Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[MisfitDog3]

Where have all the other posters gone? Not difficult to answer. This particular forum is not really objective model discussion and hasn't been for a long time. The problem is particularly bad during the Winter months when the hunt for Red October...sorry...cold

...occupies 80%+ of the posts and god help anyone else who tries to moderate or look anywhere but that. Others have moved away from posting on a regular basis and now many of the short term cold fanatics have naffed off there is a void. I love net weather but this problem has been getting worse for a while....

[Tim Bland]

18z goes for cold zonal of sorts. Plenty of snow for high ground http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=312&code=0&mode=2

[Frosty.]

I'm not surprised there has been a huge drop in interest as most of us feel shattered by this awful winter, something like 30 depressions..its enough to make anyone depressed, and there is more wet and windy weather on the way for sunday and more lows next week. Hoping for a cold blast in early march.

[PolarWarsaw]

Where have all the other posters gone? Not difficult to answer. This particular forum is not really objective model discussion and hasn't been for a long time. The problem is particularly bad during the Winter months when the hunt for Red October...sorry...cold...occupies 80%+ of the posts and god help anyone else who tries to moderate or look anywhere but that. Others have moved away from posting on a regular basis and now many of the short term cold fanatics have naffed off there is a void. I love net weather but this problem has been getting worse for a while....

 

I see your point, but I think this year is much worse. Not only has there been zero cold weather, but the very same monotonous and frankly depressing pattern has been established since about, oh mid November. It was always bound to go quiet in here when it was clear winter had no chance of getting going whilst the continously horrific weather wouldn't budge.

 

I disagree with the site just having a cold bias, you can guarantee come June, if there's charts showing 35c or a massive plume with a high chance of storms then the MOD discussion will be brimming with new posts. I'm afraid to say certain periods of the year have certain weather bias and that's just human nature. In winter, weather enthusiasts want it to be cold and snowy, in Spring they want some t-shirt weather, in summer - heat and sun.

 

If you flip things over and we get the wettest summer imagineable, do you think by the last week of August this place will be brimming full of posts about summer and heat, or do you think it will be deserted in the knowledge that any proper summer weather is virtually gone as we head into 6 months of Autumn and winter? I can tell you know, it'l be dead with people not really interested in the output and it's depressing similarity. 

 

Back on topic and I'm afraid to say, the FI charts showing high pressure have been as faulty, if not more faulty than the ones showing FI cold this winter. Lots more cloud and rain to come IMO.

Edited February 20, 2014 by PolarWarsaw

[Bobby]

The thread is dead because this winter is dead I suppose, 7 days left and it looks like becoming increasingly wet across the south once more after somewhat of a respite of late. The rainfall accumulation charts are starting to look familiar.

 

 

Models indicating a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic towards the end of the month which could bring chilly polar maritime air for a time, then looks to flatten with westerlies returning as the jet fires up towards us powered by the ever present PV to the NW

 

 

ECM ens mean at day 10, NAEFS

 

 

Edited February 21, 2014 by Bobby

[Frosty.]

After 3½ months of torrential rain, flooding, storms and gales with 30+ depressions and average / mild temperatures...the Gfs 00z op run shows a blast of cold zonality in FI followed by a Northerly toppler and there is potential for reloads with the jet generally aligned north west / south east..i'm hopeful of a spell of cold zonality by the end of next week and through early march.

Edited February 21, 2014 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

I don't believe it.... a genuinely cold chart

 

[MR EXTREMES]

I don't believe it.... a genuinely cold chart

 

indeed john h eluded to this a couple of days ago and its coming closer in terms of time frame to soon too get to excited but its a very realistic evolution.

 

the odd one out is the ukmo all the rest dive a shortwave se into europe.

Edited February 21, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z op run shows a cold snap by the end of next week into early march with widespread frosts and a risk of snow in places which is nice to see, so there is support from the gfs and ecm ops for a colder period on the way with a higher risk of snow, ice & frosts in around a week from now. In the meantime, more rain and gales at times.

