Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[JK1]

great charts

Edited February 28, 2014 by JK1

[stodge]

Evening all

 

Well, some interesting output from the models this evening. We still have three or four unsettled and quite wet days to get through before a rise in pressure from midweek and a potentially very pleasant spell next weekend.

 

I've always said, however, the route to very cold starts from very mild and I suspect that as GFS suggests we could be lulled in by next weekend's faux spring lasting perhaps a week before the main pattern change kicks in. March is often a month of curiosities weather-wise and it wouldn't be the first time a warm first half is followed by a colder second half.

[damianslaw]

Interesting models today - all suggesting a pattern change and long last to something much drier thanks to the influence of the azores high building NE into southern parts and more importantly a weakening of the Polar Vortex.

 

GFS is indicating heights building to the NW in time and a scandi trough dropping to our east quickly switching the theme from mild dry to cold dry, ECM however, keen on keeping strong heights to our south and east and over the country. I do rate the GFS in one situation and that is in developments to our NW, it is often the first model to pick up on changes to our NW especially when heights are projected to develop in this vicinity only to drop them medium output but bring them in again, whereas ECM does best with developments to our NE and E.

 

My own thoughts are still for a colder second week with an influence from the north-northwest, going off today's models this could easily happen albeit slightly later than first thought after a very mild dry spell at of next week and into the start of the second week.

 

The key to the pattern is the weakening of the PV - which does now finally appear to be happening.

[ANYWEATHER]

Looking forward to at least a dryer settled spell and the ecm and gfs provides this at T+168, not sure how long this will last but something akin to Spring After that well we will see.......  

[Ali1977]

It seems although high pressure builds with each run, it goes less east and slightly north. If this trend keeps going a northerly flow and greens high may come quicker than currently progged.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble showing a rise in pressure now

 

 

[Ali1977]

High pressure wiped out in this run

[Frosty.]

It's interesting to note the comparisons between the freebie model output in the public domain which generally indicate a settled anticyclonic spell evolving next week from the south against the latest met office update today which implies a much slower trend towards the weather settling down. It could well be that n.ireland and scotland continue unsettled with low pressure to the north west, with the south and east ending up more settled but not entirely so, weakening fronts could slide south east at times. I have to say I'm totally demoralised by the events of the last four months.

[skifreak]

Looks to me like we could be on the cusp of a pattern change to something much drier

For the South East possibly, we are potentially on the cusp of the doomsday scenario of warm, very windy and wet for Highland Scotland which given the volume of snow on the mountains could lead to unprecidented flooding if we get the full on hairdryer treatment on the hills.

[Frosty.]

I don't have any sympathy for highland scotlands potential hairdryer treatment, munro level, 2000 feet and above got all the snow and most of the uk has had a snowless and almost frostless winter.

[summer blizzard]

18z builds pressure very early, as early as day 5..

 

 

It does however fairly quickly move the high west such that the UK stays in a cool pattern until the end of the run when pressure looks to be building east again.

 

 

[Frosty.]

Hey guys its official..winter is finally over..L0L

Models show unsettled weather persisting until midweek, but by then the further south east you are looks dry with sunny spells, by contrast, the further north west you are, the more unsettled it will be with frequent wet and windy spells.

[Tim Bland]

Wow what a winter! Time to count the scores on the regional snow competitions lol. 300000 posts and not a single flake!! Off to Andora today should see 50cm fall between today and Thursday so I'll get my fix. Feel sorry for snow lovers who will have to wait another year though

[Frosty.]

Wow what a winter! Time to count the scores on the regional snow competitions lol. 300000 posts and not a single flake!! Off to Andora today should see 50cm fall between today and Thursday so I'll get my fix. Feel sorry for snow lovers who will have to wait another year though

LOL Tim, have a good one..i'm just wondering about all those severe weather warnings for snow the other day, did anyone actually get more than 1cm...or 1 wet flake even i'm dreaming of a white easter.

[lindy2017]

LOL Tim, have a good one..i'm just wondering about all those severe weather warnings for snow the other day, did anyone actually get more than 1cm...or 1 wet flake even i'm dreaming of a white easter.

 We got snow yesterday didnt last long more to come  monday -2 here now frosty...............

[Frosty.]

 We got snow yesterday didnt last long more to come  monday -2 here now frosty...............

Glad you had a winter then lindy..most of us didn't

[Polar Maritime]

Thank god we can now put our crap Winter behind us, and look forward to Spring !

 

And what a lovely start this morning... The GFS is showing a N/S split from mid-week giving a good opportunity for things to dry out a little in the South after months of endless rain this Winter.

 

 

Hints of a cooler Easterly flow out in FI, but that's all it is for now, and probably all it will be..

 

Edited March 1, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[bluearmy]

All the extended ens output finally settling on a dryish outlook for the south of the uk at least. Less so the further north west you go. A fairly typical nw/se split although i suspect the nuances will change as the modelled placement of the blocking is revised.

[Summer Sun]

Another good run from ECM continuing to show pressure building later next week

 

 

 

 

 

UKMO is trying

 

 

GFS has it in at t120

 

 

Seems to be growing confidence from the experts now as well

 

@fergieweather

 

Growing signs for optimism later next week... dry, settled & mild conditions looking increasingly likely.

 

 

Edited March 1, 2014 by Summer Sun

[draztik]

GFS 6z moving in line with the other models, and the ens at/around t102, delaying the pressure rise somewhat - I did think it looked out of sync with its 0z run (comparing)

ECM & GEM ens also less bullish re improvements nationwide until much later in their runs, compared with GEFS.

 

Interesting to point out, the GEM model is currently the 2nd ranked model after ECM @ 120 & 144, and ranked #1 at day 10/ Ensembles. Big Up to the Canadians!

Edited March 1, 2014 by draztik

[Summer Sun]

Pressure ensembles continuing to back a rise in pressure towards the end of next week

 

 

Slightly more scatter on the Aberdeen ensemble but a rise in pressure is still shown

 

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z shows temperatures rising later next week someone could hit 18 or 19c quite easily with temperatures widely in the teens

 

Temperatures briefly fall down

 

 

Before rising again

 

 

I'd certainly Bank that run with out doubt

 

Could we be in for a March similar to 2012 every chance if GFS is onto something and after all the rain we've had we could now be entering a prolonged period of little rainfall which will be greatly welcomed by many

 

[damianslaw]

Models will continue to play around with the position of projected heights rises - yesterday for instance GFS had the high pressure anchoring NW, this morning it has it anchoring east - what to take from this? there is far too much scatter to all at this long range just how things may pan out and consequently massive room for margins of error. In such set ups stick to the reliable timeframe i.e. 96-120 hrs.

[draztik]

GFS 06z shows temperatures rising later next week someone could hit 18 or 19c quite easily with temperatures widely in the teens

 

 

Could we be in for a March similar to 2012 every chance if GFS is onto something and after all the rain we've had we could now be entering a prolonged period of little rainfall which will be greatly welcomed by many

 

 

Unfortunately its ensemble suite has trashed the idea of a significant temp rise as shown by the op (esp so, latter stages). An outlier if ever I saw one.

Edited March 1, 2014 by draztik

[Ali1977]

Yeah, the Op seems a bit OTT. Quite a few Ens are showing the high more to the west of the uk allowing cooler conditions to effect the UK. Not sure the models have a grip of next weeks warm/dry spell yet. I think we can be sure whatever happens it's going to be better than of late.