Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[Tim Bland]

Cold rain with snow on high ground which turns to snow everywhere soon afterhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=2

 

Not on the GFS run it doesn't. All very marginal so any snow confined to the high ground. ECM would be more favourable though.

Maybe some experienced members could do with some help on reading the charts lol.  On that GFS run it does show snow!

[MP-R]

Yes it's quite odd to see a synoptic chart of that sort with a precipitation chart that shows no snow over the UK. I wouldn't read much into it. I'd expect the ppn. chart to show more snow if the situation says the same or a change in the synoptics if we're going to get rain.

[The PIT]

Maybe some experienced members could do with some help on reading the charts lol.  On that GFS run it does show snow!

Several factors say marginal hence the statement marginal. Evaporative cooling may give a hand on the latests run but still no cold uppers. Later when the dewpoints and other factors get a lot better you then haven't the precipitation shown

[Captain Shortwave]

Maybe some experienced members could do with some help on reading the charts lol.  On that GFS run it does show snow!

Again it's very marginal, never really any prolonged period of snow (except at beyond 10 days out) and (this is the big one), The GFS snow charts are very very poor at actually forecasting snow which has been said on many occasions. Of course either way actually seeing one snowflake would be considered a good result considering the winter we have had.

Still looks a reasonable chance of something colder developing, but again the question is how cold and will it snow?

Edited February 21, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

As per this mornings runs virtually all of the UK will continue to see above normal 2m temperatures for at least the next 8 days

 

 

Normal 2m temps centre, expected temps far right

 

Across the pond in the USA some places will take 2m temps some 14c to 16c below normal

 

[Cloud 10]

 

 

Across the pond in the USA some places will take 2m temps some 14c to 16c below normal

 

 

 

Very much the theme of winter 2013/2014 for those temperature anomalies and looks to 

continue as we head into spring.

 

Notice also the positive anomalies over the Arctic set to continue as well. 

 

[The PIT]

Well in deep fi just getting in FI all models show the cool northerly plunge GFS possibly the best of the bunch. Quite interesting that all models are persisting with the idea and bringing it forward. Now at T168 onwards. UKMO maybe on-board by tomorrow evening.

Edited February 21, 2014 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

Still the chance of something cooler as winter ends and spring arrives

 

 

t216 and t240 has something more settled but still chilly more so at t240 for Scotland

 

Edited February 21, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Tamara]

The pattern upstream relaxes for a time, much as expected, and the jet stream coming out of NE Canada accordingly relaxes somewhat too.

 

 

 (uncertain) much longer term ensemble data suggests renewed cold to return stateside as we head closer towards the end of February and we know by now what that could mean this side of the atlantic under this vortex regime.

 

for now, continued unsettled weather seems likely but with the lows of less intensity and southern areas taking less of the brunt of these with some longer drier intervals in between rain bands.

 

Beyond the 8 to 10 day period needs to be watched as to how any *possible* reloading cold pattern stateside may manifest itself. This might well return the unsettled weather more generally southwards once more - but there are too many uncertainties about that for now, and it seems the longer term GFS ensembles are the most bullish about returning to the US freezer. it seems ECM ensembles are picking up on this too

A few edited parts from a post last week highlighted once more for continuity

 

I agree wholly with sentiments expressed on here over recent times that there are only so many times one can keep repeating the same script for this interminable westerly pattern and only so many different ways of re-hashing this script.

 

However, the weather patterns are oblivious to human opinions and carry on regardless - pattern changes or no pattern changes.

 

So, to pick up on those highlights -  we have seen that *relative* relaxation of the pattern as expected with a respite since the weekend of the stormiest conditions. However we still see a regular unsettled/changeable pattern in place - it somehow feels positively anticyclonic though compared to what we have become so used to ...despite the fact that rain and showers still occur pretty much daily in many places!!

 

So after a drier pause, at least in some eastern parts this weekend, those ensemble indicators suggesting a return to something of a more vigorous pattern as mentioned in the previous post have stayed consistent, and further rain and strong winds is advertised more generally again as we head through next week. However, as previously expected, there is no suggestion of anything as intense as last week.

 

This next burst of atlantic activity is in response to yet another surge of arctic air from Northern Canada that is set to drive south through NE states continuing their very cold winter spells over there right to the end of winter and into Spring, and coinciding with, and accentuating another sub tropical jet streak heading downstream across the atlantic.   