[The PIT]

Yup as Frosty says. ECM still holding onto the cold short snap and dropping in even colder uppers -8. GEM kills it off failing to pull in any real cold air so a downgrade from yesterday. GFS likewise no cold uppers JMA on the way out. Times are bad when I'm rambling on about Deep FI. I'm surprised it's stayed on the runs for so long and the broad agreement bar the upper cold air is fairly impressive.

[Heisenberg]

Morning all,

 

Can I just say to the regular posters, that just because no one is posting alot, doesnt mean that we arent reading. I dont post a lot in here because im still learning and TBH I wouldnt want to get the grief that some posters have to endure so I mainly limit myself to my regional thread. But please dont stop posting. We are still reading (well I am anyway)

 

Cheers to all of the regulars who make this forum so much fun

 

Lloyd

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here is the latest report from the midnight outputs from the NWP for today Friday February 21st 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show an unstable westerly flow through the day with showers, focused particularly on the West, some heavy with hail and thunder and snow on Northern hills. Through tonight and tomorrow the flow backs SW and strengthens but stabilizes somewhat across the South with a dry and windy day likely tomorrow while the NW become wet. Through Saturday night and Sunday this wet weather moves SE to reach most areas by Sunday evening clearing to blustery showers in the Northwest later. After a very showery and breezy day on Monday another vigorous Low moves in from the West with further rain, showers and strong winds through the day.

 

GFS then shows the remainder of next week as unsettled and wet at times with strong winds as further Low pressure trundles across England from the west eventually bringing colder weather in with some sleet or snow over hills later quite a long way South for a time. Late in the run the trend back towards a broad Westerly flow across the UK occurs hence milder weather again and rain at times, this more especially in the North.

 

UKMO today closes it's run with a weakening Low pressure over Scandinavia with a moderate NW flow across the UK with wintry showers towards the North and West with colder conditions for all.

 

GEM today also shows a colder blip later next week as Low pressure pulls away from the SW allowing a brief Northerly flow before the flow backs Westerly and warms up again later with some rain creeping down from the NW.

 

NAVGEM ends it's run with Low pressure out in the North Sea with a West then North flow bringing further rain and showers, turning into wintry showers from the North later.

 

ECM also shows Low pressure crossing Southern Britain late next week with wind and rain in abundance but followed by a cold northerly flow next weekend with wintry showers and night frosts and temperatures much lower for a time.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show a traditional late winter setup this morning of an Azores High pressure, an Eastern European cold winter High and Low pressure up to the NW. The result is a Westerly flow for the most part with some modules showing a tenuous link between the Azores and the Eastern European High allowing a drier and colder phase though not all support this as pressure remains relatively low over the UK with a broad trough nearby or just to the East of the UK continuing the risk of rain at times in average temperatures.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

The GFS Ensembles show a very spread set later in the run though overall conditions remain close to average made up from a split of milder and colder options. Rainfall amounts although quite frequently occurring through the run do not show any alarmist amounts and it shows signs of becoming drier later towards the South.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

 

The Jet Stream while slacker at the moment looks like strengthening again next week before it ridges North over the Atlantic later lifting the UK into something possibly better weather wise as pressure builds to the South.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&carte=0&mode=3

 

In Summary most models still predict somewhat better conditions slowly developing as we move through the second week of this morning's output. This looks to be brought about by a ridging North of the Jet flow over the Atlantic which after allowing a deep Low to slip SE across the South late next week with yet more rain brings Northerly winds and colder weather and sets up a UK ridge with frost and wintry showers for a time before it looks then to slip into Europe and develops a more traditional NW/SE flow in the far reaches of the output as High pressure resides more appropriately closer to the South to maintain better conditions here at least. All this still seems a long way out and can all too easily change over the coming days and before we get there we have at least another week of often wet and windy or bright and showery conditions to get through.

