Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[Cloud 10]

We seem to be heading back towards low pressure pushing straight through the UK with the ECM now lining another one up

 

Some pretty cold air associated with that LP as well which would provide some "interesting"

surface conditions if it verified.

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM is having another go in FI to bring something more settled like it did this morning

 

Edited February 26, 2014 by Summer Sun

[CHANNEL LOW]

i'm from West Sussex, downtown L.A. Littlehampton, a true channel low would be wonderful.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends settled as per the 00z run

 

[Tim Bland]

It ends settled Gav but gets there via a very different route. Difficult to have any confidence, but you could say all roads lead to Rome!

[ANYWEATHER]

The NMM-6 shows the precip on Friday morning Just encountering the south of England and the south of Wales. Im really not sure any forecast for rain ,sleet and snow will be accurate for this time frame ,although it looks to be a Southern thing  

Edited February 26, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[gottolovethisweather]

i'm from West Sussex, downtown L.A. Littlehampton, a true channel low would be wonderful.

 

And its good to have you on board, if you believe, you may well get lucky too. Its just those non-believing types who only accept it when they can't open their doors for the stuff which generated the original comment I believe. Don't be too disappointed if it doesn't happen once again, we'll just have to consign this Winter to the record books for all the wrong reasons.

Edited February 26, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Purga]

friday morning in the west midlands peeps !!  winter may finally make it on the last day (though someone from w sussex will be along shortly to disagree !)

[gottolovethisweather]

Purely for fun really, but tis NOT going to be a mild start to Spring one can clearly state.

 

Some of the more interesting Snow Risk charts over the coming four to five days, note the timeframes involved in each case.

 

- Friday 28th 1800 hours

- Saturday 1st March 1800 hours

 - Sunday 2nd March 0000 hours

- Monday 3rd March 0000 hours

- Monday 3rd March 0300 hours

 

There is clearly a messy forecasting period ahead of us which sadly doesn't revolve around High Pressure opportunities for the start of Spring for those that badly need the dry weather. It will arrive at some point but yet more patience required. As for what we are to receive, I wouldn't want to place my bets on any one specific location getting snow, yet alone lying snow but the risk is there, as is the possibility of yet further flooding and strong winds. In hindsight, perhaps this is the start of a broader pattern change of sorts, time will tell I guess.

Edited February 26, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[draztik]

The ecm op and its mean diverge latter stages of run, with the mean much less keen on any pressure rise. Low pressure still dominant, esp so the more NW you are.

ecm op & mean @t240

this would tie in with American models (gefs & Canadian) mean at same timeframe;

Edited February 26, 2014 by draztik

[damianslaw]

Mmm this is a tricky time to be forecasting even in the short term - its a very messy situation, so take what the models are showing 4-5 days out + with a pinch of salt as they are struggling with the 48 hour timeframe - its a developing situation, and a nowcasting situation projecting where Thursday night low is likely to move.

 

The weekend looks very messy now, with low pressure and frontal features languishing aimlessly over the country under a chilly airmass. Indeed its quite a cold outlook for the time of year.

 

I said a couple of days ago, my thoughts are for an unsettled and quite cool/cold first half to March with low pressure forced on a SE path across the country and the models are now indicating this at least for the start of the month. I'm not too sure about ECM tonight with its azores high ridge becoming a major scandi/euro high. Probably not until the second half of the month before we see things settling down somewhat.

[Iceni]

Very early build was good in September , but it grinded to a holt in October and never moved westwards at all. Good Eurasian snow cover is a proven aid to our winter cold chances

 

But a huge Greenie High is even better. We got the opposite.

[Frosty.]

How ironic that the last day of the meteorological winter looks like being the most wintry day of the last 12-15 weeks. Modest hills and higher ground across the midlands, wales and northern england could have a decent fall of wet snow but low ground probably a mix of cold rain and sleet, the weekend looks rather chilly too, relative to how very mild and springlike the last few weeks have been.

