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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

After this upcoming unsettled period, the models diverge into days 6-10, with the Canadian and to a lesser extent ECM ops less keen to build pressure across the UK. The south, however, would see the best of conditions, as pressure would remain highest here.

The GFS, and its ensemble suite, far more bullish re pressure rises across the whole of the UK.

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GEFS

the 6-10 day height anomalies show the ridge ext thru the UK, with temperatures responding. Weak positive anomaly into this period, in contrast with yesterdays output.

the ecm and Canadian ens less keen on ext the ridge thru the uk as shown by gfs/gefs. Best of conditions in the South. Temp anomaly shows most of uk below average thru this period, with a weak negative anomaly. Height anomalies from ecm & gem ens below (days 6-10)

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Edited by draztik
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Quick look at the temperatures for the weekend and away from Scotland day time highs should get to the high end of single figures for the north and the low end of double figures for the south the nights will be cold and frosty but temperatures will recover during the day

 

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After Monday temperatures will start and rise for all with a peak most likely on Wednesday

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Continued signals for a pressure rise next week starting around the 24th and lasting until around the 29th on the London and Dublin ensembles

 

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Lasts till around the 29th on the Manchester and Aberdeen ensembles also

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

A quick look at the early GFS 12Z Operational and a fly in the ointment midweek for southern parts:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014031912/gfs-0-156.png?12

 

The HP build doesn't quite work and the two HP cells are split apart with pressure falling across southern Britain and the southern North Sea.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-141-3h.png?12

 

The LP over the Alps deepens and shifts back north so it could be a wet and unpleasant midweek for the south-east in particular.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO continuing to show high pressure slowly building next week

 

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GFS is less keen on a pressure rise this afternoon though we need to see what the pressure ensembles show later on as they have been showing a rise in pressure for a number of runs now as my previous post (1361) shows the 12z may just be a wobble or it could be onto something new all will become clearer at around 18:00

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM showing pressure rising slowly during next week, though cooler air is likely to be over the UK so temperatures wouldn't be as high as last week

 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

It looks like a traditional Marchfest  with colder wintry weather giving way to quieter conditions at times, Changeable to Unsettled looks like the formhorse with some settled interludes in between! And as well as that, it looks like the second half of March will be colder than the first half. Frosty conditions more likely in the coming week , than most folk have seen all Winter.Posted Image  It can only happen herePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes Anyweather, also parts across the spine of the UK could see more Snow than they have had all winter.. With even a pinch from the East on the 24th Posted Image​

 

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Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge

talking to yourself is the first sign of madness gavin

Heh, I always enjoy ut when people chuck up a post, forget about it and come in from the pub and repky to their own post taking issue with it.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The most wintry spell since last spring is on the way, the weekend in particular looks chilly with wintry showers and frosty nights.. We were not able to achieve a wintry summary like that for the entire winter apart from a few exceptions, and more specifically at munro level in the scottish mountains at 2000 feet asl and higher.. Enjoy it fellow long suffering coldies :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

The most wintry spell since last spring is on the way, the weekend in particular looks chilly with wintry showers and frosty nights.. We were not able to achieve a wintry summary like that for the entire winter apart from a few exceptions, and more specifically at munro level in the scottish mountains at 2000 feet asl and higher.. Enjoy it fellow long suffering coldies :-)

 

Most wintry spell since last spring?? I'm sure we had a sharp Northerly/NNW'ly in November or December which bought snow showers to Scotland, even had a little snow shower here but nothing settled and apart from a brief PM westerly which actually give us our one and only lying snow from one 5 min snow shower then I think its untrue that this is our first wintry spell since last spring. 

 

It does look quite a half hearted affair really and I don't see much potential for snowfall in all honesty but Sunday night into Monday could potentially be a cold and frosty one if the timings are perfect, one too keep an eye on. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London

The most wintry spell since last spring is on the way, the weekend in particular looks chilly with wintry showers and frosty nights.. We were not able to achieve a wintry summary like that for the entire winter apart from a few exceptions, and more specifically at munro level in the scottish mountains at 2000 feet asl and higher.. Enjoy it fellow long suffering coldies :-)

How can we enjoy a wintry spell in late March, especially after a winterless winter!! 

 

All we want now is a nice spring, a summerey summer (heat, fine barbie days and storms) and a winterey winter 2014-15!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I don't remember any cold snaps during the last 4 months, indeed, some parts of the uk haven't had a single snow flake and barely a frost either..that is why I think it's noteworthy that the BBC weather summary for the weekend is :-

Chilly

Wintry Showers

Frosty nights

Sounds wintry to me...

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes Frosty, even the experts are calling it a wintry spell, why folk have to keep playing it down is beyond me... it is what it is a short Wintry spell. And the charts also paint a period of cool and unsettled weather well into the start of April.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Cheers pm..I'm glad you agree. Its all relative of course as we are heading towards april but wintry showers and frosty nights is good enough for me..with the increasing convection we should see some beefy wintry showers with thunder developing well inland.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Well a week's a long time in forecasting. The dominating AZ high has now disappeared next week. After a brief look the weather over the weekend which is under the influence of the low to the north of the UK, after the cold front moves through today, lying Stornoway to western Ireland at oo, quite convective with frequent wintry showers with snow further north and on the hills in the strong W-NW winds.

 

A weak transient ridge on Monday before a slack period midweek, with the ridge to the west of the UK, but the GDPS and GFS diverge here so best left but just to say quite cool.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: brynmawr gwent
  • Weather Preferences: extreme snow rain wind
  • Location: brynmawr gwent

I don't remember any cold snaps during the last 4 months, indeed, some parts of the uk haven't had a single snow flake and barely a frost either..that is why I think it's noteworthy that the BBC weather summary for the weekend is :-ChillyWintry ShowersFrosty nightsSounds wintry to me...

Weve had cold snaps and snow days didnt last long though....

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Weve had cold snaps and snow days didnt last long though....

My memory of the last 4 months is biblical amounts of rain, severe gale / storm force / hurricane force winds..... hardly any frost and no snow worthy of mention apart from the scottish mountains. The next 7-10 days..perhaps longer indicate a higher chance of a snow flake and frost than we have had for the last 16 weeks...weather forecast just said turning much colder during the next few days. :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

My memory of the last 4 months is biblical amounts of rain, severe gale / storm force / hurricane force winds..... hardly any frost and no snow worthy of mention apart from the scottish mountains. The next 7-10 days..perhaps longer indicate a higher chance of a snow flake and frost than we have had for the last 16 weeks...weather forecast just said turning much colder during the next few days. :-)

looks like 6-9C in the north with the south remaining in double figures. Yes frosts by night but nothing special for March and still for most at low levels there will still not be any snow. Higher levels again could get some but again they got loads during the winter as they were high enough for the copious amounts of rain to turn to snow.

The biggest middle finger from the models this morning is the cross model support for some kind of high to form to our north east with low pressure disrupting and heading south east through the UK. Would be typical to pick up an easterly now as it do nothing but bring in lots of low cloud.

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