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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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So at T+240 the gfs and ecm don't shout mild or cold, but they don't shout about anything else either...I expect the output at that stage will be mere twaddle,,  Perhaps in the next few days we will see some different output, I cant help but assume ,that giving some experience of weather, over many years, we will all see a big change, in the near future, The Atlantic train cannot go on forever. its not about "if" but "when" and this is of course depending on what kind of weather you like, but it will change,we wont escape itPosted Image

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Good evening. Here is the latest report using the midday data from the NWP for today Wednesday February 19th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
 
All models continue to show a generally unsettled and windy picture and whilst the weather will be less severe than anything we have seen of late there will still be some unwelcome rainfall for flood stricken areas over the next 4-5 days with sunshine and showers in between a band of rain tomorrow and again later on Sunday.
 
GFS then shows next week as continuing unsettled and windy with further rain at times, some heavy and persistent and with the chance of severe gales for a time. Temperatures will often be fairly mild but rather colder at times too with some wintry showers falling on the hills of the North at times.
 
UKMO shows Low pressure to the North of the UK and a strong Westerly flow delivering rain, showers and strong winds to all of the UK at times in average temperatures.
 
GEM also shows very unsettled weather with strong winds and heavy rain at times as deep Low pressure areas continue to dominate the UK weather, positioned close to Northern Scotland at first while later in the run Low pressure slips South with colder conditions with further rain at times and snow on hills.
 
NAVGEM is also very unsettled looking with deep Low pressure crossing the UK with rain at times, some of which will be heavy and persistent with sunshine and showers in between with temperatures close to average.
 
ECM tonight shows an unsettled period too but still likes to pull Low pressure away South later in the run allowing less wet and colder conditions to affect the UK later in the run as pressure rises under a ridge over the UK pushing the Jet flow North over the Atlantic.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts indicate a UK trough at the end of the period with gently rising pressure. It doesn't however endorse the operational view of the strongly risen pressure over the UK intead keeping pressure quite low with a further surge of Low pressure looking likely from the NW in the days to follow.
 
 
 
The GFS Ensembles continue to show average temperatures most likely for the next two weeks with a reduction in rain amounts likely by the end of the run.
 
 
The Jet Stream shows the flow stronger next week powering up some more powerful depressions again next week before late in the run the flow is shown to pull well North all the way to Iceland at the end of the run.
 
 
In Summary there is still a lot of unsettled weather to come before any chance of better conditions arrives. Being that such improvements are all at arms length still there is a lot of wet and windy weather to come with Low pressure in total control to the North. Improvements when they do arrive are likely to come from an extension of the Azores High which could be accompanied by a pressure rise to the North too which if occurs could give an end at last to the procession of Atlantic Lows that has afflicted the UK now for nearly 3 months and bring some welcome relief to the UK. On the other hand being as it is so far out in the future currently it could all amount to nothing and we continue with the status quo.
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Turn to page 3 Posted Image

ECM mean continuing to show a UK trough into week 2 but with signs of the Azores high edging in somewhat from the South west.

I really don't believe anything from the ecm or gfs at that range...as I said mere speculationPosted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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Edited by ANYWEATHER
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below is the latest from NOAA 6-10 and 8-14, 6-10 is fairly similar to the EC-GFS morning output.

They do offer the most promising looking anomaly outputs for several weeks if you are a cold fan, still far from a done deal but I'll keep you updated!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

And just in time for spring, perfect timing

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And just in time for spring, perfect timing

I think the anomaly charts have been rubbish all winter in terms of cold potential which goes to show how impressive they have been overall, unlike the weather, which has been generally abysmal for the last three and a half months. Hopefully we will see the model output start to show the promising improvement in the anomaly charts..SOON! Edited by Frosty.
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below is the latest from NOAA 6-10 and 8-14, 6-10 is fairly similar to the EC-GFS morning output.They do offer the most promising looking anomaly outputs for several weeks if you are a cold fan, still far from a done deal but I'll keep you updated!http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

As Frosty mentions, I think a pattern change to continental air is 75% likely to be too late for a proper cold spell. There also needs to be a considerable reload of cold from the Arctic as there was last year. We're now at the stage where one factor is not enough, we need several factors to combine to get it cold, unless we can get a direct Northerly.However, the trend on ECM and GFS (and indeed the chart you show above) to lessen the intensity of upper trough at around T192 is welcome in itself. Although, a slow moving weak trough could also mean rain bands moving through more slowly if we're unlucky.
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I think the anomaly charts have been rubbish all winter in terms of cold potential, rather like the weather really. Hopefully we will see the model output start to show this amazing improvement in the anomaly charts..by mid march maybe?

 

IF the pattern they show at 6-10 is still there in 3 days and is then picked up by the 8-14 NOAA, then, starting with say the date tomorrow, as being about the start if verified, then 26-28 February would be around the time the cold would start to arrive?

 

Note all this is IF, about 35-50% I would offer today?

As Frosty mentions, I think a pattern change to continental air is 75% likely to be too late for a proper cold spell. There also needs to be a considerable reload of cold from the Arctic as there was last year. We're now at the stage where one factor is not enough, we need several factors to combine to get it cold, unless we can get a direct Northerly.However, the trend on ECM and GFS (and indeed the chart you show above) to lessen the intensity of upper trough at around T192 is welcome in itself. Although, a slow moving weak trough could also mean rain bands moving through more slowly if we're unlucky.

