Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[Frosty.]

I think it's safe to say winter is almost over, no sign of anything wintry on the models which has been the story of the last 12 weeks, no cold weather has made it into the reliable timeframe, lots of mild weather has of course. :-)

[gottolovethisweather]

Looks like the fabled northerly is predictably turning into just another wet splurge. ECM shows

 

 

 

Followed by a touch of frost for some

 

 

 

 

 Yes, the briefly cooler interlude is still "bang on the money" as predicted some three or more days ago so NOTHING has truly CHANGED re: the coming weekend  despite yet further confusing posts from certain individuals.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79434-model-output-discussion-13th-feb-onwards/page-20#entry2937378

 

And I quote "By Friday, the final day of Meteorological Winter is where the GFS has consistently brought in an interesting signal with a potential undercutting low. The Dewpoints are marginal at best with regard to snow for example but it could be bring a last gasp shot wintriness for favoured parts albeit briefly and should the timing of the passage of any fronts work out favourably."

 

However, what MAY HAVE CHANGED is the tendency for the drier weather to take over, at least in the desperately soaked Southern England, although the UKMO are quite keen on something better down in my region as we enter March.

Edited February 25, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Further to my post above regarding Friday and the weekend's shenanigans, the 528DAM line is the important indicator when searching for anything by way of wintry precipitation and these two Fax Charts still hint at some HILL SNOW potential and maybe even briefly to lower levels down South too.

 

 

Quite clearly there is still hope for colder weather in amongst the milder charts shown, but most likely cold rain for a whole lot of the population once again, I imagine. More than anything, folk down in my region would probably prefer something drier but that will have to wait until Spring proper.

Edited February 25, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

No real sign of any change, I keep looking for charts in the semi-reliable which show a lessening of the Canadian vortex, (if that's the right term for it), but no real signs there, so it's as you were - Atlantic driven. Models are trying to play with the Azores high a little bit, and there may be some potential for it to occasionally tickle the far south of the country, but other than transient ridges between depressions that's about it really. I feel that until things change over northern Canada/western Greenland genuine sustained height rises over us,(or anywhere north of 50 degrees in our neck of the woods), is going to be very hard to come by. Winter might well be petering out with a whimper, (from a cold perspective anyway), but Spring certainly doesn't look very close either, (are we entering our seventh consecutive month of 'autumn' ???)

Edited February 25, 2014 by Pennine Ten Foot Drifts

[picog]

Still looking drier as we head towards March

[SE Blizzards]

UKMO 12Z looking rather unsettled. Still not much sign of a ridge/high pressure that i've been hearing about just recently

 

Wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of wintry ppn either at the weekend/early next week, more especially over high ground.

 

 

 

 

 

GEM 12Z also looks unsettled...

 

 

Edited February 25, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[gottolovethisweather]

MT8_London_ens.pngMT8_Manchester_ens.png

Still looking drier as we head towards March

 

Ish.   Maybe fewer rain bands and Jetstream driven fronts, more showery in nature towards the North and West I guess and drier towards the South and East, which is in fact similar to the UKMO thoughts. Can we nail a HP cell bang over the mainland UK remains the pertinent question, however.

UKMO 12Z looking rather unsettled. Still not much sign of a ridge/high pressure that i've been hearing about just recently

 

Wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of wintry ppn either at the weekend/early next week, more especially over high ground.

 

 

 

 

GEM 12Z also looks unsettled...

 

 

 

Yes, the HP situation is seemingly getting delayed at least, maybe the mid to latter end of the next working week will be the beginning of the much needed saving grace for parts darn Sarf.

Edited February 25, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[syed2878]

 

I think it's safe to say winter is almost over, no sign of anything wintry on the models which has been the story of the last 12 weeks, no cold weather has made it into the reliable timeframe, lots of mild weather has of course. :-)

i think u will be safe to say this winter is over frosty. Because this winter hasn't even started for it to be over. Again models today has been uninspiring just like the last 12weeks story of this extended autumn. Lets c what the 12z throws at us. What's the ecmf 32 day showing for march?

[draztik]

  i think u will be safe to say this winter is over frosty. Because this winter hasn't even started for it to be over. Again models today has been uninspiring just like the last 12weeks story of this extended autumn. Lets c what the 12z throws at us. What's the ecmf 32 day showing for march?

 

The long range ecm is far from inspiring; brief ridging into March, before lower heights to our NW seemingly take over - some say story of this extended Autumn, I'd agree. It should be pointed out that any troughing shown is weaker compared to what has been shown recently - so tho it may be unsettled, it doesn't look on par with the stormy conditions of early Feb.

Edited February 25, 2014 by draztik

[Cloud 10]

UKMO 12Z looking rather unsettled.

 

 

 

Not the start to spring most will be looking for from the UKMO this evening,with a deep channel low

which would bring heavy rain and gales especially to Southern areas.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U96-21UK.GIF?25-18

 

No support for a low that deep from the other models,so maybe the ukmo going off on one.

[shaky]

Maybe it wont be just rain!!snowfall might be a problem across the midlands and wales!!!ukmo looks interesting and so does the ecm which is out to 72 hours now!!!

[Cloud 10]

Maybe it wont be just rain!!snowfall might be a problem across the midlands and wales!!!ukmo looks interesting and so does the ecm which is out to 72 hours now!!!

 

Thats the spirit. 

 

 

ECM and UKMO at 96 hrs for comparison.

 

ecm..  ukmo..

[Captain Shortwave]

Maybe it wont be just rain!!snowfall might be a problem across the midlands and wales!!!ukmo looks interesting and so does the ecm which is out to 72 hours now!!!

