Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[Summer Sun]

ECM back to something more settled in deepest FI

 

Edited February 26, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Frank Trough]

 

from Met Office at midnight

 Trend for Days 10-15

: A trend away from an increased incidence of anticyclonic outcomes continues, with an increased signal of deep lows crossing the N of the UK through the period. 

 

 

....despite the GFS's best efforts in the shorter term! Quite incredible really the longevity of this pattern. Is this the longest "westerly" outbreak ever recorded?! So we are now looking at mid march before any real change comes about? Hopefully the emphasis will remain on a more "traditional" zonal pattern though, from an IMBY perspective I don't want to see that gradually eroded away.

[SparkleS]

Looks like wind and rain again if US are getting this again?? Is that right?

http://news.sky.com/story/1217404/us-set-to-shiver-as-polar-vortex-bites-again

[stodge]

Morning all

 

A rare chance for me to comment on the model output this morning.

 

GFS 06Z is rolling out as I type but the 00Z is about as uninspiring as it gets if you want weather outside the norm.

 

ECM 00Z offers an anticyclonic solution at T+240 with an HP over Denmark and what would be, I ssuspect, pleasant enough daytime conditions though with colder nights. GFS notes the emergence of a Eurasian HP but doesn't bring it close enough to western Europe to influence the weather.

 

GEM is on the other hand much more disturbed (as it seems to have been throughout the winter) with a return to Jan/early Feb type charts with powerful LP systems moving across the UK.

 

UKMO isn't that interested in a pressure build from the Azores either in the short-term and directs the flow NW-SE which wouldn't be that mild either.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Looks like wind and rain again if US are getting this again?? Is that right? http://news.sky.com/story/1217404/us-set-to-shiver-as-polar-vortex-bites-again

That truly is incredible , at least somewhere has a snowy winter. Now all we need next winter is that eastern pacific ridge to set up shop in the mid Atlantic and be as dominating there as it has over there!! To be fair we was due a mild one , glad it's out the way now. Next year will be better , -QBO , past solar max . . . We need a good build up of Eurasian snow cover through October to push west this time !

[draztik]

The positive signals from the 0z ecm suite continue, with more substantive ridging indicated esp days 10-15, following on from yesterdays 12z.

by day 13, the msl mean shows the uk under influence of hp, with lows up and around Greenland - great news if this continues to be shown. (In contrast with the latest MetO analysis into days 10-15)

[Summer Sun]

00z and now the 06z showing some wintry weather Sunday night and into Monday

 

 

Something to watch over the coming days

[summer blizzard]

ECWMF0z knows how to please a man..

 

[johnholmes]

The positive signals from the 0z ecm suite continue, with more substantive ridging indicated esp days 10-15, following on from yesterdays 12z.

by day 13, the msl mean shows the uk under influence of hp, with lows up and around Greenland - great news if this continues to be shown. (In contrast with the latest MetO analysis into days 10-15)

 

It is of course only one model so judging by the post from Jo earlier Exeter, having weighed up the different models, are tending the way that Jo suggests. It will be interesting to see if their output changes based on this.

[snow freak]

That truly is incredible , at least somewhere has a snowy winter. Now all we need next winter is that eastern pacific ridge to set up shop in the mid Atlantic and be as dominating there as it has over there!! To be fair we was due a mild one , glad it's out the way now. Next year will be better , -QBO , past solar max . . . We need a good build up of Eurasian snow cover through October to push west this time !

i remember reading in early winter 2013 that there was a good an early build up of Eurasian snow cover last year so not sure this would make any difference to us to be honest.

[Mair Snaw]

Yellow warning for snow on the met office for Friday morning for a large part of central and west UK....ive not seen anything in the todays output to suggest this. maybe some of us will see some snow after all on the last day of winter....if it does happen it will be only the 3rd snow falling day of the winter here in my part of the peak district this winter...lets hope March can provide some more fun as it did in 2013...

