Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[draztik]

Ext ecm, shows a period of unsettled conditions from around 18-24th March, more prevalent in the North of the country. Thereafter pressure is forecast to rise from the SW, with the Azores wanting to relocate to our shores again, with the jet being pushed further North at this stage. The positive temp anomaly I talked about last night, into days 13-15 is shown to be stronger - so a signal of weather settling down and 'warming' up as we approach April.

 

The GFS ens indicating the 'cool' spell, has all but evaporated.

 

The 0z ens from the 10th, and the 0z ens from today - both covering the same time period 18th - 23rd! Yep.

Edited March 12, 2014 by draztik

[Summer Sun]

GFS rainfall chart has extended the very dry theme to the 20th now for the vast majority if England and Wales with just a few mm of rain at worst

 

 

As each day passes currently the dry theme keeps getting extended by a day

Above normal temps to at least the 20th as well

 

[Paul]

And anyway, can we keep this to the model output please..

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z op run is changeable with a mixture of settled & unsettled weather, the most unsettled and breeziest / windiest conditions for north west uk and the best of the dry and sunny weather for the south east, temperatures varying between rather cold, average and mild and cold enough for occasional frosts and wintry ppn, especially for northern hills.

[Summer Sun]

Ext ecm, shows a period of unsettled conditions from around 18-24th March, more prevalent in the North of the country. Thereafter pressure is forecast to rise from the SW, with the Azores wanting to relocate to our shores again, with the jet being pushed further North at this stage. The positive temp anomaly I talked about last night, into days 13-15 is shown to be stronger - so a signal of weather settling down and 'warming' up as we approach April.

 

The GFS ens indicating the 'cool' spell, has all but evaporated.

 

The 0z ens from the 10th, and the 0z ens from today - both covering the same time period 18th - 23rd! Yep.

 

Interestingly the met office are also talking about settled conditions returning towards the end of the month

 

up-to the 26th

 

During the middle of next week conditions are expected to turn more generally unsettled, though rainfall totals in the south should be relatively low, before colder conditions briefly follow, perhaps bringing some wintry showers to the north and northeast and some colder nights. For the last part of this forecast period, the most likely scenario is for gradually more settled conditions to return.

[Summer Sun]

The cold snap around mid next week has completely vanished from GFS now instead it brings high pressure back in as early as t168 this afternoon

 

Stays relatively settled on Monday

 

 

The high backs away Tuesday

 

 

Before returning for a few days

 

 

It then starts to slip away once more

 

Edited March 12, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z keeping 2m temperatures above normal to at least the 20th again this afternoon

 

 

Normal 2m temps left expected right

 

[Cloud 10]

Today's 12z  GEM is very different from the GFS and throws in a decent Northerly

later in its run.

 

[draztik]

Safe to say GEM not in agreement with GFS, with the Canadian not keen on the idea of high pressure extending itself into nxt wk. Also, the 850s show a big contrast,with gem much cooler than gfs this afternoon.

gem & gfs at t168

[Summer Sun]

NAVGEM going a similar route to GFS at t180 by building pressure, though GFS has the high at 1030mb whereas NAVGEM is 1025mb

 

 

Slightly earlier

 

Edited March 12, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Cloud 10]

The GEM is doing rather well at the moment in the verification stats,but what is the PRHW14?

 

 

 

 

[draztik]

It would appear the gfs ensembles trending more unsettled into nxt week,

&t168

only the south enjoying an ext period of high pressure; further north not so much.

[Summer Sun]

GFS precipitation chart updated once again it keeps any rainfall for the bulk of England and Wales at day 8

 

Edited March 12, 2014 by Summer Sun

[gottolovethisweather]

Today's 12z  GEM is very different from the GFS and throws in a decent Northerly

later in its run.

