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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

I wish the Gem would come on side, It is still insisting this settled spell isn't done and dusted 

 

Posted Image

Indeed; Navgem lends some support to the Canadian, keeping things generally unsettled (more to the NW) up until the wkend. Pressure rising thereafter, but not until then. GEM tho, as stubborn as ystrday in saying 'hold on'.

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

As has been mentioned on here in recent days, with the GEM now second in the pecking order in terms of NH SLP verification for days 3 through 8 it remains more than a bit of a niggle:

 

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After the very disappointing and troublesome winter experienced a period of high pressure and some warm days would be a very pleasant way to welcome in the meteorological spring, but just as we had to remain cautious beyond 5 days in the frustrating (non)winter, such advice should be adhered to now too.

 

As strongly behind the scenario of high pressure building across at least the Southern half of the country as even the ECMWF EPS is at the moment we have seen on a number of occasions that even these are far from infallible beyond a few days.

 

Very strongly hoping for something a bit drier and warmer now but until we see a consistent cross-model consensus the wise money is to remain cautious for now.

 

SK

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

I don't think it'll be so cut and dried, it looks like the south will see the best of any dry, and mild weather, but the north and west of Manchester, from where I'm sitting could see some cool weather in the day (single figure maximas) and frosty weather at night, if of course we take the GFS to be true.

 

It's changed quite alot from yesterday in terms of the Atlantic getting rooted in more, and getting closer to a larger part of the UK. 

 

Already we can deduce Scotland and NI will be unsettled, but I think this chance of moving south to include Northern England and perhaps the North and West Midlands. FI is just FI, and I don't buy into the High Pressure scenario for the moment.

 

I think there will be a welcome respite for the more southern areas though, which is the most important thing really.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

UKMO showing the high building nicely over in Europe next Saturday and extending over to the UK the only place to miss out on the settled weather looks to be the north and west of Scotland else where it should turn very mild and even warm when your in any sunshine

 

And further on high pressure dominates only breaking down at t384

 

 

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Well that's the most progressive I've seen the outputs of late with regard to HP influence, I wonder whether it will verify as shown. This is the GFS after all and its tendency to overdo things is well known but if it can nail this as indicated, much kudos to it, given the GFS's better grip on all things zonal. With UKMO on board as well, at least in the near term, we could be looking at a most intriguing March. A bit of a dull pattern for some weather enthusiasts I imagine but judging by my trip around the local patch today, this forecasted HP influence can't come soon enough. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Another good run from ECM it has a slightly wobble from t144 to t192 before pressure builds in again

 

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Slight wobble but not majorly unsettled

 

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t192 shows pressure starting to rise again from the south

 

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t216 and t240 sees the high building once more

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

The ensembles will be interesting again tonight, as we now have the jma adding more weight behind the less settled outlook from gem/navgem; variations of course, but these 3 reluctant to support the more settled outlook, esp from gfs.

Edited by draztik
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all :)

 

Indeed...

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014030212/gem-0-192.png?12

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0

 

Quite some divergence there you'd have to say. GEM has played the unsettled card long and consistently over the past week while GFS has played the MLB card with increasing confidence so one of these two is going to be off the mark. GEM seems to take Atlantic disturbances and run them NE toward us keeping the HP to the south or east while GFS has the block strong enough to divert the LP well south or south-east.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014030212/ECM1-168.GIF?02-0

 

ECM tonight at T+168 illustrates this point with the LP turned SE toward Iberia rather than moving NE toward the UK.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-384.png?12

 

At the far edges of FI, the Control run from GFS points toward a scenario I've suggested over the past few days as we move into a "false spring" period of perhaps ten days of warm, sunny weather before the HP retrogresses (if only it were January !!)  and the trough drops down into Scandinavia offering a much colder final third of March. This will only happen though if the GFS/ECM HP dominated scenario wins out later this coming week and that's not a wholly done deal yet.

 

Before all of that, 48-60 hours of far from pleasant conditions to get through first.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Not much change from the ECM ensemble this evening

 

Becoming settled towards the end of the week especially the further south you go

 

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Pressure then starts to slip away on Saturday and Sunday

 

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Before rebuilding from the 10th

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Well those going to the Alps next week may need some sun cream. However the 06z run showed a fairly strong easterly flow bring snow showers to that region. Not sure the models are correct just yet.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

the pdf I promised this morning

A look at what the overall weather may be like for the middle of March.pdf]

 

A look at what the overall weather may be like for the middle of March.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

I think we will see a settled period, esp so for southern regions late nxt week into wkend - , the NW, however, looks to keep unsettled conditions unfortunately. thereafter it all looks uncertain. The ext ecm ens and gem trend less settled from days 10-15, with ecm showing lower heights to our nw, and the ridge being shunted further south.

