Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[Frosty.]

Temperatures will drop like a stone when the wintry showers blow through but then recover when the sunshine returns...I love spring..

[knocker]

Some 06 temp forecast

 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

Temperatures will drop like a stone when the wintry showers blow through but then recover when the sunshine returns...I love spring..

indeed frosty and the outlooks somewhat settled but chilly with night frost is the back end of march likely to bring a true spring weather type very possible all models want to raise heights to our east maybe northeast in time,so northwest north flows could well be the theme heading into the last week of march into april.

 

now with deep cold embedded to our north and northwest the possibility of a april 2008 meaning that snow showers for the north bringing them a somewhat colder than they been used to this winter.

08 april brought a strong northerly from the arctic with snow settling here on the southcoast if only for a few hours but all in all interesting end to march and april,

perhaps may until the vortex retreats for its summer holiday.

 

like many on here im hoping for high pressure dominated summer and a better setup for the start of next winter.

 

but this said theres also a chance that spring could well get high pressure situated in the right place for a mild settled spring but my thoughts and where the models are heading would suggest the former to be most likely.

and at last model consistency right out into fi.

Edited March 20, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows pressure slowly rising by mid week

 

 

ECM isn't so keen

 

 

GFS try's to follow UKMO

 

 

Beyond t144 ECM does build pressure

 

[Barry12]

After the bitter cold snap this weekend causes temperatures to plummet to 9C, it looks likely that high pressure will build in again during next week. I predict this will be hard to shift and will last into April.

Edited March 20, 2014 by Barry95

[Purga]

After the bitter cold snap this weekend causes temperatures to plummet to 9C

Bitter cold >>>>

[Summer Sun]

Bitter cold >>>>

 

I think Barry's post contained a fair amount of Sarcasm

 

After the bitter cold snap this weekend causes temperatures to plummet to 9C

[mike Meehan]

I've noticed that quite often when we put our clocks forward to British 'Summer' time the weather invariably gets colder

[gottolovethisweather]

After the bitter cold snap this weekend causes temperatures to plummet to 9C, it looks likely that high pressure will build in again during next week. I predict this will be hard to shift and will last into April.

 

Kind of like my sentiments expressed fairly frequently in recent days.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79434-model-output-discussion-13th-feb-onwards/?p=2946614

 

To be fair, we are both clutching at straws and as ever, time will tell.

 

The next five days look far from warm and pretty much come in at below average by day for the most part of the British Isles. Hopefully, aside from today's rainfall in Southern England, it will be a largely dry period with only brief but fleeting showers. It could get a fair bit warmer down in my neck of the woods as the week progresses but at the moment, the focus has to be on what the "cool snap" will deliver.

Edited March 20, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Polar Maritime]

A shock to the system from tomorrow morning as the cold air pushes S/E this evening bringing much colder temps for all. There are still the continued chances of snow/sleet/hail especially for the North, but even parts of Wales could see wintry weather including the spine of the UK over the weekend. 

 

 

The GFS continues to paint an unsettled and cool period of weather for all of Britain into April,  With only the very far South sometimes becoming a little warmer due to High Pressure trying to push in, but the colder air seems to win out as in recent runs. FI looks very unsettled indeed and has done for a good few days now.

 

 

Edited March 20, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[gottolovethisweather]

This little feature needs watching for parts of England and Wales into the early hours period of Saturday, the 528DAM line is shown in amongst a band of squally wintriness heading ever Eastwards during the aforementioned timeframe. The Beeb mentioned this in passing and it could be that it surprises a few by providing a brief covering of wet snow by morning, should the timing of its passing occur as shown.

 

 

It will be down to viewing of the NAE, NMM etc. for closer inspection nearer the time.

Edited March 20, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Summer Sun]

UKMO continues to show pressure building by mid next week though with we won't see the sort of temperatures we had last week as cooler air will be over the UK

 

 

A similar picture from GFS

 

Edited March 20, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Cloud 10]

The beast from the east cometh. 

 

 

 

Not a patch on last year's though...

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-3-26-12-1.png

Edited March 20, 2014 by Cloud 10

[Milhouse]

Looks like a weak easterly flow will develop throughout next week. Initially it could be cold midweek as a relatively cold pool of air moves over the UK. But behind that the air looks warmer so temperatures would recover away from eastern coasts. Its just a question of whether or not the Atlantic would be encroaching by then.

[Cloud 10]

Yes,quite a few weak easterlies showing up on the model output towards the middle

of next week and beyond,and certainly doesn't tie in very well with the latest 6-15 day

forecast from the met-office with its driest in the SE and wettest in the NW theme.

[Captain Shortwave]

Very robust Scandi high forming on the ECM. Very common to happen during Spring and the surface conditions really depend on the flow around the high. Winds south of east generally bring sunny conditions whilst north of east can bring a lot of cloud with the time of year deciding how far inland the cloud gets.

Also there might be rain in the south east quarter which might take some time to clear away which also adds some issues for some.

If the ECM is right, then that high could stick around for a long time.

The later frames do show an improvement with drier and warmer air moving up from southern europe so the low cloud would break up for most to allow warm sunny spells.

Edited March 20, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Milhouse]

ECM finishes on a pleasant note with warm air wafting northwards off the continent.

