Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[bobbydog]

nice....

 

[That ECM]

nice....

 

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2895/gfs-2-372_uqt5.png

As we are posting unlikely charts!!

[bluearmy]

of more note is the extended ecm ens mean introduces another shot of deeply cold air into the ne of the states and eastern canada which reinvigorates the jet. without some strong blocking this side of the atlantic, we will probably be looking at a further round of more notable rain and potentially windy again as we move into the final days of feb and onwards into march.

Edited February 15, 2014 by bluearmy

[bobbydog]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2895/gfs-2-372_uqt5.pngAs we are posting unlikely charts!!

 

actually the CFS is showing blocked charts with easterlies from the middle of march right into april! it would be typical for that to actually happen!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=534&mode=0&carte=1&run=0

Edited February 15, 2014 by bobbydog

[Tamara]

The stateside holding pattern that has done its worst for our downstream fortunes has sent arctic air to fairly southern parts of the US and engaged with a vigourous sub tropical jet stream to despatch us the extra tropical disruptive bombs of this week that take us to the here and now as the latest deep low starts to head out of the UK and towards Scandinavia through this afternoon and evening.

 

The pattern upstream relaxes for a time, much as expected, and the jet stream coming out of NE Canada accordingly relaxes somewhat too. A few pointers for this winter can be gleaned by the observed PNA pattern. No coincidence that the bifurcated jet stream flow we saw mid January, as the polar vortex attempted to split, and lead to atlantic trough disruption phases 1 to 2 and hopes of the Scandi High moving far enough west to the UK coincided with that +PNA spike on the chart. No coincidence also that the -PNA phase afterwards that teamed up with the refuelled Canadian vortex has led since then to the flat and intensely furious atlantic pattern of recent weeks

 

 

The forecast reflects that temporary reduction in the Pacific/US jet stream pattern with a return to a more neutral status for a time, but with the Canadian vortex continuing to stay put for now, and that winter resident trough extending from it into the atlantic there is no definitive pattern change, yet, to more settled weather and it will keep low pressure of lesser intensity tracking across the atlantic towards the UK. Also, (uncertain) much longer term ensemble data suggests renewed cold to return stateside as we head closer towards the end of February and we know by now what that could mean this side of the atlantic under this vortex regime.

 

However, at the moment, no data suggests a return to the extremes we have seen - and whilst the upper Canadian vortex pattern is modelled much the same as we have seen for so long, seasonal changes and shortening wave lengths will also moderate more and more the temperature gradients as time heads further and further towards winters official end and the start of March. We also keep looking towards the stratosphere and signs of the seasonal vortex 'warming out' in calendar response to Spring approaching

 

As bluearmy has just indicated, the atlantic trough later next week holding back as the jet pattern pauses somewhat, looks favourable as modelled for something of a downstream ridge over Europe to change the angle of attack further NW 'werds much as suggested for the last week or so to follow this turbulent period. So for now, continued unsettled weather seems likely but with the lows of less intensity and southern areas taking less of the brunt of these with some longer drier intervals in between rain bands.

 

Beyond the 8 to 10 day period needs to be watched as to how any *possible* reloading cold pattern stateside may manifest itself. This might well return the unsettled weather more generally southwards once more - but there are too many uncertainties about that for now, and it seems the longer term GFS ensembles are the most bullish about returning to the US freezer. Edit - it seems ECM ensembles are picking up on this too as bluearmy posts !

Edited February 15, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Quite worrying when we are still getting outputs of this jet to stay put and throw more storms our way. My concern, is if this pattern stays like this, with increasing dew points as the sun gets stronger, we will see even more rain adding to the horrendous situations we are already in. 

[Joe Levy]

Great post Tamara. My interpretation of that would be that whilst we can look forward to a bit of a respite from the tempestuous weather this week, it may only be a respite if the cold does return over the Eastern United States. Obviously that is a fairly simplistic way of putting it, but one thing I have understood since joining this forum is that whatever happens, a strong jet rarely does us any favours!

