Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[Summer Sun]

High pressure starting to show on the ECM ensemble at day 9 and 10 now

 

 

[damianslaw]

A cloudy week ahead in the main, very different to the week just gone which for southern parts in particular ended up a very sunny one (the NW however, has been locked under cloud since Thursday..).

 

Gradually becoming unsettled for all, with the windiest, coolest and wettest conditions reserved for the NW. By Thursday, SE parts may see there first significant rain for 2 weeks as an active cold front moves down from the NW introducing a much fresher feel in time for the weekend, with temps by then struggling to get into double figures even in the SE.

 

Next weekend looks chilly in the north with wintry showers to places with modest height and also a return of air frost.

 

Into the following week, both ECM and GFS are keen to build azores heights NE again, but we also have a lot of energy projected to steam out of E Canadian and NE USA seaboard which will place significant forcing on any renewed attempts of azores high ridging NE. I suspect the south will see a settled interlude following next weeks more cooler wetter phase, before we see a return to westerlies and possibly another renewed northwesterly blast before the month is out.

 

In overview a very average spell of weather for the time of year, and a much more normal atlantic pattern compared to the Dec-Feb period, thanks to a more pronounced ridge/trough pattern.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Friday, Saturday and Sunday are suggesting "convective potential" to me, with a cyclonic westerly type and polar maritime air firmly in occupation, although note that frontal disturbances can turn up at short notice in that sort of setup and turn a bright showery day into a cloudy damp one.

 

I don't expect widespread thunder from that synoptic situation but hail showers could occur widely, providing short-lived coverings in some places, and maybe some sleet/snow in the heavier showers in western and northern parts of Britain.  As others have noted, the general trend after the weekend is for the Azores High to make a return and bring dry, warm and sunny conditions to the south of Britain although it will probably be cooler and cloudier at times further north, a bit like the pattern that we've seen during this weekend.

[Summer Sun]

For those in the south temperatures later this week and into next are likely to go below normal which will be a shock to the system after some parts were basking in temps as high as 20c yesterday

 

850's heading below normal from the 21st to the 25th / 26th

 

 

The bulk of any rain looks likely late Thursday and into Friday for the south

[Frosty.]

At last, after 4 months of waiting..there is wintry weather on the way. :-)

[Summer Sun]

At last, after 4 months of waiting..there is wintry weather on the way. :-)

 

06z is still updating this is the most widespread so far

 

 

Its a case of can it get from this morning to reality on Saturday morning

 

This is what the 00z run had for the same time

 

 

If we are to see the first fall of snow for many since March 2013 this coming weekend looks the best bet at the moment

Edited March 17, 2014 by Summer Sun

[m1chaels]

We have had ensemble mean agreement of a 'cold plunge' a couple of times already in March only to see it downgraded to the point of disappearing, does anyone really think this time will be different?

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Frosty, as I and others have been saying, by weeks end there is still good potential for some Wintry weather especially from the Midlands North over high ground, with even short lived low level coverings possible in any heavy bursts giving evaporative cooling with hail/sleet.

And with the crap Winter we have all had it would be nice to see some white stuff before Spring proper arrives, time will tell..

Edited March 17, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[draztik]

We have had ensemble mean agreement of a 'cold plunge' a couple of times already in March only to see it downgraded to the point of disappearing, does anyone really think this time will be different?

 

valid point! I think a change from the mild conditions of late is almost certain. How cool it gets, well at this stage it looks moderate... the ext ecm keeps things on the cool side right into April now, with temps at the 5K ft level trending below average.

 

days 4-9 & 10-15

 

CFS & GFS ensembles in agreement, with surface temps below average.

 

CFS/GFS temp anomaly - time frames shown within charts.

Edited March 17, 2014 by draztik

[knocker]

Yes Frosty, as I and others have been saying, by weeks end there is still good potential for some Wintry weather especially from the Midlands North over high ground, with even short lived low level coverings possible in any heavy bursts giving evaporative cooling with hail/sleet.And with the crap Winter we have all had it would be nice to see some white stuff before Spring proper arrives, time will tell..

 

You speak for yourself PM. Anyway no chance of the white stuff in God's country as there would appear to be little diurnal variation until the end of the month with the min not dropping below 4C and the max between 8-10C. Although after the showery period with the rPM and cold front I'm hoping the Azores high will encroach next week so those max temps are probably  on the low side. You may well be right further north of course.

[Frosty.]

A pleasant optimistic end to the Ecm 00z op run with high pressure building in strongly. It does look like a relatively colder & unsettled spell is on the way to all areas by the weekend and early next week but then the pattern should flatten out for a time with the north / south split returning.

