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Paul

Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

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Yes GFS ensembles don't match the ops, and show only a very shortlived milder spell next weekend before a return to near average temperatures, with quite a few going below average - much more in line with what the GFS models were showing yesterday i.e. a temporary azores high ridge but temperatures at the surface soon returning to normal - heights most likely to build NW I would say allowing for much greater diurnal temp range with frosty nights.

 

Not often I say this but I suspect what GFS 12z was showing yesterday is the way forward i.e a temporary build of azores high NE by end of next week, but then the core of heights transferring further NW during second week with a trough developing to the NE and temperatures overall at the average with some cold nights. Many may disagree with me as the models are not showing this.

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Great thing with this period of high pressure is that (most important!) the flooding across Southern UK should get better and it should also allow a period of frosty nights which is something we havent seen this winter! This should allow the ground to cool much quicker, and therefore if we do get this high pressure maneuvering to a more favoured location for cold, it should increase the chances for snow to settle easier if it does fall!  

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Unfortunately its ensemble suite has trashed the idea of a significant temp rise as shown by the op (esp so, latter stages). An outlier if ever I saw one.Posted Image

Agreed, but it did take the control with it.

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Oh good lord. Best model runs since at least September.

 

Posted Image

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Afternoon All-

 

So im logging off for Winter...- Have a great year- see everyone in October- what a crap winter its been.

 

This week we could see an 18c in the SE-  enjoy the warmth!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

S

So it seems but if Damian is right I will hold out a branch to pull you back in.

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Afternoon All- So im logging off for Winter...- Have a great year- see everyone in October- what a crap winter its been. This week we could see an 18c in the SE-  enjoy the warmth!!!!!!!!!!  S

There have been a cluster of runs on 390721615531 suites building a block to our nw by mid month. even if that occurs, to advect cold enough temps to bring settling snowfall is way beyond what seems possible. it is just about feasible that Steve may need to pop back but I'd put it at no more than 5% at the moment.

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Looks like the tide is finally turning.  High pressure on the 500hpa Anomoanly.  Let's see how long it lasts and what direction it moves, could get into the mid 20's by April if sticks around - but I am wondering if we do get stuck in high pressure if it'll become a permanent pattern leading to another wet Summer (odds on).

 

Posted Image

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Looks like the tide is finally turning.  High pressure on the 500hpa Anomoanly.  Let's see how long it lasts and what direction it moves, could get into the mid 20's by April if sticks around - but I am wondering if we do get stuck in high pressure if it'll become a permanent pattern leading to another wet Summer (odds on).

 

Posted Image

 

some of you really are optimists

If, if!

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Afternoon All-

 

So im logging off for Winter...- Have a great year- see everyone in October- what a crap winter its been.

 

This week we could see an 18c in the SE-  enjoy the warmth!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

S

 

byee Steve, may the 528 line depart with you!

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It's better than ramping Snow that was so last year :p  - I noticed that the CET this winter was the highest we've had since way before 2007.  A thing to come?

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Checking the 12z updates from gfs and gem suggest that this pressure rise, is not nailed on by any means. In fact, in the reliable, its all looking a bit shaky. As someone said earlier, nothing clear past t96.

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GFS 12z not quite as settled this afternoon

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

UKMO still showing something more settled especially for the south

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun

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Posted ImagePosted Image

gfs & ukmo at t144. Take your pick.

 

GFS ensemble looks to be milder than the Op especially for Scotland

 

Posted Image

 

Op

 

Posted Image

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Afternoon All-

 

So im logging off for Winter...- Have a great year- see everyone in October- what a crap winter its been.

 

This week we could see an 18c in the SE-  enjoy the warmth!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

S

 

Is it to late for ensemble watch?Posted Image 

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-11-1-384.png?12

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-1-1-384.png?12

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-18-1-384.png?12

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Afternoon All-

 

So im logging off for Winter...- Have a great year- see everyone in October- what a crap winter its been.

 

This week we could see an 18c in the SE-  enjoy the warmth!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

S

Aww don't go steve, keep the faith...i'm sure there will be a cold snap in AprilPosted Image

 

The latest met office update still indicates generally unsettled weather dominating until at least mid month, especially for the north and west, further south east looks like gradually turning drier and sunnier at times with relatively small amounts of rain due to weakening fronts. It seems the settled signal for the south is still rather muted and focused more during the second half of march but the north west of the uk looks like staying unsettled and windy throughout bar the occasional cooler and calmer interlude but becoming milder everywhere so the snow on the scottish mountains is probably going to start to thaw once the jet becomes aligned sw / ne. I assume MOGREPS is not as on board regarding the settling down process as some of the freebie model output.

Edited by Frosty.

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Cracking ECM tonight showing the pressure rise very well indeed

 

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Bank!

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun

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Interesting ecm. I'm expecting its ens to distance it. The gem, gfs, navgem and jma not so bullish re pressure rise as showing by ecm op.

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I think I will still be waiting for winter to start in april, but then I'm a true weather enthusiast and don't disappear when spring arrives although I'm sure some peeps on here wish I would :-)

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I think I will still be waiting for winter to start in april, but then I'm a true weather enthusiast and don't disappear when spring arrives although I'm sure some peeps on here wish I would :-)

Not all all frosty! A disappointing and thoroughly wet winter for most, but we can still get cold snaps in Spring obviously. However, I look forward to your optimistic summer chart posting as well :p At least there are signs of a 'not so unsettled' pattern coming up with a more NW/SE split. We just need it to make it into the reliable timeframe and not see the low pressure systems push the high away.

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ECM ensemble looks decent again with a continued signal for pressure to build and last

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Well well well, ecm ens giving support to the op. the best set of ecm ens for some time at days 6-10

Posted ImagePosted Image

ecm op & ens height anomaly (days 6-10)

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