 

gemnh-0-216.png

 

This is the key timeframe (21st/22nd March) for coldies now, if we are to see some wintry hope for lowland England this March. Sounds a bit dramatic I guess, but nothing in the reliable suggests that anything other than the rather dominant HP cell will remain at least nearby to Southern England right through to the lower-res output. The NW-SE Britain split pattern continues unabated. Rather cool under cloud and pretty darn pleasant by day in any sunshine, thanks to favourable winds unlike last March where the nagging Easterly/Northeasterly prevailed for a vast part of Spring. I wonder whether if this pattern sticks (largely talking from IMBY here) could we achieve an April like 2007 spell arriving earlier than in that year, anyway that's really for another thread so will leave it there.

Edited March 12, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Man With Beard]

It would appear the gfs ensembles trending more unsettled into nxt week,

&t168

only the south enjoying an ext period of high pressure; further north not so much.

A north south split looking possible next week but I don't think it will be all unsettled in northern areas, just the odd front or two introducing colder air temporarily. Sometimes these Azores highs ridge a bit further north than expected.

I think we can now 98% call an end to major snow opportunities in the south. Next week was the big chance with the northerly, but it's been flattened out like all the others this winter past. Without a decent build-up of cold to the east, that leaves us with potential northerlies as we head towards April - snow still possible but disruptive snow incredibly unlikely outside of Scotland/N England.

[Summer Sun]

ECM not supporting GFS and NAVGEM this evening for mid next week........

 

 

Very unsettled towards the end of ECM's run

 

Edited March 12, 2014 by Summer Sun

[draztik]

 I don't think it will be all unsettled in northern areas, just the odd front or two introducing colder air temporarily.

 

ecm, gem and jma seemingly have other ideas... theyd bring more than the odd front.

[Summer Sun]

A cold end to ECM but something more settled following in?

 

[Sky Full]

I am not liking these charts from the GEM for the 21st - that's only 10 days off and I interpret them as showing much cooler conditions as the low over Scandinavia draws chilly air in from the north...... Have I got this right?

[ANYWEATHER]

Interesting, but confusing times ahead, with Ecm and Gfs as usual differing The gfs shows more settled weather the ecm has none of it with more colder unsettled conditions for just about all ,to the lead up to T+168. Models are really struggling with there output, at the moment, it seems that these two models keep swapping there outlooks for next week. well there you are Ironic,that this month so far in some parts of the Country including this area, we have seen more frosts than the whole of December to February! More to come in the following days....You cant make it up!  

[Frosty.]

The Ecm is sticking to it's guns, tonight's 12z op run follows the trend of recent output with a relatively colder and more unsettled look to next week with brief cold shots, especially further north and with overnight frosts during the quieter interludes. It doesn't look like we are heading back into a full blown unsettled pattern, there will be spells of higher pressure between the atlantic systems, mainly across southern britain but it doesn't look as nice as this week..and certainly nothing like as mild / warm either.

[damianslaw]

Split between GFS and ECM this evening - is GFS having a wobble, it often does this, gets right the pattern beyond 240 hrs then swings away at the 144-168 hr timeframe only to revert back to what it was showing all along..

 

If I was a betting man I would go with the ECM synoptics but probably a toned down northerly. Met office outlook certainly going with a northerly flow as we head towards spring equinox, how many times has it said wintry showers this season, barely any at all, so it must be confident of a colder shot.

 

Longer term, the azores high is lurking to the SW ready to ridge NE, but I doubt it will make the same inroads it has done in the last few days, and as we move into April, I suspect renewed northerly attacks will be the order of the day.

[Stuie]

ECM pretty set on to upset the warm party. This ties in with something Joe laminate floori said a few days ago regarding the strat warming and affecting Europe.

Edited March 12, 2014 by StuieW

[bluearmy]

The GEM is doing rather well at the moment in the verification stats,but what is the PRHW14?

 

cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

I wonder if its the new gfs running in parallel?

[Frosty.]

If we do pick up a Northerly flow next week onwards, we won't need to worry about the wishbone effect which would be for showers restricted to northern, eastern and western coastal regions. The rapidly increasing strength of the mid to late march sunshine means convection levels rocketing and enabling beefy wintry showers to develop and spread out inland, whereas through winter, areas inland would be generally clear and sunny.