 

[Stuie]

Interesting Tuesday/Wednesday next week. The cold air remains and uppers cold enough to maybe change water into wine.

 

Yes 2 different models but Tuesday/Wednesday will not take a great deal of modification to get a flicker in the costa del Anglia.

[stodge]

Evening all

 

Some very interesting output this evening and plenty to consider going forward.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014032012/gfs-0-132.png?12

 

GFS 12Z operational offers an unpleasant-looking scenario for the south and east with rain and cold winds but it doesn't last as HP forces its way in from the east:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014032012/gfs-0-174.png?12

 

Moving into FI, pressure remains high to the north and east suggesting no Atlantic break-through for a while.

 

ECM is quite different sending HP from the Azores up and over the British Isles to the north and thence to Scandinavia:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014032012/ECM1-144.GIF?20-0

 

GEM keeps a more mobile and Atlantic-driven scenario with the Scandinavian HP offering only a brief interlude.

 

I'd also caution against getting excited over 850 values in these set ups. I suspect that we will either see a cloudy and cool HP or, if we can get some drier air, some quite cold nights.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Evening people  

Ive been noticing how much calmer the atlantic looks to get at long last! 

Now for the spring and into summer, it is an early punt, but I've been looking at the sea temperatures around the world, and there seems to be much warmer than usual oceans at the moment. I think that this could lead to some weird synoptics and affect steering winds and trade winds greatly, that could produce some unthinkable weather for parts of Europe and even the UK, + other parts of the world too in different ways. 

I know I may have egg on my face at the end of summer! But I think that we could see some scorching weather and an unusual summer as opposed to typical ones. Perhaps a 1975 style summer is what I'm going to go for. A lot of high pressure, with low pressure over Greenland and to our North, with a Northerly jetstream. More to the fact that in recent history, decent summers have had the tendency to come in pairs, so if that is anything to go by, with 2013 being quite a scorcher, this one may well shock us all ! 

[Thundery wintry showers]

The 8-14 day outlook from NOAA is inconsistent with the majority of tonight's model outputs, as it has low heights (suggesting lower-than-average pressure) to the north and north-west of the British Isles.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

Another good source for guidance when the operational outputs over-react to a signal is the ECMWF ensemble mean, but that, too, is now suggesting a build of high pressure to the north-east and a generally easterly or south-easterly flow, so the NOAA outlook currently looks out on its own.  I won't be surprised if NOIAA's update tomorrow moves in the direction of tonight's operational outputs and has anomalous heights over Scandinavia.

 

The ECMWF only drags up warmth from the SE at the very end of its operational run- an easterly with 850hPa temperatures just below 0C tends to translate to cool dry cloudy weather near North Sea coasts at this time of year but if we get a sufficiently slack easterly flow then central and western areas may end up sunny with warm days and chilly nights and the same can also be true in East Anglia and the south-east if we get a south-easterly thanks to the short track over the North Sea.

[johnholmes]

I would almost always believe the 500mb anomaly charts over the synoptic

[damianslaw]

Quite surprised to see the models suggesting an easterly or sorts by mid next week, quite a change from what the ensembles and ops were showing just 36 hours ago.. so I urge caution. Many may revert back to a more westerly airflow tomorrow, however, it is notable how both ECM and GFS are in agreement of heights ridging from the SW and quickly building northeast into Scandinavia to produce the easterly with the longwave trough elongated N-S axis to our west becoming unstuck and eventually squeezed out. These are the kind of synoptics we saw during last winter and also resemble events of Dec 2009 when we saw a change to a cold continental outlook (conditions at the surface on this occasion will be far different to those periods).

 

Its a refreshing change to the endless stream of low pressure after low pressure we have endured since December, indeed we are seeing for the first time since I don't how long northerlies and easterlies beating the atlantic aside - all quite normal for late March, this often happens, but as a cold snow lover how I would have longed for tonight's charts even just a month ago.. too late for anything notably cold or snowy now,  but pleasing to see.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The NOAA 500hPa anomaly charts cover the period 28 March to 3 April while the models are projecting easterly winds for around 26-29 March, so perhaps there isn't as strong a disagreement as it first appeared to me- perhaps we're looking at a brief easterly spell followed by a strengthening Icelandic low pushing the Scandinavian block away eastwards as we head into the beginning of April.

[Iceni]

Evening people

Ive been noticing how much calmer the atlantic looks to get at long last! 

Now for the spring and into summer, it is an early punt, but I've been looking at the sea temperatures around the world, and there seems to be much warmer than usual oceans at the moment. I think that this could lead to some weird synoptics and affect steering winds and trade winds greatly, that could produce some unthinkable weather for parts of Europe and even the UK, + other parts of the world too in different ways. 

I know I may have egg on my face at the end of summer! But I think that we could see some scorching weather and an unusual summer as opposed to typical ones. Perhaps a 1975 style summer is what I'm going to go for. A lot of high pressure, with low pressure over Greenland and to our North, with a Northerly jetstream. More to the fact that in recent history, decent summers have had the tendency to come in pairs, so if that is anything to go by, with 2013 being quite a scorcher, this one may well shock us all ! 

 

 

That really hot summer was 1976. We BBQ'd our evening meal after work every night for months.