[Backtrack]

Quite worrying when we are still getting outputs of this jet to stay put and throw more storms our way. My concern, is if this pattern stays like this, with increasing dew points as the sun gets stronger, we will see even more rain adding to the horrendous situations we are already in. 

 

 

I think as time goes on as we see the Polar Vortex diminishing, we're likely to see less cold air pumped across the Atlantic, of course with this cold air been one of the main sources of fuel for these intense lows we're seeing, they're likely to become less intense, therefore heralding a pattern change as we go into Spring. I originally thought a colder Spring may of been on the cards, but I think it's rather unfavorable now, although I think the chances of a cooler summer have increased as a result of this.

Edited February 15, 2014 by Backtrack

[Summer Sun]

Speaking of the USA here is the 8 day 2m temperature anomaly

 

[Eastwoods]

First comment on the models, though deep in FI 2/3rd march on the GFS looks to have cool uppers with a slack northerly flow. I was wondering if with the jetstream flowing through southern europe,the low pressure to the sw would be taken through the med potentially dragging much colder temps down from the ne? However unlikely more of an exercise in learning please feel free to shoot down in flames:-)

[Jason M]

Quite worrying when we are still getting outputs of this jet to stay put and throw more storms our way. My concern, is if this pattern stays like this, with increasing dew points as the sun gets stronger, we will see even more rain adding to the horrendous situations we are already in.

Agree with this and I've been thinking the same thing to be honest. Low heights and a strong march sun add up to only one thing and that's big shower clouds! We could easily end up with something along the lined of late April and may 2012. The sun is really ramping up again now and I noticed this morning that in direct sunlight my solar system was producing 20 % more power than it was three weeks ago. I think the worst of the wind is probably out of the way, but in terms of rainfall I suspect some very big totals to come over the next month unless a big change occurs and frankly I'm not seeing where it's coming from :-(

[EML Network]

Agree with this and I've been thinking the same thing to be honest. Low heights and a strong march sun add up to only one thing and that's big shower clouds! We could easily end up with something along the lined of late April and may 2012. The sun is really ramping up again now and I noticed this morning that in direct sunlight my solar system was producing 20 % more power than it was three weeks ago.

I think the worst of the wind is probably out of the way, but in terms of rainfall I suspect some very big totals to come over the next month unless a big change occurs and frankly I'm not seeing where it's coming from :-(

 

 

Dude., you own a whole Solar System ??  

 

In which Galaxy ?..I want one !!

[Dancerwithwings]

GFS is late because of a problems at NOAA.   http://weather.noaa.gov/tgstatus/

[pdiddy]

GFS is late because of a problems at NOAA.   http://weather.noaa.gov/tgstatus/

yep - a bit harsh maybe.  GFS est en retard.

[Dancerwithwings]

What time do you call this!   http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

[Summer Sun]

UKMO showing more lows coming our way later next week which will only add to the flooding problems

 

 

GFS precipitation charts

 

 

Edited February 15, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Mucka]

I'm fed up so I am posting this outrageous ensemble outlier for the sheer hell of it.

If I can't have a winter I want to pretend I am having one.

 

[Purga]

OK the odd coldish fantasy run but that's it.

 

 

 

Let's look forward to winter 2014/15!

[Bobby]

ECM 12z looks like the same old stuff we've seen all winter, deeply unsettled and with plenty of wind and heavy rain. No end in sight.

 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2014 by Bobby

[Ali1977]

Something tells me that we will get one decent 3-5 day cold spell in March. Then summer will kick in early.

In a perfect world anyway!!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

As I pointed out last night, there looks to be no end at present to the disturbed weather. I'm at work but looking at the charts above, it doesn't look good for the flood hit.

[Man With Beard]

ECM 12z looks like the same old stuff we've seen all winter, deeply unsettled and with plenty of wind and heavy rain. No end in sight.

