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Paul

Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

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Please carry on with the model discussion here. If your post is more of an emotional reaction to the models (like - "This run is bad" , "This run is a shocker" , "That's it, the cold isn't coming", "This run is amazing!!!!!") please post it into the model banter, moans and ramps thread so we can keep this thread more discussion based. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/ Major Forecasting ModelsGFSECMWFECMWF EPSGEFS EnsemblesUK MetFaxGEMCompare The Big 4

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GFS 00z once again hinting at something drier in the long term UK wide, before that tomorrow and Saturday sees more heavy rain across the UK with this falling as snow over high ground some of the Scottish Ski resorts look set for more significant falls ahead of the half term week.

 

By Sunday and next week it looks like a change will occur with longer drier interludes between rain bands conditions look less stormy as well so probably a change to more normal UK winter weather after the final stormy period tomorrow and Saturday

 

Posted Image

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Posted Image

 

Quite difficult to look beyond this at the moment to be honest.  That is for around 0100 hrs Sat morning, so the storm would be hitting and intensifying during evening Friday rush hour.  I think some travel plans of an early off or day off would be wise for folk to consider.

This system is coming up from well SW and will be laiden with moisture and the SSW/NE movement of this LP may mean that rain will be persistent and heavy for a long period rather than a 2-3 hr rush through.

Coastal areas to get battered...again.  I think I'll have a look at next week after this storm has passed as Old Met Man has a point re pattern altering.

Fairly short post......;-)

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Putting aside the storm risk for Saturday - very good runs on the 12s UKMO & GFS-

 

HP anomalies ( all be it modest) over Svalbard & Southern / SE Greenland-

 

Despite calls for this not to materialise they have become a little more persistent today ( Excluding the ECM) with the 00z GFS, 06z GFS & now the 12 all sitting with the same anomalies- also joined by the UKMO-

 

Key to it all is the deep cold wedged into Central Europe at around 168 ... can it get past the north sea at 192...

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021312/UN144-21.GIF?13-17

 

S

Edited by Steve Murr

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12z GFS looking much more realistic and in line with the ensembles!

The unsettled theme continues overall though not as extreme as lately probably.

Strong gales across the S Coast tomorrow

 

Posted Image

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For coldies the GFS 12Z in FI is poor in relaton to what the 00z and 06z offered. Gone is the scandi high and easterlies and it is back to flat and zonal with occasional PM air and snow on hills.  Steve M always used to say that 12Z was the best of a bad bunch from the GFS and to ignore the 06Z.  

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Yes the GFS op back on track with a zonal flow from start to finish: post-14819-0-02336600-1392311519_thumb.p post-14819-0-08901700-1392311531_thumb.p

 

Same with GEM: post-14819-0-64886200-1392311566_thumb.p post-14819-0-44634900-1392311576_thumb.p

 

Should get a full house tonight.

 

So despite the threat of storms relaxing there is no end to fronts crossing the country and further heavy rainfall totals, right into March and probably further on.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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GFS 12z precipitation to March 1st

 

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Temperature wise over the next 8 days it looks like temperatures will be above normal for all but Northern Ireland, most of Scotland and possibly parts of Northumberland

 

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Normal temps left, expected temps right

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Across the pond in the USA and temperatures look like rising here as well with the temperature gap between the north and south closer which should help to slow the jet stream down slightly as such the lows which do come our way shouldn't be as bad as we've had them so far this winter

 

Posted Image

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For coldies the GFS 12Z in FI is poor in relaton to what the 00z and 06z offered. Gone is the scandi high and easterlies and it is back to flat and zonal with occasional PM air and snow on hills.  Steve M always used to say that 12Z was the best of a bad bunch from the GFS and to ignore the 06Z.  

 

 

The reason why the 06z was not going to be repeated, a massive outlier for temps:

 

post-14819-0-37230000-1392312567_thumb.g  post-14819-0-48940700-1392312590_thumb.g

 

Similar to the 0z. The mean was in keeping with previous runs.

 

At T216 on the GEFS 12z 19 members continue with the Atlantic flow, the others:

 

post-14819-0-23868600-1392312924_thumb.p post-14819-0-87199900-1392312932_thumb.p post-14819-0-47989800-1392312945_thumb.p

 

Very unlikely now that the lull from early next week will allow a more blocked pattern before month's end.

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Less severe? Looks more like a different world compared to what we have endured so far this winter. Posted Image

There's hardly a breadth of wind to be seen and not much in the way of precipitation it would seem on those two charts albeit it a tad chilly.

UKMO showing the start of next week to be less severe than of late

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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12z GFS looking much more realistic and in line with the ensembles!

The unsettled theme continues overall though not as extreme as lately probably.

Strong gales across the S Coast tomorrow

 

Posted Image

Is that for tomorrow bobby?

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P20 would be epic cold, a proper beast

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P20 would be epic cold, a proper beast

 

alas, the other 20 members are not. at least the ecm extended ens tend to give us a 10% chance of winter.

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Consistency from the ECM again, wanting this ridge to build in during the middle of next week

Posted Image

 

3 runs on the spin now.

Then flattens the pattern, going to be more unsettled than the previous run

Edited by Captain shortwave

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 So despite the threat of storms relaxing there is no end to fronts crossing the country and further heavy rainfall totals, right into March and probably further on.

I mean come on, really? That is well outside the scope of reliability and nothing you've referred to in your post supports this extremely bold claim. Otherwise a reasonable post, why spoil good work with absolute nonsense?

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I mean come on, really? That is well outside the scope of reliability and nothing you've referred to in your post supports this extremely bold claim. Otherwise a reasonable post, why spoil good work with absolute nonsense?

Unfortunately he uses 384 charts and develops a forecast of his own that's a dead cert , then says other things to get a reaction , I don't even look at it to be honest I'm use to it by now .ECM running out now , and yes it does it appear to be going the same route as the 0z , can we reall go the whole winter without a small cold spell?

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This model thread will probably last till next Winter!

The only change I can see in the 12z is that it will be less wet and windy but still unsettled.

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Runs tonight in general are a huge disappointment not just for cold but for hopes of a respite from the floods. Sure, we get a day or two of "dry" next week, but this isn't the kind of chart you want to see if you are under flood water, rain approaching quite soon for most (maybe the SE gets away with it a bit more but that would be far from certain) - and there's a suspicious runner low again in the Atlantic...

Posted Image

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I'm looking for something to throw in.............anyone got a towel. Lols.

 

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A weak ridge of high pressure possible for the south on Wednesday a rare thing so far this winter

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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