Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[damianslaw]

Continued signs of a pattern change of sorts as we move into March - all thanks to a more amplified flow over the atlantic, something we haven't seen once all winter.

 

Winter will end on the same tune  with the atlantic dominating and a westerly flow bringing further wind and rain with temperatures slightly above normal in the south, nearer average further north. Come the end of the month - well we have low pressure tracking SE and look pressure rising behind and to the NW which is a significant change to what has happened all winter. Thus next weekend looks like being quite chilly with a northwesterly flow pushing in some wintry showers to the north and east and a good chance of a widespread air frost - again something we haven't seen much of all winter.

 

As we move into March proper - there are signals of heights to the SW becoming quite a key player, hopefully drying things out in the south as they ridge NE from time to time, but the north will still be under the influence of lower heights to the NW and these on occasion could muscle in on any azores high ridge development forcing it back west and pulling in cooler northwesterlies - just as we look like seeing next weekend.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

No UKMO today? fax updated but ukmo still on yesterdays 12Z, may tell me at top but cannot speak french

[karyo]

No UKMO today? fax updated but ukmo still on yesterdays 12Z, may tell me at top but cannot speak french

The UKMO must have taken the day off! The 12z ECMWF is also late for whatever reason.

 

Karyo

[The PIT]

They probably re-checking the data as it's shown spring has also been skipped and we're now having summer this coming weekend. Not even updated in GFS extra so there's a data problem somewhere.

[Tony27]

The UKMO must have taken the day off! The 12z ECMWF is also late for whatever reason.

 

Karyo

let's be honest is anyone really bothered that the ECM hasn't come out yet, the charts will just be showing mundane synoptics anyway

[SE Blizzards]

You can view todays ECM 12Z here. Just updating now... out to 120h

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

[I remember Atlantic 252]

let's be honest is anyone really bothered that the ECM hasn't come out yet, the charts will just be showing mundane synoptics anyway

 

Yeah, true, main model out GFS

[SE Blizzards]

Yeah, true, main model out GFS

 

Why is the GFS the 'main model'?

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM T168

Low pressure should go south east through the UK

[The PIT]

Funny performance in recent days at day five GFS the top with ECM yet on day six a distant third. 24 hours making such a difference.....

[snowmadchrisuk]

Not a bad UKMO +144 chart , Nice to see Pressure rising in the right place . 

 

[karyo]

You can view todays ECM 12Z here. Just updating now... out to 120h

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

Thank you!

 

It is thankfully better than I expected (i.e. chillier than the 0z).

 

Karyo

[SE Blizzards]

Thank you!

 

It is thankfully better than I expected (i.e. chillier than the 0z).

 

Karyo

 

Yep, looks like the ECM 12Z has ditched its earlier idea of High Pressure.

 

Not really a surprise as High Pressure now a days is as rare as rocking horse s***

Edited February 23, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well IMO UKMO and ECM have taken the Colder route, and first week of March looking quite Wintry compared to recent weeks ...

[SE Blizzards]

Ecm 12Z ends with cool NW winds 

 

 

Edited February 23, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[snowmadchrisuk]

Ecm 12Z ends with cool NW winds 

 

 

Yes you could almost be mistaken for thinking a Cold outbreak is round the corner .. Will check the CFS in a minute to see what it thinks ... Hope this doesn't turn into Euro's V GFS as IMO Euro's look much better from a Cold point of view. Maybe we can still squeeze 1 more wide spread Snow chance out of this Winter , it is just about possible under the right conditions. 

[karyo]

I like how the Azores High stays out in the Atlantic and helps those northwesterlies come in from time to time.

 

The Atlantic SSTs are at their lowest in March so less moderation than say in December.

 

Karyo

[cooling climate]

The models more in line with what I would expect to see going forward. Expect to see more upgrades in future runs for a colder  and perhaps more wintry outlook.

[The PIT]

Nice ECM tonight. UKMO not too bad either. JMA is a beauty. Should ensure the skiing season gets another boost

[bluearmy]

Not surprised to see ECM op ditch the Azores ridge in fi re the the earlier ens spreads. Would also be unsurprised to see it back on the next op run.

Meteociel charts earlier had me thinking how incredibly consistent the runs were!

[ANYWEATHER]

The output  tonight from ecm and gfs show in sorts at this unreliable time frame [T+249] of some very cold zonal weather. Perhaps March will deliver the Late Winter goods, and give us snow starved folk at least a sight of a snowflake  

[SE Blizzards]

Will check the CFS in a minute to see what it thinks

 

The chocolate fireguard (aka CFS) keeps banging the drum for a fairly cold March/April.

 

I seem to remember it doing likewise last year, and we all know what happened there.

Edited February 23, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[Purga]

The output  tonight from ecm and gfs show in sorts at this unreliable time frame [T+249] of some very cold zonal weather. Perhaps March will deliver the Late Winter goods, and give us snow starved folk at least a sight of a snowflake  

 

Here's a nice snowflake

 

 

It's about the only one you're likely to see anytime soon.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The chocolate fireguard (aka CFS) keeps banging the drum for a fairly cold March/April.

 

I seem to remember it doing likewise last year, and we all know what happened there.

Well have a good feeling about it , 3 months is plenty of time for PV domination , time for a change ... Would love to live in the Midlands over the next few weeks . 

[gottolovethisweather]

Purga spreading the love as ever, have you not checked the latest outputs? The coming start to Spring is certainly looking a damn sight more wintry than the whole of the Winter season itself, furthermore the last dozen to two dozen posts (model related) confirm this to be the case. It still could be a chase of false hope but at least frosts look likely to return and that for me is something to be cheery about from a cold lover like myself and I believe your own good self, unless you have reverted to the other side.

 

No more confusing posts please as at last we have something to chat about other than the potential for a recurring pattern that's been here during the vast part of the last three months.

 

My thoughts from yesterday remain similar in spite of the updates since.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79434-model-output-discussion-13th-feb-onwards/?p=2937378

 

Many other posts within here also show similar opinions to my own so hopefully something's up and BBC Countryfile confirmed that veiw too.

Edited February 23, 2014 by gottolovethisweather