[gottolovethisweather]

Yellow warning for snow on the met office for Friday morning for a large part of central and west UK....ive not seen anything in the todays output to suggest this. maybe some of us will see some snow after all on the last day of winter....if it does happen it will be only the 3rd snow falling day of the winter here in my part of the peak district this winter...lets hope March can provide some more fun as it did in 2013...

 

I think you should try reading a page or two back but be careful because there are differing views on it all.

 

This for example, http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79434-model-output-discussion-13th-feb-onwards/?p=2938595 and then this, http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79434-model-output-discussion-13th-feb-onwards/?p=2938678 but there are others.

 

I think the excitement isn't there to that high a degree as it will likely be a transient event but given how the Winter has gone, snow is still snow for me, should I get to see some.

Edited February 26, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

i remember reading in early winter 2013 that there was a good an early build up of Eurasian snow cover last year so not sure this would make any difference to us to be honest.

Very early build was good in September , but it grinded to a holt in October and never moved westwards at all. Good Eurasian snow cover is a proven aid to our winter cold chances

[cotswoldsnow]

my first post as cotswoldsnow having moved from london after 24 years (i was londonsnow then). having scrutinised the models it's no catwalk out there for friday especially. where this blighter goes is still guesswork and another forecasting nightmare both in terms of track and timing but the beeb have admitted all this so we'll see. cheers cs

[shaky]

Ukmo still looking promising for snow friday morning across wales and the midlands in particular!!!-4 uppers and heavy precipitation in a very slack flow and also the time of day that it happens is a huge advantage!!!

[shaky]

As usual let's rule out yorkshire and just have midlands

actually mate that band of precipitation could swerve further north into yorkshire later on friday so your not completely out if yet!!!lets see how it all pans out!!

[LeeSnowFan]

As usual let's rule out yorkshire and just have midlands

UKMO is certainly looking good for some areas on Friday 

 

there is a yellow warning out for all of yorkshire from MO on there website! 

 

but GFS isnt showing snow for friday at all so who knows what will happen 

[Tamara]

 

The winter pattern, as suspected, looks to prove harder to completely break down than might be hoped for. Some progress is certainly being made, but whilst there is clearly no return suggested to anything like the intensity of the pattern seen for much of the winter season, the extent of any proper improvement I think remains uncertain and continues to be liable to set backs.

 

there is a risk of the upper trough dominating more than may seem currently apparent, and with the Azores High more suppressed than recent modelling has shown.

 

The amount of scatter there is in the latest London ECM ensembles, with a significant number of higher rainfall and wind strength solutions indicated than the operational, underpins the thinking and suggested possibility that the upper trough might stay more dominant and extensive, and with the Azores High to be further south than currently suggested by the latest ECM operational. (The ECM yesterday evening produced one of those much more unsettled solutions)

 

From a weather pattern point of view things continue to be of significant interest (at least for some) even if the hunting in vain for (proper) cold weather finally succumbed to white-washed hopes in tandem with the ever lengthening days and seasonal change to official Spring almost on us.

 

This record breaking winter for rainfall and sheer persistence of cyclonicity and depth of low pressure holds significance for its unprecendence, albeit not for any enjoyment and preference whatsoever of course of the surface conditions, for most of us.

 

There already has been 'change' to the intensity of the pattern, as documented previously - with the gradients slowly reducing and meeting the expectations of natural seasonal changes, and in relative terms simply making it a typical late winter/early Spring unsettled pattern rather than sustained storm bombardment.

 

This now puts into a correct context the recent suggestions from the modelling of the extent for the Azores High to begin to exert an influence on the pattern to much better things, most especially for southern parts.

 

Those wetter and windier ensemble members, mentioned the other day, have indeed proved to be closer to the mark than the attempted persistence of the ECM operational to ridge the Azores High towards Southern UK.

 

This is simply answered by the much more credible persistence of the sub tropical jet stream in tandem with the still organised Canadian vortex to keep suppressing and flattening the Azores High and ensuring that lows keep tracking further south than modelling (most especially the ECM) have been trying to suggest. 