 

Sea temperature anomalies are fully indicative of the long established entrenched pattern. Reference a while back was given to the obvious warm water anomaly in the eastern Pacific which has been cyclically perpetuating the High pressure H500 anomaly there through the whole winter, and helping to cement in place the teflon coated Canadian vortex ; but we also see amongst the localised cold water anomalies right on the eastern US coast, the mixed pockets of much warmer water anomalies scattered in the western atlantic down to the Bermuda area, where the STJ has been crossing and heading downstream, that have been exacerbating temperature gradients as cold air from the Canadian vortex spills south from the NE US states and into the atlantic ocean.

 

 

 

Some attempted half hearted amplification and faux trough disruption in the 8 to 10 day period has been suggested in some recent modelling, and is still ongoing too, however this is clearly the result of some of the matured lows at the surface decaying and extending into Europe - but with the upper trough/vortex firmly pinned in the H500 anomaly placed exactly where it has been for the last two months and more. This, as predictably as ever, sure to limit and restrict any attempted *relatively* colder quieter incursions that might follow the next rather more active phase next week, and with the pattern rapidly flattening out once more and probably further lows arriving. There has never seemed likely any chance of anything beyond bland and weak surface pressure rises further north than mid latitude - aside from the usual temporary over amplificational phantoms that the models occasionally have fleetingly shown us this winter.

 

In some very superficial ways, it's rather reminiscent of the period in mid January, but this time with no Scandinavian High pressure (way too far back to the east) and/or significant cold pool close enough to us in place to be of real interest.

 

Even if those were present there to tempt us - the fact that any model teases would very probably lead to nothing when combined with the fact that the end of official winter would moderate them anyway, then perhaps it is just as well

 

I think that this evenings suggested day 7/8 ECM chart (just f.e) is as illustratively suitable as any this winter to show us the "best" likely to realistically be mustered in terms of "cold potential"

 

 

 

Not a great deal then...

 

Exit this most miserable and forgettable of winters - roll on the longer days, and at some stage (surely!) some better weather.

[Stuie]

There is something very deja vu about this ECM chart. Flippin HP all over Europe again. Seems like years ago now but early Jan ish.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022112/ECM1-240.GIF?21-0

 

Edit: 

Edited February 21, 2014 by StuieW

[ANYWEATHER]

There is something very deja vu about this ECM chart. Flippin HP all over Europe again. Seems like years ago now but early Jan ish.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022112/ECM1-240.GIF?21-0

 

Edit: 

Yes , but take no notice of the ecm at this range, its a poor performer as of late, my favourite is Gfs, its done exceedingly well with this winter

[Stuie]

Yes , but take no notice of the ecm at this range, its a poor performer as of late, my favourite is Gfs, its done exceedingly well with this winter

I suppose the votes flooded in for the GFS, true.... 

 

The ye olde ECM for the 1st of March does have the Anglian regions with -4 uppers and there is a shower about so who knows. The blisters on my hands from straw clutching is embarrassing now.

[Jonathan Lang]

Both the ECM and the GFS are wanting to begin weakening the PV over canada slightly in FI so maybe a sign of the end of this pattern? 

 

...or perhaps I'm being too hopeful? 

[damianslaw]

Haven't posted in here for 3 weeks as I had a feeling the charts would be offering more of the same - which they have, but had an inkling that it would be around now that stirrings of a pattern change would start to emerge, and there are increasing signs that as we enter March we will begin to lose the influence of such a powerful atlantic and perhaps draw influences from a northerly quarter at least to begin with but more concerted efforts of higher heights having more of an influence as we move deeper into the month.

 

The coming week will remain very unsettled with further bouts of wind and rain from the west, but there is a strong signal that the trough will begin to stretch coming unstuck against heights to our east and energy will be transferred south allowing for a cool flow from the north. Both ECM and GFS show such a scenario developing come next weekend and the UKMO model is showing such direction.

 

Early March has delivered many a northerly airstream on the back of a long period of atlantic ascendency - 1995, 2004, 2005 being great examples.

 

Longer term - I suspect the azores high will become a major player ridging NE into southern parts and consequentially lets hope drying things out a bit.

 

When did we last see a few days of relatively dry fine weather? Seems a lifetime ago.

[damianslaw]

A few edited parts from a post last week highlighted once more for continuity

 

I agree wholly with sentiments expressed on here over recent times that there are only so many times one can keep repeating the same script for this interminable westerly pattern and only so many different ways of re-hashing this script.

