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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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I mean come on, really? That is well outside the scope of reliability and nothing you've referred to in your post supports this extremely bold claim.

Otherwise a reasonable post, why spoil good work with absolute nonsense?

 

 

No problem. Its only my opinion of what the charts are showing and they may well prove to be "nonsense", I certainly hope soPosted Image

 

I am sure if i said at the start of December I expect it will be zonal for the next three monthsPosted Image I would have been called worse; guess whatPosted Image

Sophocles was spot on, "no one likes the messenger that brings bad news".Posted Image

 

Hope Severe Siberian IB instinct's are rightPosted Image

 

Both ECM and JMA are back on script for this awful winter:  post-14819-0-98952500-1392319675_thumb.g post-14819-0-11459900-1392319686_thumb.g

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The outputs this afternoon do not look that great from a cold perspective but I do not

believe everything that I see in the model output and would suggest that what the models

are now showing may well be underplaying the amplification in the pattern ahead.

T120 onwards is still very much up in the air so to speak (no  pun intended).

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The outputs this afternoon do not look that great from a cold perspective but I do not

believe everything that I see in the model output and would suggest that what the models

are now showing may well be underplaying the amplification in the pattern ahead.

T120 onwards is still very much up in the air so to speak (no  pun intended).

Well the charts you said were wrong for the past couple of weeks turned out to be correct, with no real background signals to drive a pattern change except the gradual waning of the cold and unstable conditions over Canada, then it's more likely we will we pressure rise from the south rather than from any other direction. Whilst there might be weak heights to our north, all they will probably do is help bring more rain to the UK as low pressure is forced between the two competing high pressure systems.  

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Well the charts you said were wrong for the past couple of weeks turned out to be correct, with no real background signals to drive a pattern change except the gradual waning of the cold and unstable conditions over Canada, then it's more likely we will we pressure rise from the south rather than from any other direction. Whilst there might be weak heights to our north, all they will probably do is help bring more rain to the UK as low pressure is forced between the two competing high pressure systems.

Like most now I think, im looking forward to the slow inevitable death of the PV in mid spring
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Well the charts you said were wrong for the past couple of weeks turned out to be correct, with no real background signals to drive a pattern change except the gradual waning of the cold and unstable conditions over Canada, then it's more likely we will we pressure rise from the south rather than from any other direction. Whilst there might be weak heights to our north, all they will probably do is help bring more rain to the UK as low pressure is forced between the two competing high pressure systems.  

I think you may have your wires crossed. I have said for days now we would see a more amplified

pattern with heights to the north/northeast developing due to the strat warming we had.

This would develope from  mid February along with colder weather which I then put back

to the last third of February several days ago. I also said that we would not see strong

blocking like 2010 etc but shallower heights but heights none the less.

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LOL was the Ecm 12z that good? Roll on spring.

 

Very much so now, I think we have all had more than our fill of this Winter. It is starting to look like the last week of February, far from being cold as I had hoped is going to quite mild if the ensembles are t be believed which is fine so long as it is drier.

Somehow though don't we just know March and April are going to have a colossal Greenland block so we don't get a Spring either. Posted Image

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Very much so now, I think we have all had more than our fill of this Winter. It is starting to look like the last week of February, far from being cold as I had hoped is going to quite mild if the ensembles are t be believed which is fine so long as it is drier.

Somehow though don't we just know March and April are going to have a colossal Greenland block so we don't get a Spring either. Posted Image

 

As far as I'm concerned, Spring starts around the middle of April, just like November is pretty much autumn. The seasons have altered slightly in the last few years. Second half of September - October - November and early December are autumn, January - Feb - March are winter. Spring starts in April - May and ends in early June. I'd more than welcome a full rinse and repeat of last March, though I agree that April is for sunshine and something more comfortable.

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I think you may have your wires crossed. I have said for days now we would see a more amplifiedpattern with heights to the north/northeast developing due to the strat warming we had.This would develope from  mid February along with colder weather which I then put backto the last third of February several days ago. I also said that we would not see strongblocking like 2010 etc but shallower heights but heights none the less.

 
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As far as I'm concerned, Spring starts around the middle of April, just like November is pretty much autumn. The seasons have altered slightly in the last few years. Second half of September - October - November and early December are autumn, January - Feb - March are winter. Spring starts in April - May and ends in early June. I'd more than welcome a full rinse and repeat of last March, though I agree that April is for sunshine and something more comfortable.

Much as a repeat of last March would be nice, there's been absolutely no roots for one laid down in the form of previous easterly incursions this winter which makes me feel one  of any note isn't possible. And there's more hints of spring than winter looking into deep FI on GFS 0z

Edited by Timmytour
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No agreement at short range yet

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021400/gfsnh-0-120.png?0

GFS building heights to our n/ne at 120z which obviously then takes a differing route

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021400/gfsnh-0-144.png?0

UKMO not doing

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021400/UN120-21.GIF?14-06

 

GFS keeps toying with this from day to day.