Posted Image

day 13 msl mean, ext ecm

Edited by draztik
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The cooler easterly flow into Southern Europe showing again

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Today's met office update has changed markedly from previously and it sounds like a glorious spell of spring weather is on the way with warm sunshine but with chilly nights with a risk of frost and fog, even the north of the uk looks like settling down eventually. Mother Nature always finds a way to balance things out and after the record wet winter we could be on course for a record dry spring with anticyclonic domination..our prayers have finally been answered..Amen to that :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Not what some may want to here but, my take on things is : trending milder and drier by end of the week into second week of March but longer term trending colder and unsettled - no sustained milder dry spell on the cards other than a week at max - i.e. a stunted start to spring.

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Posted
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire

Interesting how the GEM keeps to its bones. I have a small want for some unsettled conditions near the alps w/c 15th. But the main dynamic in the models seems to be if and where any high builds to come this time next week.

 

The GFS has flitted between it centering over the UK, Eastern Europe/Scandi...or the pyrenees over several runs now (post t192) making it hard to draw on any consistency. I dont want to try to predict what may happen but I agree with Damianslaw that a sustained settled spell is only progressed on the GFS and it keeps flipping to where it wants to take it, questioning the length of any 'settled' spell.

 

But we must put things in to context. Even if it is not 'settled' by comparison I expect it to be drier and much less windy than it has been of late, with conditions being much more near average as opposed to record breaking.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Good ensembles from the GFS18z, the operational is another odd one.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Not what some may want to here but, my take on things is : trending milder and drier by end of the week into second week of March but longer term trending colder and unsettled - no sustained milder dry spell on the cards other than a week at max - i.e. a stunted start to spring.

 

 

I would go with a colder than average second half of March still as well though I don't think it will b too wet or stormy.

I'm still happy to stick with the idea of Northerly outbreaks second half of March as the Azores high pulls back West. Not sure how amplified the pattern will be yet but there may be the possibility of a cold spell developing which would come as quite a shock after a mild winter and a warm early Spring.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

Well no comments on the Models , Can see why , settled spell not looking as good this morning , with both GFS and ECM bringing back unsettled conditions. Usually the case as soon as the METO update changes , so do the Models. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

If we use the GEFS 00z mean as a template for the upcoming anticyclonic phase, it shows the settled spell will require two bites at the cherry for the fine spell to become firmly established across most of the uk, however, for the south eastern half of the BI, an early taste of pleasant early spring weather is on track for later this week, it's not smooth sailing, the atlantic still has a few tricks up it's sleeve and looks likely to rock the boat next weekend, especially away from the southeast corner, incidentally, the north and west look like remaining unsettled and breezier / windier until next week with atlantic disturbances but these will gradually be shunted further north and eventually we all look like having a fine spell with warm sunny periods and light winds, temperatures on the rise later in the week, especially across the south / se...but gardeners and growers need to watch out for overnight slight frosts..and patchy fog is also likely where skies remain clear at night. The 00z mean shows unsettled weather returning beyond mid month.

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post-4783-0-33296400-1393833757_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-14650100-1393833758_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Well no comments on the Models , Can see why , settled spell not looking as good this morning , with both GFS and ECM bringing back unsettled conditions. Usually the case as soon as the METO update changes , so do the Models.

yep. I've been trying to wait for the ensembles from ecm/gem before commenting. Its a little galling to think we may have been led up the garden path...tho, the gem was never fully onboard, which led me to be cautious. But I was not expecting to see charts like this, this morning.

Posted ImagePosted Imageecm / t144 &168

Edited by draztik
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Yes, plaudits to GEM who appear to have called this correctly so far. The developing LP shown on GFS and ECM for next Monday this morning was on yesterday's GEM output while GFS/ECM had it swinging away to Iberia with the block holding firm.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014030300/gem-0-234.png?00

 

To be fair, GEM does get there this morning via a slightly odd route as the Atlantic slows and the Azores HP ridges NE and the core of the Atlantic LP swinging NW back towards Canada.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Yes, plaudits to GEM who appear to have called this correctly so far. The developing LP shown on GFS and ECM for next Monday this morning was on yesterday's GEM output while GFS/ECM had it swinging away to Iberia with the block holding firm.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014030300/gem-0-234.png?00

 

To be fair, GEM does get there this morning via a slightly odd route as the Atlantic slows and the Azores HP ridges NE and the core of the Atlantic LP swinging NW back towards Canada.

How can a weather computer model have called things "correctly" today,when the actual day is 9/10 days away?

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

The warm dry spell looking under threat for next weekend

Posted Image

I suspect we're not out of the woods yet despite the wave of optimism yesterday Posted Image

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