 

 

It would not be continental, more like NW-N for the air source

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As Frosty mentions, I think a pattern change to continental air is 75% likely to be too late for a proper cold spell. There also needs to be a considerable reload of cold from the Arctic as there was last year. We're now at the stage where one factor is not enough, we need several factors to combine to get it cold, unless we can get a direct Northerly.

However, the trend on ECM and GFS (and indeed the chart you show above) to lessen the intensity of upper trough at around T192 is welcome in itself. Although, a slow moving weak trough could also mean rain bands moving through more slowly if we're unlucky.

Well we haven't even had a 12 hour Northerly toppler during the last 4 months, I would like to think we have a chance of an Arctic blast during march, at least the sst's will be at their lowest and the arctic will still be bitterly cold, so any northerly should pack a punch if we have a change in fortune from mud and floods to snow showers and sharp frosts. that would be one giant leap considering the total dross we have had for the last 16 weeks...yes i'm including movember whiskers month tooPosted Image .

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Its almost like for the past few years the uk is Two months behind where we should be for this time, we get winter in spring, spring in summer etc etcLO

I was just thinking the same thing, I believe we have paid a heavy price for the warm settled first half of autumn, I think this is one of the reasons for the lack of winter, it's the longest autumn ever recorded and just about to switch to spring. I think march will deliver some cold snowy weather which will make a mockery of dec / jan / feb.
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Well we haven't even had a 12 hour Northerly toppler during the last 4 months, I would like to think we have a chance of an Arctic blast during march, at least the sst's will be at their lowest and the arctic will still be bitterly cold, so any northerly should pack a punch if we have a change in fortune from mud and floods to snow showers and sharp frosts. that would be one giant leap considering the total dross we have had for the last 16 weeks...yes i'm including movember whiskers month tooPosted Image .

 

I think there was a northerly toppler around the 20/21st of November:

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But, yes, other than that and a strong and cold northwesterly on 5/6th Dec - which brought the tidal surge, arctic outbreaks have been rather non-existent!

 

Back to this evening's models, bit worried about the potential deep lows and more significant rain appearing next week, as a strong and zonal jet cranks up a few notches. The more convoluted flow shown in FI on recent runs seems to have been toned down too, though there does still appear to be a signal for cut-off low over Sern Europe by early March, but it may turn out to be not much use for us anyway.

Edited by Nick F
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Yes, me bad, I missed that toppler..looking forward to snow during march now.

There's nothing in the reliable timeframe to suggest that is there, unless you cherry pick model runs?  In fact consensus between models and runs seems very low to me right now at that timeframe.

 

Still, as said, the westerly atlantic pattern will stop at some point.  Just that we've all been looking for that since December!

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There's nothing in the reliable timeframe to suggest that is there, unless you cherry pick model runs?  In fact consensus between models and runs seems very low to me right now at that timeframe.

 

Still, as said, the westerly atlantic pattern will stop at some point.  Just that we've all been looking for that since December!

 

Of course there's nothing in the reliable time frame to suggest that it will snow in March...largely because March isn't in the reliable time frame! 

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There's nothing in the reliable timeframe to suggest that is there, unless you cherry pick model runs?  In fact consensus between models and runs seems very low to me right now at that timeframe. Still, as said, the westerly atlantic pattern will stop at some point.  Just that we've all been looking for that since December!

My mention of snow in march was in response to the better news from the anomaly charts mentioned by JH earlier, apparently they show positives for coldies in the not too distant future. So, in answer to your question, it was not a cherry pick, please read the post by john holmes earlier and you will then see why I responded in such a way. :-)
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ECM is still showing a colder end to the run.. And GFS at the same time frame are not a million miles apart showing a much colder pattern towards the end of the Month.

 

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Edited by Polar Maritime
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I think there was a northerly toppler around the 20/21st of November:

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But, yes, other than that and a strong and cold northwesterly on 5/6th Dec - which brought the tidal surge, arctic outbreaks have been rather non-existent!

 

Back to this evening's models, bit worried about the potential deep lows and more significant rain appearing next week, as a strong and zonal jet cranks up a few notches. The more convoluted flow shown in FI on recent runs seems to have been toned down too, though there does still appear to be a signal for cut-off low over Sern Europe by early March, but it may turn out to be not much use for us anyway.

The ECM in particular continues this theme today, several more unsettled days next week in a heavily Atlantic driven regime and the change to a cut-off low over Europe is pushed back to T240 again. Between 50mm and 60mm of rain needed by next Friday to break the February rainfall record, couldn't write it off just yet.
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The set up going into week 2 is not good news for the south with quite a deep low slowly moving east across the southern half of the UK. High rainfall amounts are of greater concern here. None of the charts this morning even late out are particularly cold for the UK as there isn't any decent cold air anywhere near us.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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 Between 50mm and 60mm of rain needed by next Friday to break the February rainfall record, couldn't write it off just yet.

 

Regarding rainfall, a quote from WeatherHistory regarding rainfall this winter.

 

 "Looks like we broke the record in the last few hours and recorded the wettest winter for England and Wales since at least 1766" 

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I'm losing hope now....i'm just astonished at the longevity of this pattern. No end in sight this morning - any changes to anything significantly drier are being pushed back. 

 

If the CFS over recent days is to be believed then no real end either for March:

 

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tell me it's not going to be close? Surely as we progress through March the tendency would be for the Atlantic to wind down a bit? isn't February to May supposed to be our "dry season"?  

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