 

Full support for stronger troughing to our NW into next week than suggested recently is indicated amongst the 0z EPS member maps

 

However, we should be equally cautious about this mornings ECM which might well have gone too much the other way and overdone the southward extent of cyclonicity. The London ECM ensembles support certainly a more unsettled pattern, extending further south at times, than its deterministic model has suggested in recent days - but todays operational looks equally unsupported in its rainfall predictions. Ironically, it also looks to have overdone the downstream ridge into Europe by day 10

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html.

 

Ordinarily we might expect a re-activated MJO moving to phase 7/8 to amplify the pattern much more in our atlantic sector, but with stratospheric activity continuing to be unresponsive to change the lower atmospheric profiles and keeping the vortex locked in, then we should expect amplification instead to persist in the wrong part of the NH and ensure that parts of the US and Canada continue to receive noteworthy cold conditions for a while longer - in the same way as we continue to receive very different surface conditions under the same static NH and polar profile regime.

 

This pattern bulldozes on then into the start of the Spring, and only slow moderational changes are led by increasing solar strength and shortening wave lengths whilst we wait/hope for the polar stratosphere to engage much more significant changes to the pattern. I personally think these are possible further down the line with what I think could be quite a responsive final warming out of the vortex eventually (a bit like an elastic rebound from the extremely cold layers of the mid stratosphere as seen through the winter)

 

However, a tad speculative here, but the result could simply be that as the vortex finally relaxes and pressure rises over the pole in our sector, we could be left with a jet stream reluctant to move as far north as quickly as we might like to warm things up (in the total absence of the winter feedbacks that led to the deep cold pooling and March 2013 conditions that made things so very interesting back then).

 

Hence the first part of Spring (March as a whole) could continue unsettled and also become rather below average temperature wise - in ironic contrast to the temperature profiles of the winter season.

Edited February 26, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[winterof79]

UKMO is certainly looking good for some areas on Friday there is a yellow warning out for all of yorkshire from MO on there website! but GFS isnt showing snow for friday at all so who knows what will happen

If GFS shows a no snow event its nailed on for it to snow..well that's if it works the opposite to when it shows snowmaggedon. Edited February 26, 2014 by winterof79

[The PIT]

Ignoring Fridays Snowcast which has a big problem. No rainfall shown for us the Midlands may have a surprise though. Without precipitation it can't snow. Saturday looks more interesting as the low loops back as does  Sunday at times. Both worth keeping an eye on. Well spring may give us more Snow than the entire Winter combined oh how ironic. We need to watch that Low though where it goes is the key.

[stodge]

Afternoon all

 

Have to say the GFS 12Z Operational output looks much less settled than this morning's which might tie in with Tamara's comments.  This hardly screams settled to me;

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022612/gfs-0-192.png?12

 

Still a lot of very cold air over NE Canada even at this stage:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022612/gfsnh-13-348.png?12

 

GEM also stays very unsettled - the 528DAM line moves up and down the British Isles but never too far away.

 

I really thought this would be the coldest week of the winter - it now seems we may be looking at mid-March at the earliest for any kind of break. Again, Tamara's thought on the denouement of this protracted spell are of interest and the possibility of a cooler and wetter summer than many of us on here would want isn't one we can affords to dismiss. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see April and May dominated by northern blocking but that's an observation for elsewhere.

[Cloud 10]

Latest fax chart for Friday highlights the snow risk for the Midlands especially.

 

 

 

 

On a side note,i've took the winter tyres off the car today and replaced them with summer ones

as a last throw of the dice to encourage some snowfall. 

[Captain Shortwave]

We seem to be heading back towards low pressure pushing straight through the UK with the ECM now lining another one up

[Summer Sun]

Non of the big 3 have nailed down the exact positioning of the low on Friday even at this late stage hence the uncertainty expressed on the TV forecasts from the beeb

 

 

Beyond Friday ECM lines up another deep low in a weeks time

 

Edited February 26, 2014 by Summer Sun

[bluearmy]

friday morning in the west midlands peeps !!  winter may finally make it on the last day (though someone from w sussex will be along shortly to disagree !)