 

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D 7 & 8 sees a wobble with the high becoming confined to the far south and eventually slipping away

 

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But its soon back

 

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Longer term rainfall charts show things becoming very dry

 

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Fwiw, the ECM London ens are not showing the possible renewed trough in the 8/12 day period with less than a 10% chance.Maybe we can go from the wettest winter to the driest spring!

Edited by phil nw.
First sentence removed because origional post was deleted.
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BBC weather for the week ahead has just say it will feel "very warm" this weekend where we get some sunshine

 

So it would appear the models were onto something after all

 

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GFS6z looks a bit weird really while the ECWMF goes with the ensembles.

 

That being said it would likely produce the better part of 2 weeks without rainfall..

 

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UKMO showing the high building nicely over in Europe next Saturday and extending over to the UK the only place to miss out on the settled weather looks to be the north and west of Scotland else where it should turn very mild and even warm when your in any sunshine

 

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GFS at t144

 

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And further on high pressure dominates only breaking down at t384

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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UKMO showing the high building nicely over in Europe next Saturday and extending over to the UK the only place to miss out on the settled weather looks to be the north and west of Scotland else where it should turn very mild and even warm when your in any sunshine

 

 

 

GFS at t144

 

 

 

And further on high pressure dominates only breaking down at t384

 

 

 

Posted Image

 

I wish the Gem would come on side, It is still insisting this settled spell isn't done and dusted 

 

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Oh golly, those day 12 and day 13 charts are something.

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