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GFS tries desperately to bring in a cold spell this morning, but as usual computer ultimately says no. Ensembles are poor as well so no support anyway.

All other models are pretty much as expected this morning. Still, I suspect a lot of people will have more pressing concerns today and this evening :-(

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No change from GEM. By D10 the PV has been on its movements and is now regrouping towards our NW: post-14819-0-66906300-1392360837_thumb.p

 

A very flat pattern for our sector of the NH.

 

The GFS op during this lull allows heights to the NE that inevitably sink south and the UK is again missing out on the cold flow. This is back to square one where the PV regroups and the block slowly eases east and the PV eventually sends another wave of rain and storms:

 

D10: post-14819-0-83758300-1392361023_thumb.p  D12: post-14819-0-78341100-1392361043_thumb.p D16: post-14819-0-72419200-1392361072_thumb.p

 

I am not sure another block too far to our east is what the doctor ordered, that would just mean a delay to the inevitable. Though some drier weather in the interim would be welcome.

 

But then again the Control from the GFS rings a zonal flow from start to finish:

 

D10: post-14819-0-27701700-1392361248_thumb.p  D16:  post-14819-0-23861100-1392361261_thumb.p

 

ECM is a slower version of GEM, by D10 the PV is still on its travels but is only a few days away from its Canadian home:

 

post-14819-0-99886900-1392361404_thumb.g  No sign of amplification from start to finish.

 

The GEFS have five members with heights to the NE/E and the spread shows that is the main area that has to be resolved:

 

post-14819-0-13870400-1392361534_thumb.p  

 

Those five members are all similar to the op, the heights are non-sustainable and they sink. So by T300 the two main clusters are again full on zonal or a slacker flow with temporary heights close to the UK: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=300

 

By D16 all but a couple of members are now zonal.

 

The mean: post-14819-0-11704100-1392361793_thumb.p London enspost-14819-0-97172600-1392361836_thumb.g

 

Very little sign of cold or snow for the south with temps on the way up in FI. The fact the GEFS with the heights to the NE do not amount to a lot all suggests that we have a locked in Atlantic pattern for the medium term.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Good morning. Here is this morning's report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday February 14th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
 
All models show another powerful depression moving NE towards Ireland today and on across the UK to lie to the East of Scotland tomorrow. heavy rain will move north and NE across the UK today, heavy at times and falling as snow in the North, especially over the hills. Severe gales will follow the rain as SE winds veer SW and West later with damaging gusts likely along the South and West coasts later accompanied by squally showers. Then with a showery day tomorrow Sunday is shown to be a quieter day with bright spells and scattered showers before all models show a new but less intense depression move in from the West on Monday with more rain for most but lighter winds.
 
GFS then shows next week as very changeable with further Low pressure areas to the North with bands of rain and showers moving East over the UK interspersed by shorter drier periods at times in temperatures gradually recovering to average or somewhat above average levels in the South. A brief drier and very mild spell is shown in the South later in the run which could make things feel positively springlike for a time.
 
UKMO today closes it's run towards the end of next week with Low pressure close to the NW with further SW winds and troughs crossing the UK with rain at times in average temperatures.
 
GEM keeps things very mobile and largely unsettled through the latter stages of it's run with rain and showers never far away from any one place in temperatures close to average and fresh breezes from a Westerly point.
 
NAVGEM is also unsettled looking in a weeks time with Low pressure to the NW driving bands of rain and showers East across the UK in blustery winds.
 
ECM is also relatively unsettled too but does show some mild air on SW winds wafting over the South later with much of the rain from fronts close by affecting anywhere at times but always more prolific in the NW.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts which give a good indication of the weather type likely in 9 and 10 Days time indicate the UK is most likely to be still affected by Low pressure out to the West or NW with a relatively mild and unstable SW flow with occasional troughs bringing spells of rain and showers across all areas at times.
 
 
 
The GFS Ensembles show a very turbulent spell of weather overall with many members maintaining Atlantic domination throughout with strong westerly winds with periods of rain and showers in temperatures near or somewhat above average.
 
The Jet Stream Forecast is still very dominant in the way the weather affects the UK and after a weakening next week is shown to re-strengthen again through Week 2 near to or just South of the UK promoting more depressions and rainy weather for the UK.
 
In Summary the emphasis still remains on largely unsettled weather for the next few weeks with further rain at times for all. However, it looks like next week will be less wet and certainly less stormy than this week gone with outbreaks of rain more sporadic and less widespread overall. Having said that there is still some worrying charts especially later in the period that could indicate a return to more very wet and windy conditions with the attendant problems that such charts would bring. What no model shows this morning is anything reliably dry under High pressure nor anything cold and wintry as temperatures look like being close to or above average in the South for at least a time next week.
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the 6-10 anomaly charts, whilst not agreeing with one another, have for at least 2 days, shown the suggestion of some kind of temporary blocking north (be that nw or ne) of the UK. Hard to call but it will only be temporary judging by the consistent 8-14 day charts from NOAA. Below are the links to the last outputs from all 3 main outputs. 

