Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[chris55]

oh 17c lovely

 

 

Marked warm spike on the 12z ens as well, nice

 

[SE Blizzards]

ECM 12Z only showing one mild day next week. The rest of the run is rather cool, and remaining fairly unsettled.

 

One thing i have noticed is that High Pressure keeps getting pushed further and further back. Not a good sign for those wanting a dry settled spell.

 

If this carries on it'll be Easter before the UK see's a decent pressure rise.

 

[Scorcher]

ECM 12Z only showing one mild day next week. The rest of the run is rather cool, and remaining fairly unsettled.

 

One thing i have noticed is that High Pressure keeps getting pushed further and further back. Not a good sign for those wanting a dry settled spell.

 

If this carries on it'll be Easter before the UK see's a decent pressure rise.

 

 

You don't necessarily need high pressure for decent conditions though- the last 10 days or so have been pretty good for most and we haven't had high pressure over the top of us. 

[Man With Beard]

You don't necessarily need high pressure for decent conditions though- the last 10 days or so have been pretty good for most and we haven't had high pressure over the top of us. 

Funny, I had been thinking the same ... then I thought of how many days it had rained in the last 10, and actually it has still rained quite a bit here. So I decided that I would change my thinking from "pretty good" to "not as bad as before", in all honesty.

 

Story of the winter repeating again today, the Azores High threatens to build in at around T168-T240, but nowhere to be seen by T96-T144 with another upper trough getting shoved into the Atlantic, turning up the storm dial in so doing. Must admit, December and January I kind of expected but February has shocked me, cannot for the life of me remember such a persistent zonal pattern that looks pretty much the same on February 27th as it did on October 27th! And cannot believe that on February 27th we still can't see an end to it. Some people like Nick S saw this coming at the end of January, great call it must be said.

 

The GFS ens posted above is probably my favourite chart since early January, a clustering of runs bringing a spring scenario rather than an autumn one (given up on hoping for truly wintry ones now), and hey why not, it's showing on the charts so before it gets taken away at 10.30pm here's a little early spring beauty that might threaten the 20C mark:

 

 

[tinybill]

well with the the USA  now going  back  in  to the  deep  freeze  again. if  we  are  not careful our weather  could  be like dec -again constant  rain  /wind  from now to deep in to fantasy world it looking very wet  again

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

Edited February 27, 2014 by tinybill

[damianslaw]

Early heads up - thoughts are we will see a cold second week to March with low pressure/trough action aligned NW-SE and some proper colder polar air from a northern quarter - charts continue to hint at this with the azores high moving ever further away to the west.

[Tim Bland]

Can't believe there's no comments the 18z considering it shows pleanty of opportunity for snow. Model fatigue must be setting in and effecting even the most hard core model watchers!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=78&mode=2

[SE Blizzards]

You don't necessarily need high pressure for decent conditions though

 

I never said you did 

 

Meanwhile, GFS 18Z once again shows the potential for snow for parts of the UK for Monday/Wednesday next week.

 

 

[Purga]

On the other hand

 

Looking toasty later on

[SE Blizzards]

On the other hand

 

Looking toasty later on

 

That 'toasty' weather won't last more than a couple of days or so on this run. Cooler air soon following on from the west i would imagine.

Edited February 27, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[Captain Shortwave]

That 'toasty' weather won't last more than a couple of days or so on this run. Cooler air soon following on from the west i would imagine.

Nope, we actually have a decent Atlantic trough developing resulting in the building of some robust Euro heights

Southerly winds bringing pleasant sunshine and chilly(ish) nights. I would take that to be honest.

Though the chances of this verifying are slim as more likely the strong jet off the states will suppress ridging like it has all winter pretty much. 

Edited February 27, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Wow, looks like an early Spanish plume!! 

[SE Blizzards]

That 'toasty' weather won't last more than a couple of days or so on this run. Cooler air soon following on from the west i would imagine.

 

Voila

 

 

We are not even in spring yet, so patience is going to be required for warm settled weather lovers.

 

Don't worry though, your time will come soon enough 

Edited February 27, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[Bristawl Si]

Nope, we actually have a decent Atlantic trough developing resulting in the building of some robust Euro heights

Southerly winds bringing pleasant sunshine and chilly(ish) nights. I would take that to be honest.

Though the chances of this verifying are slim as more likely the strong jet off the states will suppress ridging like it has all winter pretty much.

Hmm.....luverly. Early warm Spring please, even though in 2nd week of March i'm in Fuerteventura. Cheltenham will be nice though.

[Ali1977]

I'm off skiing in France a week on Saturday, looks like some warmth hitting the Alps for a while at least...I wonder if this Euro high will get bowled over by the strong vortex by then.

[IDO]

As per yesterday the GEFS, support for a pressure rise, lead by the op and control continues. The mean:

 

T240:   T324: 

 

The op and control are the best for dragging in the warmest  uppers and therefore remain at the top end for temps in FI (London):

 

 

The spread highlights the doubt over where and how far north this pending pressure rise sits:  

 

The three models at T168:

 

GEM:   GFS:  ECM: 

 

So the south, at least, looking hopeful for a drier spell.