In January maybe, but at the end of February with the continent currently experiencing double figure maxima to nearly that point I would put snow chances at around zero. UKMO is just gruesome for the south.

ECM has also gone all Pete Tong, better prep the canoe again.......

Edited February 25, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[shaky]

Thats the spirit. 

 

 

ECM and UKMO at 96 hrs for comparison.

 

ecm..ECM1-96.gif  ukmo..UW96-21.gif

lol!!!our last chance of snow I feel (settling snow anyway for a long period of time)!!ukmo and ecm look in pretty good agreement out to 120 hours infact ecm better with the slacker flow which will hopefully mean a higher chance of snow!!

[Mucka]

Cool and unsettled is the theme from the Euros which are much less keen than GFS to have Azores high influence our weather and bring more settled less cool conditions at the front end of March.

Plenty of snow for Northern hills if the Euros are right and possibly some wintriness to lower levels at times.

 

Edited February 25, 2014 by Mucka

[SE Blizzards]

Not the start to spring most will be looking for from the UKMO this evening,with a deep channel low

which would bring heavy rain and gales especially to Southern areas.

 

Nope, certainly not the start to spring that many are looking for, but i'll be happy enough as i'm hoping for a very cool spring 

 

ECM  12Z out to 144h

 

 

Unsettled and Cool just about sums it up.

 

I wonder if Darren Bett/Met Office are as confident of dryer weather for next week as they were a couple of days ago? Or has the signal been muted somewhat?

Edited February 25, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[bluearmy]

having not commented on the past two sets of output, it seems we are trending colder. given the thicknesses below 528 dam and uppers -4/-5c, i wouldnt be surprised to see some wintry stuff at elevation in the south of the uk. midlands northwards most definately at risk. it seems the wintriest charts of the winter are trying to just edge into feb but will probably be in march. given the lack of any cold air nearby, its a shame for coldies but probably sums up this season quite well. if the charts become any more 'wintry' in nature, we might see steve popping back !

[Dean E]

In January maybe, but at the end of February with the continent currently experiencing double figure maxima to nearly that point I would put snow chances at around zero. UKMO is just gruesome for the south.

ECM has also gone all Pete Tong, better prep the canoe again.......

 

The continent can cool dramatically over just a few days in the right conditions. Would not rule out snow for higher elevations in the South/Midlands

 

ECM 12z 

 

 

+96hrs

 

 

-4c uppers moving in for the Midlands.

 

Some will say this is a clutch, but its something thats been showing over the last few runs. A few models have the idea of a channel low as well.

 

One to watch

 

SM

[Summer Sun]

An unsettled and at times cool run from ECM tonight still the chance of some snow over high ground at times next week and maybe some sleet at lower levels in the north at times its not until deepest FI that we see something milder

 

-4 850's dominate ECM tonight

 

 

Then its all change at the end

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Its quite striking that the gfs shows more of a blocked outlook at T+240 than the ecm! Makes a change! Anyway models have desolved any lengthy dry periods and it seems the Atlantic has won again, albeit with some notable cold rpm air in the mix. So a normal Marchfest and the Atlantic weather wont have the severe stormy spell of late in the outputs.....

[winterof79]

A little to cheer at least.It has been hard this season.

http://www.weathercharts.net/noaa_ukmo_prognosis/PPVJ89.gif?31415

http://www.weathercharts.net/noaa_ukmo_prognosis/PPVK89.gif?31415

 

The further north and with elevation the better.

[Stuie]

The continent can cool dramatically over just a few days in the right conditions. Would not rule out snow for higher elevations in the South/Midlands

 

ECM 12z 

 

ECM0-0.gif

 

+96hrs

 

ECM0-96.gif

 

-4c uppers moving in for the Midlands.

 

Some will say this is a clutch, but its something thats been showing over the last few runs. A few models have the idea of a channel low as well.

 

One to watch

 

SM

Fellow clutcher you have a partner. I make it -4 uppers and some back edge snow in the Anglia region via the GFS HD precipitation chart. Red lines also, never seen that before.

Time frames slightly out but the jist is there. This is probably my last straw clutch as I have to spend all my time now speaking to my chilli seedlings.

Edited February 25, 2014 by StuieW

[ANYWEATHER]

Well I think it's time to roll you know who out,and who would have thought that without so much as a sleet shower here,she could have belted a tune out on December 1st.....

 

 

http://youtu.be/dIVfbylUU-M

Tbh. I would not rule out Wintry weather in March! Never say never with the weather, its all full of some nasty and nice surprises!  The most volatile month is March and it can give us just about every type of weather you can think of, regardless if youre on top of a mountain or down on low ground in southern England!! And as for the fat lady, she will have to wait a while before she calls time on Winter  

Edited February 25, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[Stuie]

Tbh. I would not rule out Wintry weather in March! Never say never with the weather, its all full of some nasty and nice surprises!  The most volatile month is March and it can give us just about every type of weather you can think of, regardless if youre on top of a mountain or down on low ground in southern England!! And as for the fat lady, she will have to wait a while before she calls time on Winter  

True but could you imagine the irony if there was and it was only Summer left in here to post the charts. Please don`t speculate and keep to what the charts are saying, it is the model thread after all  

[Purga]

Some 'bonkers' ideas about potential snow - zero chances with ECM showing a mild trend eventually and plenty of rain again

 

Forget the cold folks it ain't gonna happen this time round it's one of those years let's face it.

Next winter may be better so let's hope for a decent Summer to cheer us all up.