 

However, the weather patterns are oblivious to human opinions and carry on regardless - pattern changes or no pattern changes.

 

So, to pick up on those highlights -  we have seen that *relative* relaxation of the pattern as expected with a respite since the weekend of the stormiest conditions. However we still see a regular unsettled/changeable pattern in place - it somehow feels positively anticyclonic though compared to what we have become so used to ...despite the fact that rain and showers still occur pretty much daily in many places!!

 

So after a drier pause, at least in some eastern parts this weekend, those ensemble indicators suggesting a return to something of a more vigorous pattern as mentioned in the previous post have stayed consistent, and further rain and strong winds is advertised more generally again as we head through next week. However, as previously expected, there is no suggestion of anything as intense as last week.

 

This next burst of atlantic activity is in response to yet another surge of arctic air from Northern Canada that is set to drive south through NE states continuing their very cold winter spells over there right to the end of winter and into Spring, and coinciding with, and accentuating another sub tropical jet streak heading downstream across the atlantic.   

 

Sea temperature anomalies are fully indicative of the long established entrenched pattern. Reference a while back was given to the obvious warm water anomaly in the eastern Pacific which has been cyclically perpetuating the High pressure H500 anomaly there through the whole winter, and helping to cement in place the teflon coated Canadian vortex ; but we also see amongst the localised cold water anomalies right on the eastern US coast, the mixed pockets of much warmer water anomalies scattered in the western atlantic down to the Bermuda area, where the STJ has been crossing and heading downstream, that have been exacerbating temperature gradients as cold air from the Canadian vortex spills south from the NE US states and into the atlantic ocean.

 

 

 

Some attempted half hearted amplification and faux trough disruption in the 8 to 10 day period has been suggested in some recent modelling, and is still ongoing too, however this is clearly the result of some of the matured lows at the surface decaying and extending into Europe - but with the upper trough/vortex firmly pinned in the H500 anomaly placed exactly where it has been for the last two months and more. This, as predictably as ever, sure to limit and restrict any attempted *relatively* colder quieter incursions that might follow the next rather more active phase next week, and with the pattern rapidly flattening out once more and probably further lows arriving. There has never seemed likely any chance of anything beyond bland and weak surface pressure rises further north than mid latitude - aside from the usual temporary over amplificational phantoms that the models occasionally have fleetingly shown us this winter.

 

In some very superficial ways, it's rather reminiscent of the period in mid January, but this time with no Scandinavian High pressure (way too far back to the east) and/or significant cold pool close enough to us in place to be of real interest.

 

Even if those were present there to tempt us - the fact that any model teases would very probably lead to nothing when combined with the fact that the end of official winter would moderate them anyway, then perhaps it is just as well

 

I think that this evenings suggested day 7/8 ECM chart (just f.e) is as illustratively suitable as any this winter to show us the "best" likely to realistically be mustered in terms of "cold potential"

 

 

 

Not a great deal then...

 

Exit this most miserable and forgettable of winters - roll on the longer days, and at some stage (surely!) some better weather.

 

 

I wouldn't be too certain of a dominant westerly airstream as we move into March - there are stirrings the azores high could ridge sufficiently NE to kill of the atlantic advances at least in the south and thus weaken its influence in the north at the same time.

 

March sees the northern hemisphere undergo rapid changes in response to increasing strength from the sun and land warming up markedly those cold anomalies over NE USA/east Canada will undergo some rapid warming over the coming weeks..

[Tamara]

I wouldn't be too certain of a dominant westerly airstream as we move into March - there are stirrings the azores high could ridge sufficiently NE to kill of the atlantic advances at least in the south and thus weaken its influence in the north at the same time.

 

March sees the northern hemisphere undergo rapid changes in response to increasing strength from the sun and land warming up markedly those cold anomalies over NE USA/east Canada will undergo some rapid warming over the coming weeks..

I've been saying for a while now in previous posts about shortening wave lengths and natural seasonal changes having an impact and it will happen at some stage - however we need to see consistent modelling at the 10 day period, and more, that this is going to happen that soon. There are no predictions at this stage for the cold in North Canada to break down, albeit the jet stream could well start to head north in our atlantic sector

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Friday February 21st 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show the current showery Westerly flow giving way over the next 24 hours to a stronger but milder SW flow and fronts moving into NW Britain through tomorrow. This then moves SE through tomorrow and Sunday with some quite large rainfall amounts over the hills of the North and West and later in the South and East late Sunday and into Monday. Then under a complex Low pressure system setting up over Northern Britain before midweek the weather will remain very unsettled and often wet and windy with SW gales accompanying persistent rain and more westerly gales with showers following on behind.

