Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[Frosty.]

Well, after all the hype and excitement yesterday for some of us to have our first snow flake of the winter, this is what the Gfs 00z op run thinks of that idea, it blows a big long raspberry to the idea of a wintry friday.

[egret]

I think most of us can happily accept differences in views, preferences, regional perspective and differences in style and ability. What I find difficult to stomach is the frequent sniping and disrespect displayed by certain posters (aimed either at individuals or organisations).

 

The real danger is that the popularity contest becomes between this thread and similar threads on other sites. It would be a shame for NW to lose out due to the unhelpful posts of a few.

 

We need to ensure that those who are prepared to take time to analyse model outputs in detail and share their thoughts are not deterred by such sniping. Questioning or pointing out factual errors is fine -the 'peer revioew' process in action. When properly explained such challenge helps improve our understanding. Respect of others is the prerequisite. 

 

There is a valid place for both lengthy and succinct posts. The lengthy ones serve to explain in detail just how conclusions are being arrived at and I hugely value the work of Gibby, JH and Tamara to name just three who take great care to present their reasoning in some detail.

 

We have lost a number of highly respected and effective forecasters and commentators over the years and it appears that sniping and trolling lies at the root of their loss. Why should people choose to spend time and effort to contribute, only to suffer such treatment?

 

Sadly I think 'sin bin time outs' and 'total bans' might be the only answer for the more serious offenders - particularly those who lack respect or constructive contribution. Just looking at the number of viewers at any one time shows the size of the 'silent majority' who presumably appreciate the contributions being posted here.

 

Sorry to be off topic but this comment is specifically directed within the MOD thread - other threads seem to suffer less from the problem. We have plenty of humour in the S&SW regional thread, but all of it good natured.

 

I shall shut up now  (this is intended to be helpful, though doubtless others may dismiss it as a rant!) -oops, sorry Reef, just read your plea, delete this if you wish.

Edited February 27, 2014 by egret

[LeeSnowFan]

Well, after all the hype and excitement yesterday for some of us to have our first snow flake of the winter, this is what the Gfs 00z op run thinks of that idea, it blows a big long raspberry to the idea of a wintry friday.

 

I said same yesterday GFS wasn't having any of it but the METO are still confident but who knows what surprises will creep up in the next few hours 

[Summer Sun]

GFS 00z isn't so keen on much snow tomorrow now yes some is still on show but its not as widespread as a few days back, the early hours of Sunday and more especially Monday still have snow on offer for now

 

 

UKMO euro 4 (every 6 hours from 00:00 to 18:00)

 

 

Early hours of Sunday

 

 

Monday

 

 

 

[egret]

GFS 00z isn't so keen on much snow tomorrow now yes some is still on show but its not as widespread as a few days back, the early hours of Sunday and more especially Monday still have snow on offer for now

 

 

UKMO euro 4 (every 6 hours from 00:00 to 18:00)

 

 

Early hours of Sunday

 

 

Monday

 

Meto have just issued yellow alert for snow covering down to Oxfordshire and Wilts tomorrow so they are obviously not certain that Gloucester is its southward  limit

[Summer Sun]

Meto have just issued yellow alert for snow covering down to Oxfordshire and Wilts tomorrow so they are obviously not certain that Gloucester is its southward  limit

 

Yep the snow risk is further south now northern England is no longer under a warning

 

The updated warning for snow and areas under the warning can be found here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78310-winter-2013-2014-discussion-part-2/?p=2939332

Edited February 27, 2014 by Summer Sun

[cobbett]

Yep the snow risk is further south now northern England is no longer under a warning

 

The updated warning for snow and areas under the warning can be found here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78310-winter-2013-2014-discussion-part-2/?p=2939332

You have to laugh though when there is a warning and this is the text (metoffice)

 

"Rain will turn to snow for a time, mainly over the high ground during Friday morning. Over low ground it is unlikely that any snow will accumulate but some areas may see falling snow and slushy deposits for a time " 

 

Batten down the hatches, warn your neighbours - it's coming !!

[Man With Beard]

Yep the snow risk is further south now northern England is no longer under a warning The updated warning for snow and areas under the warning can be found here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78310-winter-2013-2014-discussion-part-2/?p=2939332

The small depression is now progged to go through SW England rather than SW Wales, pulling the southern flank a good way further south. It's hard to see where significant snow will fall but with some intensity, areas within 50 miles of Swindon could get a shock covering - 25% chance except on high ground where perhaps a 50% chance.I'm still suprised there are no wind warnings for the SW, EURO4 clearly showing F10/F11 winds around 70 miles off the tip of Cornwall, that's a bit close for comfort?

[Tattooed Fox]

Hi there,

 

Can anyone suggest a good weather app that is reliable please  .

[Summer Sun]

Hi there,

 

Can anyone suggest a good weather app that is reliable please  .