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

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the 6-10 anomaly charts, whilst not agreeing with one another, have for at least 2 days, shown the suggestion of some kind of temporary blocking north (be that nw or ne) of the UK. Hard to call but it will only be temporary judging by the consistent 8-14 day charts from NOAA. Below are the links to the last outputs from all 3 main outputs. 

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

Yes, +ve anomalies still appearing either Norwegian Sea or E Greenland this morning, but unfortunately the lows are still squeezing through from the west from later next week and beyond after brief ridging mid-week.

 

post-1052-0-77077000-1392370801_thumb.pnpost-1052-0-73412800-1392370824_thumb.pn

 

Jet looks highly zonal and progressive upstream across the N Atlantic and N America, which doesn't really favour any prolonged ridging over the UK. The hope is that lows will be less intense when they return after a few days respite mid-week, though EC does throw in deep one towards the NW later next week.

Edited by Nick F
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Actually northern parts of britain have some cold and wintry weather on the Ecm 00z but for many it's another rain and wind fest, even deep lows crashing in through FI and then ending with a euro high and a sw/ne aligned jet with milder air from the azores / southern europe pumping north eastwards across the uk with the most unsettled weather becoming more focused on the north west of the uk, the south and east becoming drier at times and very mild.

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A few glimmers of hope today for something drier in the coming days.

 

After today's LP, the next system coming in from the W has been shown consistently as a filling system by the models, becoming absorbed into the main LP to the N and NE. As I see it, we have a small window of opportunity the middle of next week with a chance for HP to nose down from the N and NW. This ties in with what John was saying about anomalies, and also with the fact that we currently have a small 500mb high cell over SE Greenland.

 

post-13989-0-99066900-1392371839_thumb.p

 

It all depends on whether the LP in the W Atlantic mid-week next week develops and turns N rather than NE and some 500mb troughing occurs behind it. This might be enough to increase heights ahead of it to support rising pressure. The 120H UKMet chart today shows this possibility:

 

post-13989-0-32199400-1392371999_thumb.p

 

The other models are kind of vague at this point, showing no real amplification that might help, but it might become clearer in future runs today. As I recall, the GFS had suggested this on and off for some days, but, as ever, high uncertainty remains.

 

I remain convinced that a pattern change is coming, slowly to be sure, but on its way. Even the possibility of a pressure rise over the Continent would be welcome right now, as shown by the ECM. Anything to stop this never-ending rain!

 

 

 

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It does feel this winter that the models have not quite got the operational models correct from day six onwards. I've seen a few posts this morning showing op's from days 10 to 15 and I think that is fine if people are trying to show the broad scale NH pattern. But for detail IMO it's folly. Personally I'm looking forward to the results of the experiment that Steve m undertook 3 or 4 days ago regarding the 12z's from ECM and GFS. Besides interest for us in the north continues. But we shall see.

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As you were in the short term modelling to day 6.

 

In the longer term both the ECWMF and GEM do build heights over Europe though away from the south east it would likely be a largely cloudy or even wet pattern as pressure is relatively low with a strong stream from the Atlantic, it's plausible that this could look better as we get closer.

 

GFS was much more keen to builds heights over Scandinavia but fell back to supporting the heights over Europe position in very late FI.

 

Posted Image

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A few glimmers of hope today for something drier in the coming days.

 

After today's LP, the next system coming in from the W has been shown consistently as a filling system by the models, becoming absorbed into the main LP to the N and NE. As I see it, we have a small window of opportunity the middle of next week with a chance for HP to nose down from the N and NW. This ties in with what John was saying about anomalies, and also with the fact that we currently have a small 500mb high cell over SE Greenland.

 

Posted Imagehemi1_00hr140214.png

 

It all depends on whether the LP in the W Atlantic mid-week next week develops and turns N rather than NE and some 500mb troughing occurs behind it. This might be enough to increase heights ahead of it to support rising pressure. The 120H UKMet chart today shows this possibility:

 

Posted Image [url=http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=207655]met_120_140214.png[/url

 

The other models are kind of vague at this point, showing no real amplification that might help, but it might become clearer in future runs today. As I recall, the GFS had suggested this on and off for some days, but, as ever, high uncertainty remains.

 

I remain convinced that a pattern change is coming, slowly to be sure, but on its way. Even the possibility of a pressure rise over the Continent would be welcome right now, as shown by the ECM. Anything to stop this never-ending rain!

I saw only just this morning a night anomaly chart for 10-12 days time which shows a strong scandi ridge with troughing to the west , but importantly the uk having an easterly air flow , it's really bugging where I saw it cause I just can't find it anywhere Iv searched all the forums and can't see it !

I really do hope for a change in the near future . Like John h said we have a test bite somewhat next week , really anything past t144 is liable to change anyway so maybe once we can get the hights to out north next week we can see something develop from there. I understand that it's not to preferred outlook by what's been churned out at the minute but it is a possibility given the time of year for the vortex to start to weaken its grip.

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