[Captain Shortwave]

I have to admit a lot of doubt over snow potential for Friday morning, I think it will be more down to evaporative cooling than anything else as everything looks very marginal and predicted maxima look too warm for anything worthwhile at low levels. Saying that in March 2012 on a journey home from Portsmouth to Southampton I did experience a spell of heavy wet snow after a thoroughly wet morning. It didn't settle but it was quite exciting for watch so maybe some people might get lucky.

 

From a personal point of view, I would rather be done with this winter and take some kind of blocking high close to the UK like the later frames of the ECM as the only real shots of cold we seem to get is route one from the state which always makes things marginal but one definite is a lot of rain. The ECM ensembles show a more north/south split developing but frankly how much trust can be said about the extent of any drier weather.

Edited February 26, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[andymusic]

euro 4 latest

 

Edited February 27, 2014 by reef
Original post removed

[SE Blizzards]

GFS 18Z not in agreement with the ECM's idea of HP at days 9 / 10 

 

 

 

It's not until deep FI the GFS then shows some settled weather... albeit cool, with some widespread frosts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Still no reals signs as of yet from most of the models of an early taste of warm springlike weather.

Edited February 27, 2014 by reef
Original post removed

[summer blizzard]

Interesting models today..

 

Firstly we have the snow event on Friday, now i won't comment on snow/rain but it's worth noting over the years that these events typically move further south closer to the time and indeed the 18z gives my postcode just 2.2mm tonight. It would not be a suprise if the front failed to reach here.

 

Secondly we do appear to have a trend. Granted not many runs but the ECWMF12z backs the 0z and in addition the GFS18z builds pressure further south and west initially just 2 days later..

 

[Frosty.]

I have forgotton what cold weather feels like but friday 28th February could bring a loooong overdue reminder, roll on friday, wet snow could be making the headlines for one day at least.

[Skyraker]

This winter is very similar to 94/95.

The upside is 1995 was a beaut of a summer.

[The PIT]

A wet day for the South Friday possible Snow welsh hills. Saturday night Looking interesting for the north as does Sunday night into Monday. Plenty of time for a change yet. but a cool start to spring and still possibly a more wintry one than the whole of previous winter.

[Captain Shortwave]

The rain (or snow) on Friday looks set to affect anywhere from Swansea to Kings Lynn southwards.

UKMO

GFS

Possible snow over higher locations but probably rain at low levels unless you are lucky.

 

Further on, there is some signs of pressure building from the south west in some shape or form after a spell of chilly weather.

ECM

GFS

GEM

Edited February 27, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[IDO]

Looks like GFS pressure build from the SW is garnering a little more support. The London ens:

 

   

 

The op and control are again leading the way, so temp wise they are at the top end. All in FI (from D10) so still no confidence. The GEFS remain split with a more zonal flow as likely, T240 mean:  

 

However GEM, that has been unusually zonal of late, is also now hinting at a pressure rise:

 

ECM hinting at temporary ridging? T216:  Like the GFS mean the lower pressure anomaly to our NW remains and no long term pattern change looking likely in the medium term:  

 

GFS op therefore probably not yet a strong bet.

 

As for the snow risk Friday, a narrow band across the middle of the UK with rain to the south and drier further north looks the likely scenario.

 

Fax chart t36:  

 

 

[chiller]

This winter is very similar to 94/95.The upside is 1995 was a beaut of a summer.

And the following winter of 95/96 was rather good if memory serves me?  What a horrendous winter this has been.  So much optimism last October as always, only to be utterly disappointed.

[Summer Sun]

Once again this morning longer term prospects from ECM show something more settled developing

 

 

GFS for the same period

 

 

As we run GFS on longer the high continues to build

 

 

[reef]

I appreciate it has been a long and frustrating winter for those who like cold weather, but that's no excuse for tearing pieces out of each other.

 

Please try to stay on topic and stick to model discussion.

 

Thanks.