 

AccuWeather is pretty good along with the met office and BBC weather apps

[bluearmy]

the ecm spreads reveal that as per the last time the mean encouraged us to think that an azores extension may be coming, we shouldnt be counting on it. there must be a considerable cluster of runs which retain troughing in our vicinity.

[Tattooed Fox]

AccuWeather is pretty good along with the met office and BBC weather apps

 

Thank you very much to your help.

 

have a good day !!!!

[Frank Trough]

the ecm spreads reveal that as per the last time the mean encouraged us to think that an azores extension may be coming, we shouldnt be counting on it. there must be a considerable cluster of runs which retain troughing in our vicinity.

 

the way things have gone for the last 3 months i think it would be a good bet to keep a cluster of runs that retain troughing near the UK (you never know when you might need them), especially with no real let up in the cold over north America as yet. 

 

Until such times as the UKMO begins to show any form of pressure rise at t+120 then i'm not going to get my hopes up of something more robustly dry. Mind you, the METO 6 to 15 day outlook suggests something more friendly as we go into the second week of march. I'll keep watching and hoping!

[summer blizzard]

the ecm spreads reveal that as per the last time the mean encouraged us to think that an azores extension may be coming, we shouldnt be counting on it. there must be a considerable cluster of runs which retain troughing in our vicinity.

 

We saw last week that the ECWMF wanted to build pressure from the 4th and brought it down to day 8 before it did away with it. Now that the build is at day 8 again i imagine we'll see it dissapear or get backing from the UKMO once it reaches day 6.

 

At any rate the trough looks to amplify enough to guarantee south westerlies whether cyclonic or not.

[offerman]

AccuWeather is pretty good along with the met office and BBC weather apps

Weather HD Pro, excellent app

[Mucka]

Snow chances for tomorrow may have been downgraded but next week looks like it has possibilities, especially around midweek but it won't take much change in the flow to downgrade the projected 850's which currently look good from UKMO with plenty of showers on the back of a cold and strong West/Northwesterly

 

Edited February 27, 2014 by Mucka

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Snow chances for tomorrow may have been downgraded but next week looks like it has possibilities, especially around midweek but it won't take much change in the flow to downgrade the projected 850's which currently look good from UKMO with plenty of showers on the back of a cold and strong West/Northwesterly

 

Mucka they haven't downgraded they've just moved south , which was always going to happen in my view going by experience , but I'm not expecting much from it to be honest .

[Mucka]

Mucka they haven't downgraded they've just moved south , which was always going to happen in my view going by experience , but I'm not expecting much from it to be honest .

 

Well the 850's aren't as cold or as widespread as previous output and the metoffice yellow warning has shrunk significantly in scope - call that what you will.

I guess you are referring to the ppn band being further South but check the projected 850's past and present output and you will see how the flow is cut off and the 850's downgraded as well. I guess one man's downgrade is another man's shift in emphasis?

Edited February 27, 2014 by Mucka

[Summer Sun]

GFS still going for something more settled later next week especially the further south you are

 

 

Some very mild charts on show tonight for the south especially later next week would be very welcome after the wettest winter on record and would certainly help those recovering from flooded properties

Edited February 27, 2014 by Summer Sun

[A.J]

agree with Mucka, sadly, as far as the 12z GFS is concerned, it's not even marginal except if you're perched on a rather high mountain in Wales....Dewpoints ranging from +2C to 4C and wet bulb temps from +3 to 6C, combine those parameters with T850 temps of -1 to -3C across the area most susceptible to precip and the relevant time frames, you'll struggle to see more than the odd rogue wet flake mixed in the rain...let's hope the GFS is wrong and the other hi-res suites provide more favourable parameters for tomorrow

[SE Blizzards]

Some very mild charts on show tonight for the south especially later next week would be very welcome after the wettest winter on record and would certainly help those recovering from flooded properties

 

Doesn't last long though gav, as colder weather comes down from the North.

 

 

 

 

All academic of course as all charts you and i have posted are way out deep in FI.

 

Onto the more reliable (ish) timeframe, a definite snow risk for next week according to the GFS 12Z and UKMO 12Z.

 

Finer details will obviously firm up closer to the time.

 

 

 

One to watch for sure.

[The PIT]

Well Saturday Sunday have downgraded always a pipe hope anyway back edge snow anybody for early Monday morning??

[Summer Sun]

Early Monday remains on course for something wintry as the day progress the risk becomes increasingly confined to higher ground in Scotland

 

Edited February 27, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM has binned the building of high pressure in week 2 sigh

 

All aboard the zonal train

[Cloud 10]

the ecm spreads reveal that as per the last time the mean encouraged us to think that an azores extension may be coming, we shouldnt be counting on it. there must be a considerable cluster of runs which retain troughing in our vicinity.

 

The operational runs from a few days ago from ECM and GFS both had this similar idea...

 

ecm..  gfs..

 

...but have both very much ditched the idea as illustrated by the 12z runs today.

 

ecm..  gfs..