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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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From a northern hemisphere point of view there is many positives hear , decent northern blocking with a good -AO signature , the problem we have is we still have cold air pushing way south into the western Atlantic and this in turn seems to fuel low pressure systems and ramps up the jet, so despite things looking potentially good we still have the same issue .

post-9095-0-61084900-1392374343_thumb.jppost-9095-0-23305300-1392374364_thumb.jp

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Despite some talk of an end or easing of the stormy wet weather the ECM mean doesn't look much better than what we've seen for ages now

 

Day 6 Posted Image Day 10 Posted Image

 

NAEFS even worse. Reports of the stormy spell's demise been exaggerated? Perhaps not as extreme but it still looks a wet and windy pattern overall especially for late February.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Bobby
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Think the GFS has decided to spare us any more dross charts and has stopped a t192, think that is a result tbh! figers crossed the ECM, UKMET ect pick up on this trendPosted Image

Edited by Nicholas B
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GFS at 252hrs, really gone crazy, no support from any other output.

 

Posted Image

 

Indeed, and it did the same thing yesterday. Perhaps the new low-rez GFS thing is to show big Northern blocking instead of raging zonality. Either way, it's a waste of time.

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Indeed, and it did the same thing yesterday. Perhaps the new low-rez GFS thing is to show big Northern blocking instead of raging zonality. Either way, it's a waste of time.

That's where our winter has been hiding for the last 3 months, beyond T+240 hours inside a computer..Posted Image

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That's where our winter has been hiding for the last 3 months, beyond T+240 hours inside a computer..Posted Image

Actually Frosty the building blocks are put down as early as 144z on the GFS with heights showing to build to the north of us.Many on here tell all not to dismiss it's output in the longer range when zonal is the trend.I would not be too quick to disregard this blocking trend. Edited by winterof79
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Actually Frosty the building blocks are put down as early as 144z on the GFS with heights showing to build to the north of us.Many on here tell all not to dismiss it's output in the longer range when zonal is the trend.I would not be too quick to disregard this blocking trend.

 

There is a trend for blocking seeming to develop.. but south east of us. GFS is in its current placement an outlier.

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The ensembles do offer a bit of support to the idea of some sort of easterly actually. Not exactly an overwhelming signal, but its there nonetheless.

Probably be gone in a few hours but we shall see.

edit http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

control and opp not exactly poles apart at day 10.

Edited by Jason M
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I find it fascinating that what is usually the most Westerly bias model (GFS) is still sniffing an Easterly when all the other models dropped it several runs ago.

Personally I dropped the idea a couple of days ago when UKMO flattened the pattern quickly followed by ECM and JMA, even GEM isn't interested though some of those do have very weak cut off heights to the North but nothing like the ridge and block GFS is interested in throwing up in the mid term.

GFS ensembles have about 20% going for something similar that could bring an Easterly flow but with probably double that showing much more significant ridging than the other models - just that the Atlantic quickly overpowers it.

 

I don't hold out any hope GFS is correct against all the odds but I am fascinated that it has stuck with this today and the longer it sticks to its guns the more suspicious I will become. Will it finally fall in line this evening with the usually progressive 12z run? 

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Personally I'm very sceptical that this unsettled spell is ending at all. Looks a brave call by the MetOffice but the ensemble means hardly scream settled weather. In fact things could get worse if we see a scenario whereby there is some form of pressure rise to the east with fronts straddled constantly across the country. 12z shows a front 'stuck' across S & SW UK for hours, exactly where we don't need it. The synoptic situation may look less extreme but that's neither here nor there if the rain keeps falling and continues to flood you out

 

Posted Image

Edited by CreweCold
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Personally I'm very sceptical that this unsettled spell is ending at all. Looks a brave call by the MetOffice but the ensemble means hardly scream settled weather. In fact things could get worse if we see a scenario whereby there is some form of pressure rise to the east with fronts straddled constantly across the country.

 

I'm not sure they are saying it will be settled Crew, just less stormy.

Taken from their 15 day forecast from around the 22nd

"...Thereafter the unsettled theme is likely to continue but conditions are not expected to be as stormy as recent weeks. "

 

In the meanwhile GFS still much more amplified than the other models though whether it goes on to produce an Easterly flow or not?

 

Posted Image

Edited by Mucka
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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021412/gfsnh-0-114.png?12

 

Well after being told the modest height anomalies would get swept aside - they are still there now on the GFS @ 102

 

Remember the key moreso than the initial ridge is the alignment of the deep cold from Russia- if it heads west to Greenland OVER the Iceland ridge its game over-

If it gets swept SOUTH on the Icelandic ridges eastern flank we have a chance at around day 9.

 

Expect a **POSSIBLE**change tonight...

 

 

UKMO on board now at 96 - the Russian cold SHOULD get under the ridge not over it.....

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021412/UN96-21.GIF?14-17

S

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Very interesting UKMO 96h chart, smelling GFS's coffee?

It would be amazing if the Euros have to concede to GFS over this but I still think ultimately it won't be enough to bring cold to us from the East, though I do admit to being intrigued.

Edited by Mucka
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Very interesting UKMO 96h chart, smelling GFS's coffee?

It would be amazing if the Euros have to concede to GFS over this but I still think ultimately it won't be enough to bring cold to us, though I do admit to being intrigued.

 

Just slower moving bands of rain as I was saying earlier....

 

Posted Image

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No change looks likely in near future, Cold air still spilling out of North America and driving a strong jet-stream.

A brief lull early next week before the Jet begins to ramp up once again.

 

- In reality the little disturbances tracking across the Atlantic nearing day 7 may be future potentially dangerous storms systems.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Matty M
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Just slower moving bands of rain as I was saying earlier....

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

 

Shouldn't be too bad if the Atlantic breaks through and leaves a cut off high as with GFS as that will allow fronts to push through and a colder showery regime to take over behind. Could be pretty decent for the NW eventually but a bit too far out to know how cold those uppers ill be on the back of NWesterly yet.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Mucka
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- In reality the little disturbances tracking across the Atlantic nearing day 7 may be future potentially dangerous storms systems.

 

Posted Image

 

Was just thinking that myself. Seems to be picking up on the potential towards the back end of next week once again.

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021412/gfsnh-0-114.png?12

 

Well after being told the modest height anomalies would get swept aside - they are still there now on the GFS @ 102

 

Remember the key moreso than the initial ridge is the alignment of the deep cold from Russia- if it heads west to Greenland OVER the Iceland ridge its game over-

If it gets swept SOUTH on the Icelandic ridges eastern flank we have a chance at around day 9.

 

Expect a **POSSIBLE**change tonight...

 

 

UKMO on board now at 96 - the Russian cold SHOULD get under the ridge not over it.....

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021412/UN96-21.GIF?14-17

S

Scuppered by the Azores High though Steve

Posted Image

Edited by phil nw.
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Was just thinking that myself. Seems to be picking up on the potential towards the back end of next week once again.

The Jet is looking a lot less powerful than recently though so the systems are likely to be less vigorous.

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