Edited February 21, 2014 by Gibby

[Summer Sun]

Virtually all of the UK will continue to see above normal 2m temperatures for at least the next 8 days

 

 

Normal 2m temps centre, expected temps far right

 

Across the pond in the USA and temperatures are falling once again for many

 

[legritter]

Well next friday is the last day of February will real winter appear to grace our storm battered Island with a blanket of the white magical stuff .well quite possibly looking at current charts , I can see the headlines now ,Councils caught out as Snow blankets UK ,Snow minister appointed ,At this range its a fair shot and we do need to see some upgrades but could be our best shot yet ,Frosty is working on the charts now ,and Joe Lamminate will be making his predictions after another 14 runs of the main models ,and i predict record posters will flood back onto the Forum ,it certainly as been a very interesting winter period and i think we all need to read some of the posts of early December ,if only to remind some of us ,including myself that we did not know what was around the corner ,i think our winter will be a good learning tool to professionals as well as Amateurs .

[Frosty.]

Virtually all of the UK will continue to see above normal 2m temperatures for at least the next 8 days

 

 

Normal 2m temps centre, expected temps far right

 

Across the pond in the USA and temperatures are falling once again for many

 

It's about time we had some of that cold weather, the yanks have stolen our winter.

[Purga]

Well next friday is the last day of February will real winter appear to grace our storm battered Island with a blanket of the white magical stuff .well quite possibly looking at current charts , I can see the headlines now ,Councils caught out as Snow blankets UK ,Snow minister appointed ,At this range its a fair shot and we do need to see some upgrades but could be our best shot yet ,Frosty is working on the charts now ,and Joe Lamminate will be making his predictions after another 14 runs of the main models ,and i predict record posters will flood back onto the Forum ,it certainly as been a very interesting winter period and i think we all need to read some of the posts of early December ,if only to remind some of us ,including myself that we did not know what was around the corner ,i think our winter will be a good learning tool to professionals as well as Amateurs .

I wouldn't get to excited, despite the seemingly tasty synoptics it looks like cold rain

 

 

 

 

Before it reverts to 'business as usual' and anything later in the 06z is just fantasy.

[summer blizzard]

Not a bad FI for eastern England..

 

[Tim Bland]

I wouldn't get to excited, despite the seemingly tasty synoptics it looks like cold rain

 

 

 

 

Before it reverts to 'business as usual' and anything later in the 06z is just fantasy.

Cold rain with snow on high ground which turns to snow everywhere soon after

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=2

[MR EXTREMES]

I wouldn't get to excited, despite the seemingly tasty synoptics it looks like cold rain

 

 

 

 

Before it reverts to 'business as usual' and anything later in the 06z is just fantasy.

And how does this equate to cold rain very misleading post.

[johnholmes]

The 00 and 06Z runs from GFS are not that dissimilar to the ECMWF 00z output to about 168h, especially in terms of the main pattern. They also agree with the main idea from the 500mb charts of a coldish west to SW surface flow. Essentially through this period Pm or rPm type air with low pressure systems embedded in this flow giving slightly milder Tm air at times for southern regions.

 

Further unwanted rainfall amounts in the next days for those not wanting any more but the worst does seem likely to be N and W of the main affected areas.

 

The anomaly charts, after their ‘blip’ of 24 hours or so have settled back into the idea suggested above rather than any major northern blocking. More from the Atlantic upper ridging and its effect on the surface than from any real northern blocking. Cold enough for the hills to get some snow or sleet at times but little probability of it at low levels in the south. A continuing good spell for the Scottish ski resorts already smothered in deep falls at the higher levels.

[The PIT]

Cold rain with snow on high ground which turns to snow everywhere soon afterhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=2

Not on the GFS run it doesn't. All very marginal so any snow confined to the high ground. ECM would be more favourable though.

[Purga]

And how does this equate to cold rain very misleading post.

Can't you read a precipitation chart?

[MAF]

Can't you read a precipitation chart?

well i cant read one. but then maybe thats why i tend to never come in here much as it seems there has to be a pre-requisite of knowledge before you can post

[Bobby]

well i cant read one. but then maybe thats why i tend to never come in here much as it seems there has to be a pre-requisite of knowledge before you can post

 

The white crosshatching indicates snow so that particular chart is indeed showing cold rain.

[Man With Beard]

Must say I'm just a little encouraged at the amount of runs giving us a break from the Atlantic onslaught between T168 and T240. I get the impression that the jet might buckle in the Atlantic - maybe just maybe we will get some sort of pattern change allowing more variation in our weather.