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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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ECM following on from its 00Z run with high pressure building later next weekend before that we get north to north westerly winds to start spring

 

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Then from Sunday pressure builds

 

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ECM ends on a settled note with pressure building nicely its nice to see high pressure appearing just in time for Spring with some very welcome settled weather for all those affected by flooding this winter

 

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Thanks SS, signs from more than one model tonight that the Azores High may be back from its hols soon to settle the UK down, after months of low pressure. A dry start to spring may be achievable. A little more of a Southerly draw and it might even be quite mild?
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Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Saturday February 22nd 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
 
All models show another week of unsettled weather to come with rain and strong winds at times alternating with spells of brighter weather with showers. Temperatures will stay largely near average throughout as winds look like continuing to blow from a Westerly point and continue to be strong at times. Low pressure will remain to the North or over the UK for much of the time but by the end of the week subtle changes in the synoptic pattern make for radical changes in the weather over the UK from next weekend.
 
GFS shows the second half of it's run with a cold Northerly flow next weekend with wintry showers for many for a time. High pressure builds steadily behind this short period and allowing fine and sunny conditions by day and frosty nights at the start of week 2. Further out in the run a North/South split seems likely as Westerly winds bring rain at times over the North while Southern areas continue to see drier and brighter weather and little if any rain.
 
UKMO shows Low pressure moving away East near Denmark next Friday with a cold Northerly flow with wintry showers and frosty nights looking likely next weekend.
 
GEM tonight shows a brief northerly next weekend before the briefest of ridges crosses the UK from the West. Thereafter renewed Low pressure slips South over the UK and away to the South as pressure builds to the North. The net result of this would be rain and showers turning wintry in rather cold air as winds veer Easterly later.
 
NAVGEM shows Low pressure to the East next weekend with sunny spells and wintry showers giving some snowfall over the hills as well as introducing frosts by night.
 
ECM tonight shows much drier conditions developing next weekend and the following week following a short colder interlude under Northerly winds and wintry showers and frosty nights. High pressure builds steadily from the SW to form a large centre just to the SW at the end of the run with milder NW winds flowing around the High later.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts still remain somewhat reluctant to follow the operational wholeheartedly but are at least slowly coming around to the idea of brighter and drier weather at times, most likely towards the South but not completely removing the risk of rain amost anywhere given that pressure remains much lower on the mean than that on the operational.
 
 
 
The GFS Ensembles tonight show a slow cooling of the pattern over the UK though at the same time there are strong signals of conditions becoming much drier, especially over the South later.
 
 
The Jet Stream Forecast tonight indicates the flow moving North over the Atlantic following the demise of the seemingly endless procession of the flow close to the South of England for the next week or so. As a result of the move High pressure builds up from Southern latitudes towards the South of Britain.
 
 
In Summary the momentum for better weather continues to grow pace tonight as all models indicate varying degrees of a migration North or NE of High pressure down near the Azores. In the meantime there is still more rain and strong winds to get through this coming week before the weather perks up with a colder period of weather with wintry showers is the precursor to better conditions than of late, especially in the South where dry weather could for the first time for months become the most dominant factor of the weather. Temperatures after a colder interlude look like returning quickly to average by the end of week 2.
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And so the cycle may be complete. 

 

With a snowless winter today saw double digits breached, daffs are coming out as are tulips and now the GFS seems to be sniffing ridging.

 

Autumn may well simply become spring..

 

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A few lucky spots could reach 13 or possibly 14 celsius today, the most favoured areas for this being parts of north wales and north west england and for the rest of us, a mild day with temps between 10-12 celsius...it's been a mild week and today could be the mildest so far.

 

The Gfs 00z op run shows a lot of unsettled weather with spells of rain and strong winds, especially during the week ahead but nothing as severe as recently, and it's not all bad news either, high pressure does look like building across the south of the uk from time to time with occasional ridging for all areas bringing dry and bright weather with light winds. Temperatures generally on the mild side but with some incursions of cooler rPm air, especially for scotland, no sign of anything wintry on this run apart from a slight frost at times.

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Edited by Frosty.
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And so the cycle may be complete. 

 

With a snowless winter today saw double digits breached, daffs are coming out as are tulips and now the GFS seems to be sniffing ridging.

 

Autumn may well simply become spring..

 

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Things are really stirring. I shall be miffed if we have signs of easterlies this late in the season.  But "March winds and April showers" will do me.

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Good morning. Here is my Sunday review of the midnight outputs issued by the NWP for today Sunday February 23rd 2014 as featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm. I am now including links to the data from which each section of my report is compiled.
 
All models show a mild and broad SW flow across the UK with Low pressure to the NW. A trough lying SW to NE across NW areas is shown to slip SE through today and accelerate away East overnight to leave a Westerly flow briefly tomorrow before an active Low pressure systems streams in off the Atlantic towards NW Britain on Tuesday. So after rain in the NW this morning makes it's way across the UK today and tonight a showery interlude follows tomorrow before a fast moving spell of rain crosses all areas tomorrow night and Tuesday morning leaving a couple of blustery and showery days towards midweek with fresher temperatures.
 