Edited March 17, 2014 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

GFS shows the high pressure starting to move back in early next week, though low pressure systems are likely to affect Scotland, northern Ireland and the far north of England at times especially earlier in the week as ever the warmest conditions will be in the south but even the north would see some decent temps for the time of year

 

 

ECM also shows high pressure moving back in during next week

 

Edited March 17, 2014 by Summer Sun

[BlueHedgehog074]

At last, after 4 months of waiting..there is wintry weather on the way. :-)

Here, you might need this axe in case if the weekend Polar Maritime-like incursion shown on the GFS, UKMO and ECMWF is not powerful enough to crush the Wakefield Snow Shield! ;-)If you do end up using it, then please ensure you return it afterwards, as I may need it to take out the Midlands Snow Shield too...I imagine it could be a bit of a teeth-chattering moment for the cold and snow fans (admittedly including me despite enjoying the warm, dry, spells too) for the next few days wondering whether the models will deliver a wintry surprise for them this weekend (even though it does kinda look like for the moment that the snow may just fall on top of the hills and mountains only, but you never know). Edited March 17, 2014 by DiagonalRedLine

[Barry12]

Not to be a negative nelly, but the projected cold weather is 6 days away, how many times over the Winter have we seen the cold downgraded? People are acting like the cold weather is confirmed.

Edited March 17, 2014 by Barry95

[draztik]

Not to be a negative nelly, but the projected cold weather is 6 days away, how many times over the Winter have we seen the cold downgraded? People are acting like the cold weather is confirmed.

6 days?

the cooler trend takes hold from around t90, looking at the latest gfs op temp anomaly;

t96

Edited March 17, 2014 by draztik

[Polar Maritime]

People are acting like the cold weather is confirmed.

There are always the same precorsions whether cold or hot, for which are naturally taken into consideration at 6 days out, but the models and MET have continually shown a PM flow bringing with it an unsettled cool down by the weekend for a good while now, how cold/cool is the question, there will be some big temperature differences with the far South holding on to average temps, while the North could well see below average. As I said a few posts back "time will tell" but I dont expect anything out the ordinary for the time of year. Edited March 17, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

Latest run from NCEP-GFS. I have to say it differs somewhat from the ECWMF

Edited March 17, 2014 by knocker

[syed2878]

At last, after 4 months of waiting..there is wintry weather on the way. :-)

 

 

hi frosty. As much as i would like to see wintery weather i can't c any snow away from higher ground up north. Even the met's 6-15day they only mension snow for the hills. However models do show temps taking a dip at the end of this week. Anyway lets hope we may get to c something wintry in lower levels too stil i think i will hold on to my excitement for now we had our finggers burned 1times too many this winter. Lets for now enjoy the spring warmth and c what the weather throws at us at the end oe this week shall we?

[Summer Sun]

hi frosty. As much as i would like to see wintery weather i can't c any snow away from higher ground up north. Even the met's 6-15day they only mension snow for the hills. However models do show temps taking a dip at the end of this week. Anyway lets hope we may get to c something wintry in lower levels too stil i think i will hold on to my excitement for now we had our fingers burned 1times too many this winter. Lets for now enjoy the spring warmth and c what the weather throws at us at the end oe this week shall we?

 

The update today does hint at some temporary overnight snow at low levels in the north but mostly overnight

 

Considerably colder than of late this weekend with sunshine and blustery showers; most frequent in the west and north and merging into more prolonged bands at times. They will also fall as snow over higher ground in the north, and perhaps to low levels here at times; though low level accumulations should be temporary and mostly overnight. Frost and some icy patches are likely overnight. Into next week, it should become less windy and more settled for a time with rainfall becoming mainly restricted to the northwest

[Paul]

Latest from Jo Farrow - turning windier, wetter and colder..

 

 

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[knocker]

The latest NCEP-GFS certainly has the low to north dominating at the end of the week and certainly quite wintry. Not pushing the Azores high quite as much as the ECMWF either

Edited March 17, 2014 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Sunday looks nippy..

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM continuing to show a pretty chilly day on Sunday

 

 

-9 850s pushing into Scotland at t168

 

Edited March 17, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

ECM still showing a rise in pressure early next week especially for the south

 

 

More unsettled to end ECM's run with a deep low crossing north of Scotland

 

Edited March 17, 2014 by Summer Sun

[ANYWEATHER]

It does look like the second half of this month will see much more unsettled conditions than the first half of this month! Both Ecm and Gfs show low pressure in control, but with fleeting pressure rises for the south in picticular, then followed by some cold rPM air across the Uk