Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[phil nw.]

Not a bad outlook from the 12's.

The overall upper pattern is still for rising pressure with an Azores/ Euro. block developing this week.

The surface features will likely vary as we get closer to verification of this change as we do have the jet moving north in the coming days with frontal systems embedded in the flow.

The latest fax's show this so of course there will be a lot of cloud around for a time,even further south,as the high ridges in from the sw.

 

 

Areas further north west will remain more unsettled for the time being by the looks with the polar front still wavering across the north of the UK .

The outlook does look more promising for southern areas though with the continental high never far away with a tendency for frequent ridging north over the next week -GEM a little less bullish on this at first although even there it shows an improvement later in it's run.

[Summer Sun]

Lovely ECM tonight bar a minor blip at t144

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Only a minor blip this morning..

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble continuing to back a pressure rise for England and Wales with a 2 day blip Sunday and Monday

 

 

2 day blip though by Sunday you can see the next high just moving towards the south west

 

 

The high you see at t168 continues to build

 

 

So continued signs of a rise in pressure in 72 hours time for England and Wales this slowly slips south during Saturday and Sunday, then we see a renewed pressure rise moving in early next week

[Summer Sun]

GFS pressure ensembles continuing to support a pressure rise from the 6th with a slight drop to around 1010mb for the 1oth before a quick rise afterwards to the 15th when we see another steady fall to around 1015mb

 

 

The Aberdeen continues to take longer to see a pressure rise so those in the far north and west of Scotland may remain prone to the bulk of the unsettled weather

 

 

Quick look at the rain on the Aberdeen and London ensembles shows the south will become significantly drier than of late this doesn't mean we won't see any rain here but the flood hit communities should see this much needed drier spell continuing for a while yet allowing the flood water to continue to recede with the bulk of any unsettled weather affecting parts of Scotland

 

[The Enforcer]

Typical, even when there is a pressure rise, there are still several fronts straddling the UK, so we still don't get any dry weather.

[summer blizzard]

Hard to believe the 0z runs shook some of us..

 

18z is firmly on the 'give March 2012 a run for its money' side..

 

[Purga]

18z FI however puts us back into the Atlantic zonal conveyor belt regime

 

A long way off and only one run but it cannot be discounted based on this year's extraordinary track record so far.

Edited March 3, 2014 by Purga

[gottolovethisweather]

18z FI however puts us back into the Atlantic zonal conveyor belt regime

 

A long way off and only one run but it cannot be discounted based on this year's extraordinary track record so far.

 

Do you truly believe that will/might/could actually verify at that t+21600 minute timeframe.   I do hope you're having a bubble-bath laugh Purga as I'm beginning to worry about your analysis. Best you stick to the nearer-term, because one day your reverse psychology might actually work.   My region badly needs some HP influence and at last, that is what the broad model output consensus provides, by March 18th things may well have changed for the worse of course. With the hope that the roads can once again become roads and not rivers, folk from the counties which border my location will be relieved to see the change in weather type being forecast.

Edited March 3, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Costa Del Fal]

18z FI however puts us back into the Atlantic zonal conveyor belt regime

 

 

A long way off and only one run but it cannot be discounted based on this year's extraordinary track record so far.

Wow, this is a very misleading post given 90% of the run is settled and warm and you have posted a chart right at the very end of the run. You have seen the volatile state of the runs even in the shorter timeframe so of course deep FI is going to change. 

Edited March 4, 2014 by Blizzards

[draztik]

18z FI however puts us back into the Atlantic zonal conveyor belt regime

A long way off and only one run but it cannot be discounted based on this year's extraordinary track record so far.

the latest update of the ec32 has a rather zonal outlook; from around mid month thru 4 Apr, Atlantic shown to influence our weather. The temp anomaly indicates average to slightly below thru this period also. 18z doesn't look so ridiculous to me, after seeing this from ECM.

this at 18th & 25th march, so obvious caution applies. But the above is indicitive of the model through second half of month.

Edited March 4, 2014 by draztik

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS wants to put high pressure over and just to the east of the UK into week 2

GEM similar

 

ECM currently stuck at day 6 but looking the same way to me

[Polar Maritime]

Next week looks very Spring like, with High Pressure sat over the UK. Much dryer and settled, with little rain, and will feel warm in the Sun.

 

Edited March 4, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

Although I feel cheated and robbed of a winter with any snow and frost for the last 3½ months..i'm really happy to see the GEFS 00z mean showing this for next week, no matter how long it lasts, we should enjoy the welcome break from rain and gales.

Edited March 4, 2014 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

Next week looks very Spring like, with High Pressure sat over the UK. Much dryer and settled, with little rain, and will feel warm in the Sun.

Nice to see incoming HP not being downgraded. However, it's still too early in the year for high pressure to guarantee a 'warm' sun-fest - I imagine the chart you post might actually be a little chilly, as it will have a slight easterly element (though agreed, the sun is starting to strengthen so won't feel too bad if it comes out).Try to box this chart up and bring it out again in June, then it will be a scorcher!

[Summer Sun]

ECM Op hasn't updated on wetterzentral but we have a stunning ensemble run bar a minor blip for some on Sunday though the south misses the blip and stays settled

 

 

Minor blip for some in the north and north west

 

 

Back to high pressure

 

 

 

 

Bank

 

Edited March 4, 2014 by Summer Sun

[joggs]

It should feel very pleasent if them charts come to fruition,seen as europe is not especially cold.

[Summer Sun]

EDIT

 

Thanks Stuart UKMO hasn't updated this morning on wetterzentral

Edited March 4, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Stuart]

that Monday evening run Gavin

[Summer Sun]

Continued signals from the GFS precipitation chart for some significantly drier weather across many parts of the UK

 

[Frosty.]

Massive upgrade in the Ecm 00z ensemble mean from 24 hours ago, high pressure building in and intensifying slap bang on top of the uk whereas yesterday it showed unsettled and windier weather across the north. This could be a glorious spell of early spring weather next week with pleasantly warm temperatures and lots of strong sunshine with light winds but a risk of a touch of frost and fog patches at night..for the areas which bore the brunt of the floods and storms, these charts are heavenly.

[m1chaels]

You can tell the (us) coldies have given up when with a MLB forecast no one is asking about the possibility of retrogression and undercuts

[snow freak]

loving the charts heralding early spring warmth and settled conditions.  As much as i love the cold and snow, i have now given up on this winter as a lost cause.  Roll on the summer now.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Massive upgrade in the Ecm 00z ensemble mean from 24 hours ago, high pressure building in and intensifying slap bang on top of the uk whereas yesterday it showed unsettled and windier weather across the north. This could be a glorious spell of early spring weather next week with pleasantly warm temperatures and lots of strong sunshine with light winds but a risk of a touch of frost and fog patches at night..for the areas which bore the brunt of the floods and storms, these charts are heavenly.

 

The start of the famous 2014 drought maybe !!!

[Summer Sun]

Very good agreement between the GFS and ECM ensembles for next weeks pressure rise

 

 

Beyond t240 the GFS ensemble shows a gradual return to cooler unsettled conditions from the north but lets enjoy this continued break from the stormy condition's first before we worry about what mid month onwards may bring