 

It does not, at this moment look like it will remain in situ for too long and what happens afterwards remains uncertain.

 

Any very cold uppers remain elsewhere though  transient cooler flows are still possible and where that HP goes as it passes through the UK from the SW may change this for us.

 

More hopeful for a drier spell this morning.

 

 

[Frosty.]

Gfs 00z op run finally derails the atlantic express with a complete pattern change to much more benign conditions with sunshine, light winds and overnight frost and fog during the second half of the run. The Ecm 00z op run is less keen but I think the outlook will slowly become less unsettled, indeed, eventually more settled the further south you are with only the far north and northwest of the uk remaining generally unsettled and windier.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Early heads up - thoughts are we will see a cold second week to March with low pressure/trough action aligned NW-SE and some proper colder polar air from a northern quarter - charts continue to hint at this with the azores high moving ever further away to the west.

Well given the winter we'v had I would normally be well on the way looking for spring now , but after your comment I did a little research and it would seem there are some subtle hints as we move through march of some winter weather , indeed the first cold spell of the season ironically , and looking just simply at the ensembles this morning there is subtle hints of this as we reach the 10th march , I will post the graph format which not only shows the op was a ridiculous outlier , but also notice the clustering of members just past -5 line at 850hpa level , easy not to see much potential there but once you look through the individual postage stamps it's clear that the clustering of cold members are indeed a cold northerly wind with a euro trough and blocked Atlantic , some more potent than others of course .Obviously it's far away so really one to keep to an eye on rather than analyse but the chances are there with seasonal change in wave lengths as we go through spring and a relaxing of the vortex , the chances of northerly/easterly outbreaks will increase , also worth noting the North Pole has been extremely cold this year and there will be lots of very cold air to tap into well into spring I feel . Could well see snowy nights followed by thaws by day . All at this stage very tentative of course.

[Mucka]

I wrote some time ago about the prospect of the Azores high ridging in from Southwest around second week of March, suggesting back then that GFS had a pretty strong signal for it and as a rule, if it is good at one thing, it is sniffing out general pattern changes in FI - it is just a case of sorting the wheat from the chaff in the ensembles when signals appear.

That does look likely now as it has appeared across all the models at times and this morning pretty much all operational output is solidly behind the idea. We have seen the models play with the idea before but as the time neared the Azores high was suppressed by more vigorous troughing than previously modelled. This time though, I think at least the South of the UK should see some settled weather as the quieting process continues and it could be fairly mild too with an early feel of Spring in the air for the South - the further North you go the more likely you will see some rain.

What I also mentioned back then was the possibility of the Azores high being displaced West with March having some Northerly outbreaks and I think this is quite likely after a more pleasant spell weather - so though this is long range and I don't do forecasts, just highlight possibilities, I fancy a colder second half to March at times with likely Northerly outbreaks. 

I will be perfectly happy if the more settled warmer spell verifies, continues and strengthens through Spring though, rather than the Azores high being slowly displaced West allowing for Northerly outbreaks as I suspect might happen toward mid March.

 

Otherwise, I still have midweek next week marked for possible wintry ppn with Monday also a possibility in the North.

Edited February 28, 2014 by Mucka

[SE Blizzards]

If you are a mildie or a fan of dryer/settled weather then things are looking better this morning from the models for higher pressure to possibly start influencing our weather (finally some might say) in around 7 - 10 days time. Things also may start to turn quite mild too.

 

GFS and ECM now in agreement with hight rises pushing up from the south.

 

 

 

 

 

Early days yet, and the charts above are still way out in FI, but maybe a trend starting to develop?

 

Who knows, maybe spring is just around the corner?

 

Anyway, i'm Just about to travel up to the midlands. Maybe i will get to see my first snowflake of ''winter' on my travels... But i won't be holding my breath.

 

P.s - See, i can post settled/mild charts sometimes, even though i don't really like them

Edited February 28, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[Purga]

The mild theme looks on course

 

Op & Control are going mild

 

 

Note that there is a significant clustering of colder runs appearing after day 9 so uncertainty evident.

 

At least it's looking somewhat drier with the current runs.

[Summer Sun]

Yet another run from GFS which brings the prospect of something milder for a time, settled and some overnight frosts cloud permitting

 

 

After this pressure drops though no where near as bad as what we've has this winter infact looking at the precipitation charts most would stay dry then pressure rises once more

 

 

In the words of Frosty

 

Bank!

 

[LadyEv06]

Bank indeed, we're off to Paris 16-21st March, may come home with a tan!

[draztik]

The EC32 shows ridging and pressure rises from the S, for a time (9 thru 16th); lower heights indicated thereafter, with weak troughing to our NW from around 17th of month onwards. The Azores then may try and push back in at very end of month. Temp anomaly shows the UK being around average to slightly above (7 thru 16th), then trending average to slightly below for the second half of month.

[Spikecollie]

Bank indeed, we're off to Paris 16-21st March, may come home with a tan!

Me too! Anything has got to be better over there than February  Les giboulées de mars can strike at any time though, but lets hope they'll stay nicely away