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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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The main weather headline this morning is a weak occlusion pushing eastwards across england with some outbreaks of mainly light sporadic rain along it and rather murky conditions but once the front has cleared east, today looks mild and fine with sunny intervals and feeling pleasant with max temps of 12 celsius for southern uk, rather cooler further north. Tonight, more persistent rain and stronger winds encroaching from the west but this time, it will be the northwest corner of the uk which has the heaviest rain, up to an inch but it will be steadily pushing east and followed by sunny spells and scattered sharp showers, mild again in the south tomorrow, 12...possibly 13 celsius for the southeast corner. Looking further ahead, friday and the weekend look unsettled with a slightly cooler, bright and breezy mixture of sunshine and showers with a risk of hail & thunder. perhaps merging into longer spells of rain across the northwest of the uk, closest to the low centre. into next week, high pressure builds for a time across europe and the jet buckles with depressions swinging northeastwards towards the uk with mild and unsettled weather..I saved the best until last, the Gfs 00z op run shows high pressure building in from the south west later in FI....finally, as carol kirkwood just said, it's going to be feeling pleasant billy and susanna...big cheesy smile, meanwhile, teits and many others await their first snow flake of the winter.Posted Image Posted Image

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I disagree, it interests me whether we will get decent ridging behind a diving low and a European trough. So long as the models are right about the trough dropping into Europe then there will always be a chance of height rises to the West of it. Any ridge may get toppled by the Atlantic as previously but it may not. Granted the former is the form horse and I'm I'm not that expectant but the pattern has to change some time so it is worth keeping an eye on as a window of opportunity though nothing more at this stage.

Tending to agree with you somewhat mucka following the ECM London graph and 00z runs. The mid Atlantic ridge looks like it has a fair chance of cutting off the low heights over Europe. Early to make a call given the propensity of upstream to flatten things but the mean jet on ECM is looking less strong this side of the Atlantic in week 2 than previous runs and the chances of a general drying out are growing. Edited by bluearmy
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Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight reports from the NWP for today Wednesday February 19th 2014 and featured morning and evening's on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
 
All models show a Westerly flow backing SW through the day and strengthening with a Low pressure system crossing the Atlantic towards the NW of Scotland and pushing troughs East across the UK with a spell of rain and drizzle for many by tonight and the start of tomorrow. Quite quickly bright and windy weather is shown to follow with showers, heavy and wintry over the North and West but with some drier spells across the East at times, this pattern then sustained until later on Saturday when showers die out and the weather becomes fine for a time Saturday night and Sunday. Through Sunday winds back SW and strengthen with gales in the NW and rain too later while Southern and eastern parts though windy and mild will stay largely dry.
 
GFS then shows next week as windy and changeable with spells of rain and showers at times with the trend towards more settled weather by the end of next week and the end of the period as High pressure finally settles things down over the UK with sunny and bright days with fog and frost issues at night.
 
UKMO shows a deep Low off Western Scotland with a strong Westerly flow over the UK carrying rain and showers across the UK, heaviest in the West.
 
GEM also shows a strong Westerly flow towards the early and middle part of next week gradually transferring into a colder spell as winds swing NW and perhaps North by the end of next week with the prospect of further outbreaks of rain and perhaps wintry showers in places due to Low pressure over Denmark.
 
NAVGEM closes it's run with a complex Low pressure system to the North and West of the UK with a cyclonic SW flow across britain. Troughs swinging NE in the flow will deliver rain, heavy at times in temperatures close to average.
 
ECM shows unsettled weather prevailing overall with Low pressure either to the NW or over the UK later as Low pressure then disrupts over the British Isles with rain at times for all areas in average temperatures but possibly becoming somewhat chillier later.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts still show a bias towards a UK trough in 9 and 10 Days time with a Low centre likely to become somewhere close to the North of the UK. So rain at times is the likely scenario still under a Westerly flow. It should be noted that pressure is higher than has been for a long time to the North of the UK so the operational solution is not without foundation.
 
 
 
The GFS Ensembles shows unsettled weather prevailing throughout the period as Low pressure remains in control. Temperatures remain close to average overall and there are signs of drier weather very late in the run.
 
 
The Jet Stream shows a weaker flow than for some time coming up soon before the flow strengthens again later, never releasing it's grip entirely on spawning Low pressure areas up to the NW with further rain at times. It does show a dip sharply SE to the SW of the UK late in the run indicative perhaps of pressure rising to the North and NE later.
 
 
In Summary today the weather looks like staying unsettled for the reliable future. All areas will see rain at times, heavy in places and accompanied by strong winds too, though a return to the very stormy conditions of recently remains unlikely thankfully. Later in the output there are still signs of a possible pattern change as Low pressure is hinted at disrupting and sliding SE across the UK allowing pressure to build to the North. What this means longer term for the UK and the weather in general remains to see how the output handles this possible pattern shift over the coming days or whether it dissolves it into yet another false dawn and reverts to Atlantic dominated form.
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the anomaly charts do seem to be shifting in their emphasis and this may be towards a pattern change, see output this morning, but a touch early to be sure. Oddly enough my own very basic idea of watching the 30mb temperature did suggest early March for a burst of winter.

