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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

If you want dry and settled weather I guess it looks good.

 

Agreed. For parts of the South and Southwest I simply wish it were a even drier signal though, so anything which increasingly shows such an evolution even at mid range is most welcome, as there are still flooded roads or roads in general disrepair, fields and properties likewise. Certain areas remain badly effected by the wettest winter since 1766 and it will take many weeks to fully recover even now.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

We haven't even started the first week of April yet !.. theres a long way to go, the models could change and will in some way,

I mean it was only just over a week ago the models were showing an easterly and -4 850hpa for today.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

And if you want cool and wet weather I guess it looks bad.Posted Image

 

Nonetheless, what we want and what we get will always differ, as witnessed in the darn tiring chase for a snowflake throughout the forgetful Winter of 2013/14. Sticking to the models, as others have stated, it is looking like a quite unusual synoptic setup.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Easterly winds leave the UK by Friday which will get rid of the muck of the north sea for those in the east

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.

Why do some here still wand cold Easterly winds and snow, we need to look forward to long Spring days and some warmth in the sunshine, that is why I get excited when I look at what the GFS and the ECM are indicating.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Moving back onto actual Model Output Discussion, it looks like an above average week in terms of Temperature for all parts away from Northern England northwards. Not overly dry however and murky for parts of Eastern England on many a day, which of course will supress temperatures. A chance, according to the UKMO website updates that Thursday could see a hint of Thunderstorm activity slowly progressing Northwards. Some of these synoptics have an early Summer like feel to them, if I'm not slightly overegging things. Next week is up for grabs but it may well become drier for those folk situated away from the West, with continuing hints that this outcome will favour Southern England as per the 15 dayer from the Met office, although far from certain at this range.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

Why do some here still wand cold Easterly winds and snow, we need to look forward to long Spring days and some warmth in the sunshine, that is why I get excited when I look at what the GFS and the ECM are indicating.

It's called 'difference in weather preference' ;) Edited by simshady
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

As I said, moving back onto actual Model Output Discussion. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

As I said, moving back onto actual Model Output Discussion. Posted Image

Sorry. :)
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Plenty of complications for the Professionals in the short-term, take a look at the Fax Charts for 1200hrs Monday and 0000hrs Wednesday.

 

post-7183-0-93871100-1396197423_thumb.gi

 

post-7183-0-08439200-1396197425_thumb.gi

 

The second image shows the 546DAM line moving Northwards, a sign of increasing humidity and warmth which could lead to a fascinating watch (Thunderstorms and very warm Temps) come the second half of the upcoming working week.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

First +10 850's of the season on show this afternoon, short lived but the south could get very warm for the time of year

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Still some uncertainties for the end of the week between GFS and UKMO with UKMO turning things cooler whilst GFS keeps it warm

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

8 day 2m temperature anomaly remains above average

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Plenty of complications for the Professionals in the short-term, take a look at the Fax Charts for 1200hrs Monday and 0000hrs Wednesday.

 

Posted ImageUKMO Fax Chart 300314 at t+36.gif

 

Posted ImageUKMO Fax Chart 300314 at t+72.gif

 

The second image shows the 546DAM line moving Northwards, a sign of increasing humidity and warmth which could lead to a fascinating watch (Thunderstorms and very warm Temps) come the second half of the upcoming working week.

 

Yes GLTW translating those charts on to the 12z GFS we can see the warm uppers just brushing into the south on Wednesday.

 

post-2026-0-77701200-1396198646_thumb.pn

 

An even chance of some convective action being modeled around midweek

 

post-2026-0-36608800-1396198871_thumb.pn

 

 a flavour of a Summer like setup with that brief N.African plume that's for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Not to forget the risk of thunderstorms being modelled tomorrow. NMM in particular going for some rather impressive values. Possibly quite slow moving too. The midlands looking at greatest risk perhaps anywhere from Leicester to West Wales and Bristol to Manchester looking a good shout tomorrow afternoon. Risk for the south coast tomorrow morning too :)

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Plenty of complications for the Professionals in the short-term, take a look at the Fax Charts for 1200hrs Monday and 0000hrs Wednesday.

 

Posted ImageUKMO Fax Chart 300314 at t+36.gif

 

Posted ImageUKMO Fax Chart 300314 at t+72.gif

 

The second image shows the 546DAM line moving Northwards, a sign of increasing humidity and warmth which could lead to a fascinating watch (Thunderstorms and very warm Temps) come the second half of the upcoming working week.