GFS then shows a new Low cross into the UK later in the week and take a turn SE across the near Continent next weekend. This ushers in colder weather following a wet end to the working week. Showers will be wintry in the North and East before a ridge moves across from the west or NW damping down any showers and leading to a cold and frosty period next Sunday. Thereafter a typical changeable regime develops under Westerly winds with some rain at times chiefly in the North. The South will see rather drier weather for longer with High pressure never far away from the South and temperatures generally will return closer to average though still rather chilly in the North between weather systems.
 
 
The GFS Ensembles show very changeable conditions today with Low pressure trending to come down from the NW in Week 2 maintaining a changeable theme with rain at times and snow over the hills, chiefly in the North. The South is shown by many members to have some reasonable drier interludes in accordance with High pressure close to the South or SW at times.
 
 
UKMO closes today with next Saturday being a breezy and cold day under NW winds around Low pressure positioned over NW Germany. The weather will be generally showery with wintry showers over all high ground, dying out from the West later.
 
 
GEM also introduces colder weather from the weekend. A wet end to the working week under Low pressure is replaced by North or NW winds and wintry showers over the weekend. Then further rather cold and unsettled weather with some snow in places occurs to start next week as another Low pressure slides SE across the UK and away to the SE by midweek.
 
 
The GEM Ensembles though changeable do indicate a lot of dry weather to be found from next weekend on as High pressure is in much closer attendance at times, especially over the South. Some rain events are shown, chiefly in the North and while temperatures shouldn't get too low some frosty nights are likely at times.
 
 
NAVGEM today ends it's run with a slack and unstable North backing West flow next weekend with wintry showers in places before more places become dry by the start of the new week.
 
 
ECM shows a cold and unsettled weekend with wintry showers especially towards the East and SE before things settle down early next week as a strong ridge builds NE over the South from the Azores with bright sunny days and frosty night. By the end of the run the North has become cloudier and milder under a slowly freshening SW flow.
 
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean charts do show some support for the operational again this morning, albeit in a more diluted form. In general it points towards a trend for Low pressure to be held well to the NW with a much closer Azores High towards the UK than has been shown for a very long time. The net result would most likely be for any rain to cease across the South with most if not all restricted towards the Northwest. With winds shown to have a maritime influence but much less strong than of late there will likely be a lot of cloud floating about with temperatures returning to close to average values by the middle of next week.
 
 
 
The Jet Stream Ensemble group still point towards the flow elevating to a more northern latitude across the Atlantic through week 2 supporting the better conditions possible for the UK after this week.
 
 
In Summary this morning it still looks strongly likely that there may be something a little more hopeful in the weather once we have got through what will be another unsettled, windy and often wet week to come. Over next weekend we will likely see a transition period involving a spell of colder NW or North winds with some wintry showers as Low pressure slides away SE over Europe. With the Jet Stream buckling strongly North over the Atlantic at that point pressure will rise strongly towards Southern Britain and while the North may see this as a rather transitory pause in the unsettled Atlantic regime Southern areas may hold on to it rather longer giving flood stricken areas much relief with several days if not longer of fine and benign weather with temperatures never desperately low much with an increased risk of night frosts which we haven't seen for so long.
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I think the summary above has it about right, unsettled westerly to start then veering to a colder NW flow and later N'ly as the upper ridge becomes dominant from the Atlantic with a surface ridge developing pretty much over the UK for a time. Thus drier for most areas by next weekend. Whether anywhere will see any snow other than the hills in the north is debatable. Frost becoming quite a feature and possibly some fog under any clear skies beneath the high. As to the furthest outlook, say 12-15 days out then it is possible that the Atlantic may take over again, more for the NW rather than the flooded areas of the SW and south thankfully.

some idea of the upper air events from the morning output from ECMWF-GFS this morning

 

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I think the summary above has it about right, unsettled westerly to start then veering to a colder NW flow and later N'ly as the upper ridge becomes dominant from the Atlantic with a surface ridge developing pretty much over the UK for a time. Thus drier for most areas by next weekend. Whether anywhere will see any snow other than the hills in the north is debatable. Frost becoming quite a feature and possibly some fog under any clear skies beneath the high. As to the furthest outlook, say 12-15 days out then it is possible that the Atlantic may take over again, more for the NW rather than the flooded areas of the SW and south thankfully.

some idea of the upper air events from the morning output from ECMWF-GFS this morning

 

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Agreed, but I have to say the Gfs 00z op run is a milder version of the above description so hopefully we are in for a frostier spell with a higher risk of wintry ppn from the end of the week.

Edited by Frosty.
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After the winter of 1947 and the record breaking cold, there followed 15 consecutive months of above average temperatures.After the winter of 2013/14 and the record breaking rainfall, I wonder if the models are showing us the start of a spell of consecutive months drier than average?  

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Current trend seems as per Met Office, Cold NW'ly with Snow showers , NW / Cheshire Gap sort of area , with sunshine in between. Followed by low pressure systems trying to come in from the West after a brief ridge crosses SE . Only half trend of note this weekend , is the PV seem's to want to move East again during week 2 . 

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