Time will tell of course.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

and the NOAA versions from last evening

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

these are much less down the road that the other two suggest may happen, hence my word of caution for now.

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the anomaly charts do seem to be shifting in their emphasis and this may be towards a pattern change, see output this morning, but a touch early to be sure. Oddly enough my own very basic idea of watching the 30mb temperature did suggest early March for a burst of winter.

Time will tell of course.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

and the NOAA versions from last evening

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

these are much less down the road that the other two suggest may happen, hence my word of caution for now.

As the saying goes, seeing is believing, it seems like model and lack of cold fatigue as well as flooding and storm damage has turned many off from bothering to post, and the numbers show it...a full day to fill 1 page, if the weather was looking wintry we would fill a page in 5 minutes, just click F5..for the rolling commentary Posted Image

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Have noticed CFS keeps trying to give us the Coldest Spring on record , Be something to keep an eye on as it keeps coming up with it over and over again , with plenty of -10 850's about even mid April .

indeed could well be i read this post last night and smiled as i been waiting to see the charts that are starting to show in this mornings runs ive been lurking for a few days.

and i held my thoughts until now i still stand by my thoughts that we could well see a cold spring and these are showing now and there is cross model support for this.

 

but as always lets see if the fi charts start to increase into the closer time frames but as the vortex starts to change so will our weather.

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Have noticed CFS keeps trying to give us the Coldest Spring on record , Be something to keep an eye on as it keeps coming up with it over and over again , with plenty of -10 850's about even mid April .

 

This is the same CFS that was saying we were gonna have a amazingly cold FEB.

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Hints of the Russian High backing west, but as winter has shown will it won't it? and won't it won the day every time.  Way back when I was writing winter off I mentioned that I wouldn't be at all surprised if early Spring was ourt coldest period of winter...time will tell. 

The pattern 'has to change' is the call, and yes for sure it must and the 'forecast' for us is to pinpoint when.  I have mused about getting stuck in a 'rut' weather wise if we head into deep solar minima as we appear we may be doing....and one hell of a rut we have been in.  If this is a trait, lets hope for a dry rut next.

 

BFTP

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This is the same CFS that was saying we were gonna have a amazingly cold FEB.

 

Maybe being a long range model it was just a month to early , You got to admit were due a pattern change after 3 Months of Atlantic dominance . Just will depend in what form this takes , although I suspect any Cold spell that does start to show off will start off with High pressure building over the UK , Drying things out .

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6z Continuing with a blocking signal , now in Early Fi , with the NW probably feeling the effects first , be really interesting to see how this plays out .... 

 

Posted Image

Low pressure diving SE into Europe? Where have we heard that before! Really dont fancy chasing those sort of charts from 168 to 0 again. But hey, bring it on! ha

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Looking at this mornings 6Z GFS output and comparing to prior ECM and 0z GFS I do not think anybody can draw any firm conclusions post 3 days time. Looks like a crapshoot to me, so almost any conjecture as to the outcome at the end of the month / early March may turn out to be the case.

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The theme of low pressure dropping into Spain continues. I must admit though my interest remains only as I'm heading to Andora skiing next weekend!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=228&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=276&code=0&mode=2

Edited by Tim Bland
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There seems to be growing support for low pressure to drop into Europe next week, but and a big but is can we get anything cold out of it.

The low dropping into Europe will not be good enough as it would probably bring grey drizzly weather with 4-8C maxima.

You need a proper area of heights to draw cold air in from the Arctic or else it's a drier but very underwhelming pattern.

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There seems to be growing support for low pressure to drop into Europe next week, but and a big but is can we get anything cold out of it.

The low dropping into Europe will not be good enough as it would probably bring grey drizzly weather with 4-8C maxima.

You need a proper area of heights to draw cold air in from the Arctic or else it's a drier but very underwhelming pattern.

Luckily it's in deep FI so it will disappear more likely than not. As in earlier instances any cold air has been mixed out  so it would be wet cloudy and miserable. So hopefully it will disappear in the next few runs.

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mucka's cut off low looking less likely thus far on the basis of todays 00z ens, 06z suite and 12z's. if the ecm op is again throwing heights to our nw then perhaps the op is smelling something but at the moment, i'd remain cautious

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Against that it does manage to get some cooler uppers into the flow as the low sinks in deep  FI. Otherwise a mild breezy look up to T120 before quietening down again.

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I think we are entering a really dull period of weather... That damp drizzly cloudy weather, until we can get a good bit of high pressure ridging in we will continue to see this muck and stuff.. the last time I saw the sun was Sunday! Ironic!

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Maybe just starting to see signs in later GEFf's of pressure rises getting further north from the Azores High.

 

In the earlier time frames last nights ECM op.did prove to be too keen on the ridging over E.Europe and has continued the trend from other outputs to dig a Euro trough in week2 so the unsettled theme still has some time to run yet.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021912/ECM1-168.GIF?19-0

 

a very gradual shrinking of the PV to the north west just starting to show it's hand on the mean as we head into March-something  we can expect with the return of the sun over the Pole.

Edited by phil nw.
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