 

Sorry don't really follow why the 546DAM line moving Northwards, is a sign of increasing humidity and warmth nor the last bit. The 12 GFS in fact has quite a cool day on Thursday with a line of precipitation over the UK but not indicative of convection. Friday warmer in the Midlands and east but again nothing to shout about in the west.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Wednesday looks interesting with the 546dam well over us (England & Wales) warm moist air & a Lot of convective unstable air and energy in the atmosphere!!!!

 

Can somebody remind me that it's still Spring not SummerPosted Image

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image This could be a very thundery outlook for some !!!

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Sorry don't really follow why the 546DAM line moving Northwards, is a sign of increasing humidity and warmth nor the last bit. The 12 GFS in fact has quite a cool day on Thursday with a line of precipitation over the UK but not indicative of convection. Friday warmer in the Midlands and east but again nothing to shout about in the west.

 

Phil NW concurs with what I stated but maybe you can enlighten me as to why I might interpreting things wrong, it's quite possible I am as like others I'm still learning. From what I can see, the 546DAM skirted with the SE today and produced Temps of 21c at the surface. For a brief time, midweek the 546DAM line moves Northwards into the Midlands and perhaps further. The timeframe to which you refer is later in the week I believe. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Phil NW concurs with what I stated but maybe you can enlighten me as to why I might interpreting things wrong, it's quite possible I am as like others I'm still learning. From what I can see, the 546DAM skirted with the SE today and produced Temps of 21c at the surface. For a brief time, midweek the 546DAM line moves Northwards into the Midlands and perhaps further. The timeframe to which you refer is later in the week I believe. Posted Image

Agreed, even the GFS does actually

Posted Image

Warm again on Thursday as most days will be this week. There will be quite a lot of high cloud and some rain and showers around as fronts rotate around the low to our south west. Will be very pleasant for many and could produce some fireworks. I do feel bad for the north east as this is a terrible setup for them with low cloud and single figure maxima.

Beyond the working week we do see the Azores high try to build northwards, of course at this point we cannot tell how far north this will get but from the ensembles

Posted Image

That looks quite good

ECM

Posted Image

Again the south looks dry and warm, but some rain for the north.

 

Things will depend on how deep the Atlantic trough is and how much this will force the Azores high northwards.

 

That aside, for a little fun lets see what the GEM could throw up for us

Posted Image

Posted Image

I see the 20C isotherm is trying to reach Gibraltar already and all that warmth would be coming our way.

If only it wasn't an FI chart :p

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Phil NW concurs with what I stated but maybe you can enlighten me as to why I might interpreting things wrong, it's quite possible I am as like others I'm still learning. From what I can see, the 546DAM skirted with the SE today and produced Temps of 21c at the surface. For a brief time, midweek the 546DAM line moves Northwards into the Midlands and perhaps further. The timeframe to which you refer is later in the week I believe. Posted Image

 

Firstly i wasn't saying you were interpreting things incorrectly but merely wondering why the 546DAM moving northwards was sign of increasing humidity. Sign of warmer air I agree as the contour height is a relationship between temperature structure and surface pressure.

 

Yes I was looking at your Weds chart as GFS has a front over the UK on Thursday and quite a cool day.

 

Anyway no big deal

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Firstly i wasn't saying you were interpreting things incorrectly but merely wondering why the 546DAM moving northwards was sign of increasing humidity. Sign of warmer air I agree as the contour height is a relationship between temperature structure and surface pressure.

 

Yes I was looking at your Weds chart as GFS has a front over the UK on Thursday and quite a cool day.

 

Anyway no big deal

 

Fair enough but you did have me questioning my own interpretation. Probably should have said increasing warmth to a wider range of regions aside from simply the SE as was the case today.  Anyway enough of that, and back to the analyses we go.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

All change from ECM this evening at day 9 from high pressure this morning to low pressure tonight

 

A decent spell at day 8 look west to see whats coming at day 9

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Day 10 has high pressure back away from northern Scotland though the 850's a much lower than of late

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

A quick one from me as Ive had a very busy day, but just a traditional fest of "April showers" coming up this coming week for many unless your exposed to the north sea coasts. Thunderstorms are likely, but it will feel very pleasant in the Spring sunshine....Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Posted
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.

All change from ECM this evening at day 9 from high pressure this morning to low pressure tonight

 

A decent spell at day 8 look west to see whats coming at day 9

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Day 10 has high pressure back away from northern Scotland though the 850's a much lower than of late

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

HP is still knocking on our door, it is still a good sign.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

HP is still knocking on our door, it is still a good sign.

 

Yep early days still but GFS, ECM and GEM all show high pressure over or close by to the UK at day 10

 

GFS

 

Posted Image

 

ECM

 

Posted Image

 

GEM

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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