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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    We seem to be heading back towards low pressure pushing straight through the UK with the ECM now lining another one up

    Posted Image

     

    Some pretty cold air associated with that LP as well which would provide some "interesting"

    surface conditions if it verified.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ECM is having another go in FI to bring something more settled like it did this morning

     

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    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    It ends settled Gav but gets there via a very different route. Difficult to have any confidence, but you could say all roads lead to Rome!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    The NMM-6 shows the precip on Friday morning Just encountering the south of England and the south of Wales. Im really not sure any forecast for rain ,sleet and snow will be accurate for this time frame ,although it looks to be a Southern thingPosted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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    post-6830-0-62520500-1393445277_thumb.pn

    Edited by ANYWEATHER
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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    i'm from West Sussex, downtown L.A. Littlehampton, a true channel low would be wonderful.

     

    And its good to have you on board, if you believe, you may well get lucky too. Its just those non-believing types who only accept it when they can't open their doors for the stuff which generated the original comment I believe. Don't be too disappointed if it doesn't happen once again, we'll just have to consign this Winter to the record books for all the wrong reasons.

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    friday morning in the west midlands peeps !!  winter may finally make it on the last day (though someone from w sussex will be along shortly to disagree !)

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Purely for fun really, but tis NOT going to be a mild start to Spring one can clearly state.

     

    Some of the more interesting Snow Risk charts over the coming four to five days, note the timeframes involved in each case. Posted Image

     

    post-7183-0-94432500-1393445928_thumb.pn - Friday 28th 1800 hours

    post-7183-0-39866200-1393445929_thumb.pn - Saturday 1st March 1800 hours

    post-7183-0-33237100-1393446273_thumb.pn - Sunday 2nd March 0000 hours

    post-7183-0-02715600-1393445928_thumb.pn - Monday 3rd March 0000 hours

    post-7183-0-55214000-1393445927_thumb.pn - Monday 3rd March 0300 hours

     

    There is clearly a messy forecasting period ahead of us which sadly doesn't revolve around High Pressure opportunities for the start of Spring for those that badly need the dry weather. It will arrive at some point but yet more patience required. As for what we are to receive, I wouldn't want to place my bets on any one specific location getting snow, yet alone lying snow but the risk is there, as is the possibility of yet further flooding and strong winds. In hindsight, perhaps this is the start of a broader pattern change of sorts, time will tell I guess. Posted Image

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    The ecm op and its mean diverge latter stages of run, with the mean much less keen on any pressure rise. Low pressure still dominant, esp so the more NW you are.

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    ecm op & mean @t240

    this would tie in with American models (gefs & Canadian) mean at same timeframe;

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    Edited by draztik
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Mmm this is a tricky time to be forecasting even in the short term - its a very messy situation, so take what the models are showing 4-5 days out + with a pinch of salt as they are struggling with the 48 hour timeframe - its a developing situation, and a nowcasting situation projecting where Thursday night low is likely to move.

     

    The weekend looks very messy now, with low pressure and frontal features languishing aimlessly over the country under a chilly airmass. Indeed its quite a cold outlook for the time of year.

     

    I said a couple of days ago, my thoughts are for an unsettled and quite cool/cold first half to March with low pressure forced on a SE path across the country and the models are now indicating this at least for the start of the month. I'm not too sure about ECM tonight with its azores high ridge becoming a major scandi/euro high. Probably not until the second half of the month before we see things settling down somewhat.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

    Very early build was good in September , but it grinded to a holt in October and never moved westwards at all. Good Eurasian snow cover is a proven aid to our winter cold chances

     

    But a huge Greenie High is even better. We got the opposite.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    How ironic that the last day of the meteorological winter looks like being the most wintry day of the last 12-15 weeks. Modest hills and higher ground across the midlands, wales and northern england could have a decent fall of wet snow but low ground probably a mix of cold rain and sleet, the weekend looks rather chilly too, relative to how very mild and springlike the last few weeks have been.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    I have to admit a lot of doubt over snow potential for Friday morning, I think it will be more down to evaporative cooling than anything else as everything looks very marginal and predicted maxima look too warm for anything worthwhile at low levels. Saying that in March 2012 on a journey home from Portsmouth to Southampton I did experience a spell of heavy wet snow after a thoroughly wet morning. It didn't settle but it was quite exciting for watch so maybe some people might get lucky.

     

    From a personal point of view, I would rather be done with this winter and take some kind of blocking high close to the UK like the later frames of the ECM as the only real shots of cold we seem to get is route one from the state which always makes things marginal but one definite is a lot of rain. The ECM ensembles show a more north/south split developing but frankly how much trust can be said about the extent of any drier weather.

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    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

    GFS 18Z not in agreement with the ECM's idea of HP at days 9 / 10 

     

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    It's not until deep FI the GFS then shows some settled weather... albeit cool, with some widespread frosts.

     

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    Still no reals signs as of yet from most of the models of an early taste of warm springlike weather.

    Edited by reef
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Interesting models today..

     

    Firstly we have the snow event on Friday, now i won't comment on snow/rain but it's worth noting over the years that these events typically move further south closer to the time and indeed the 18z gives my postcode just 2.2mm tonight. It would not be a suprise if the front failed to reach here.

     

    Secondly we do appear to have a trend. Granted not many runs but the ECWMF12z backs the 0z and in addition the GFS18z builds pressure further south and west initially just 2 days later..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I have forgotton what cold weather feels like but friday 28th February could bring a loooong overdue reminder, roll on friday, wet snow could be making the headlines for one day at least.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    A wet day for the South Friday possible Snow welsh hills. Saturday night Looking interesting for the north as does Sunday night into Monday. Plenty of time for a change yet. but a cool start to spring and still possibly a more wintry one than the whole of previous winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    The rain (or snow) on Friday looks set to affect anywhere from Swansea to Kings Lynn southwards.

    UKMO

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    GFS

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    Possible snow over higher locations but probably rain at low levels unless you are lucky.

     

    Further on, there is some signs of pressure building from the south west in some shape or form after a spell of chilly weather.

    ECM

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    GFS

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    GEM

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    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Looks like GFS pressure build from the SW is garnering a little more support. The London ens:

     

     post-14819-0-32739400-1393483387_thumb.g  post-14819-0-40941700-1393483428_thumb.g

     

    The op and control are again leading the way, so temp wise they are at the top end. All in FI (from D10) so still no confidence. The GEFS remain split with a more zonal flow as likely, T240 mean:  post-14819-0-55506200-1393483906_thumb.p

     

    However GEM, that has been unusually zonal of late, is also now hinting at a pressure rise: post-14819-0-13739500-1393483615_thumb.p

     

    ECM hinting at temporary ridging? T216: post-14819-0-29607000-1393483981_thumb.g Like the GFS mean the lower pressure anomaly to our NW remains and no long term pattern change looking likely in the medium term:  post-14819-0-36061200-1393484095_thumb.p

     

    GFS op therefore probably not yet a strong bet.

     

    As for the snow risk Friday, a narrow band across the middle of the UK with rain to the south and drier further north looks the likely scenario.

     

    Fax chart t36:   post-14819-0-72742800-1393483768_thumb.g

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: North Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Decent cold spells and snow
  • Location: North Kent

    This winter is very similar to 94/95.The upside is 1995 was a beaut of a summer.

    And the following winter of 95/96 was rather good if memory serves me?  What a horrendous winter this has been.  So much optimism last October as always, only to be utterly disappointed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Once again this morning longer term prospects from ECM show something more settled developing

     

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    GFS for the same period

     

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    As we run GFS on longer the high continues to build

     

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