 

GFS then ends the week on a colder note as deep Low pressure edges to the East of the UK with a cold wrap around of Northerly winds affecting the UK with wintry showers up and down the and before a drier day or two when frosts could occur as a ridge of High pressure crosses East. The rest of the run sees the weather remain changeable with further Atlantic fronts and Low pressure's with attendant rain and wind alternating with brighter showery conditions and also the occasional colder interlude under a ridge of High pressure.

 

UKMO tonight ends the run with Low pressure to the North of the UK with an unstable Westerly flow with further showery rain at times and temperatures close to the seasonal average.

 

GEM also shows very changeable conditions prevailing with rain or showers at times with some short colder interludes with wintry showers or dry weather with some night frosts. No sustained periods of dry weather look likely with the likelihood of further Low pressure and attendant rain never far behind.

 

NAVGEM keeps a lot of unsettled weather going over the UK later next week with rain and showers turning wintry with time as winds turn NW towards next weekend.

 

ECM shows a change to colder weather towards next weekend following an unsettled and windy, showery week as Low pressure slips away towards the East and turns winds into the North for a while with wintry showers. Then later still the weather settles down briefly as a ridge tumbles down over the UK with Westerly winds returning behind it.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show Low pressure out to the NW with a link to Low pressure over Europe. As this morning there are some members which show a tenuous link of the Azores high to one over Eastern Europe while the likelihood for the UK is still rather unsettled weather with rain at times in a trough somewhere near the UK.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The GFS Ensembles tonight show very changeable conditions persisting for virtually the entire run with rain and showers at times in fairly average temperatures. Late in the run a pattern change to something more settled under High pressure seems possible with rather lower temperatures and frosts at night as a result.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

 

The Jet Stream reflects the ensemble data by transferring the Jet flow high over the Atlantic and Iceland late in week 2 allowing a strong ridge of High pressure to build across the UK at last. Until then it's position remains constant down to the South of the UK with several more depressions bringing copious rain and showers from UK based Low pressure through next week.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0

 

In Summary the weather still shows some signs of change towards the end of next week and weekend. Whether it is a notable weather change or just a temporary phase remains to be seen and there is some evidence even at this range that the Atlantic will prove to strong. In the mean time it's business as usual for the next week or so with rain and showers for all in blustery winds before the aforementioned change could result in something rather drier and colder with frost at night.

[nick sussex]

I think both tonights ECM and GFS might have raised a little interest if this was mid winter but both really don't have much cold to tap into, any cold potential window is short.

 

This mornings ECM was more promising with that finger of cold and then energy sliding more se, it does however look good for those off skiing with low heights over southern Europe producing a lot of snow at elevation.

 

Maybe too much! Overall the winter looks like going out on a cooler note, its hard to believe we're at the end of February already.I actually think for the UK this has been worse than 88/89, that was very mild but at least didn't deliver the constant monsoon.

[Tim Bland]

What we would have given for a chart like this in Jan!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=336&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

[Tim Bland]

Not a bad northern hemisphere profile! Is it too little too late though?!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=384&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

[Tony27]

what a kick in the goolies 18z has northern blocking galore but no cold air to tap into

[Tim Bland]

what a kick in the goolies 18z has northern blocking galore but no cold air to tap into

I doubt it will happen, but IF it did then the cold would follow - look at the -20 uppers starting to feed west http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=384&code=0&mode=1&carte=1

[Tony27]

even that isn't guaranteed something could stop the cold uppers getting to us and they might get stuck in scandi or the cold uppers go into france, anyway that is like T400 we are talking about, it would be amazing if we did get -10 -15 uppers in mid march though just like last year, only this time i would actually hope to see some snow and not just cold wind

Edited February 21, 2014 by Tony27

[SE Blizzards]

Just a reminder of what March can bring if things fall into place.

 

Last year for example...

 

 

 

It couldn't happen again could it, nearly a year to the day? 

 

Tonights 18Z below...

 

Cold uppers approaching from the North East.

 

Oh well, we live in hope 

Edited February 22, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[March Blizzard]

What we would have given for a chart like this in Jan!http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=336&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

What I'd give for a chart like that...on 7th March 2014! Edited February 21, 2014 by March Blizzard