 

 

 

From the perspective of a flood victim, I hate to say it but tonight's runs are like kicking an opponent when he's already down on the canvas at the end of a ten-count. It's a particularly bad blow since over the last few days, there has been this hope that yesterday would be the end of the persistent rains and storms over the UK, and that we might at least get a drier week to allow some of that flooding to subside. The 12Z runs really do end that hope, I fear. After Monday's not insignificant rainfall, we get just two days off before all runs bring further rainfall on Thursday. The UKMO and ECM are really troubling as they look to reinvigorate the stormy pattern we've just been through, this UKMO chart in particular:

ECM has rainfall crossing the country every couple of days from Thursday onwards, and ends very ominously, as Boby has posted above.

 

I imagine we may not see anything with gusts 80mph+ again but the rainfall just isn't letting up. I see from the rainfall statistics thread that February's rainfall record is indeed under threat (halfway there by the 13th, with 15 more days to go). Winter rainfall record is in the bag really. Back to back monthly rainfall records would be unprecedented surely? We can't seem to get through a year without some sort of new record these days!

 

I love cold weather but I'm now way beyond looking for cold, just anything at all to stop the rain, Azores High or Euro High would all be welcome. But we just can't seem to get a pattern change, so unusual.  

Edited February 15, 2014 by rjbw

[Nick F]

As I pointed out last night, there looks to be no end at present to the disturbed weather. I'm at work but looking at the charts above, it doesn't look good for the flood hit.

 

Looking at 12z GFS rainfall accumulations up t+168 (Sat 22nd) suggests totals will be highest across the north and west, i.e. Cornwall, Devon, S and W Wales, northern England and western Scotland - with lower totals towards the SE - due to less heavy rain here and longer drier interudes next week. So some relief for the Thames catchment area anyway.

 

Beyond next weekend, too far off to be certain of ECM's more stormy scenario, though is rather concerning that we may return to that again. I think all will depend on how far south the deep cold pooling over NE Canada and Greenland area sinks, if it does, like ECM, sink further south into the Atlantic than GFS, then the steepening thermal gradient created will no doubt re-ignite a strong jet and spawn another bout of deep lows.

Edited February 15, 2014 by Nick F

[Frank Trough]

it's all a bit depressing tonight. The direction of travel over the last few days has gradually been away from any real end to the unsettled weather and back to something similar to what we've seen for weeks on end.

 

the westerly theme just keeps on giving and it's odds on now that it will see out winter.

 

 

 

With ground water levels so high even a slight moderation in rainfall amounts is going to make precious little difference.

 

I have everything crossed that a change of season will bring a change of luck - be it cold or warm i couldn't care less. Let's just hope it's drier.

[Man With Beard]

Looking at 12z GFS rainfall accumulations up t+168 (Sat 22nd) suggests totals will be highest across the north and west, i.e. Cornwall, Devon, S and W Wales, northern England and western Scotland - with lower totals towards the SE - due to less heavy rain here and longer drier interudes next week. So some relief for the Thames catchment area anyway.

 

Beyond next weekend, too far off to be certain of ECM's more stormy scenario, though is rather concerning that we may return to that again. I think all will depend on how far south the deep cold pooling over NE Canada and Greenland area sinks, if it does, like ECM, sink further south into the Atlantic than GFS, then the steepening thermal gradient created will no doubt re-ignite a strong jet and spawn another bout of deep lows.

As I'm sure you'd agree, the pause on rainfall for the Thames depends on the temporary ridge that GFS shows for next Friday/Saturday

I imagine rainfall totals will be higher for this region if the UKMO T144 came off - the ridge is flatter and held back in the Atlantic as another front/trough swings across the south Friday/Saturday night = yet more rain for the Thames

ECM doesn't have the ridge so close to the UK either, though greater rainfall in the NW - maybe

Edited February 15, 2014 by rjbw