South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 13/02/14

[Tamara]

I particularly hate windstorms that happen at night, when I have no idea what the various noises outside are or whether I should be worried about them.... looks like another night with no sleep for me and the cats!

Yes me too ! Shadow my cat is totally horizontal it seems about severe weather/ windstorms. He looks at me jumping at every noise outside as if to say  'meh, calm down its only the weather'

[lassie23]

Thanks knightrider, St jude was the most powerful storm i can remember since 1987, and the strongest winds were at around 7am which was a nightmare for travellers.

[john pike]

tonight

 

easy one

 

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

cold and frosty

 

there is a slim chance we may some wintry showers overnight but will be very patchy and wouldnt

 

stay up all night for it

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow

 

happy valentines day

 

 

morning a breezy but not strong south to south west wind

 

rain

 

a dry and chilly start

 

 

 scrapers needed in the morning

 

by lunchtime

 

rain

 

just after lunch expect rain to move across us all and will be heavy

 

temps

 

will warm up when the rain arrives

 

around 8-10 degrees

 

wind not overstrong yet

 

breezy thats it for the moment

 

around 7pm

 

rain

 

this is where the very heavy rain is likely to be

 

temps

 

reckon somewhere around 10 degrees

 

also note unstable air back in the equation and some potential thunderstorms in the mix

 

jet now

 

will also ramp up the potential re heavy downpours and storms (squall fronts)

 

wind

 

gusting around 40-50 mph

 

this is not including squall fronts in these winds

 

friday night

 

 

towards midnight

 

winds increase on a very strong south westerly

 

jet

 

not helpful as that will not help here

 

midnight to around 7-9 am

 

winds gusting

 

south coast potential 70-80 mph

 

al other regions 40-60 mph  locally possible 70 mph

 

rainfall

 

still fairly heavy but easing early morning

 

at 7am

 

most regions should start to dry out by rush hour

 

temps not important

 

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saturday

 

winds still gusty around 40-50 mph west to north west and will feel cold

 

jet

 

 

finally dropping more south

 

rain

 

barring the odd pm shower it should remain mainly dry

 

temps

 

will be cold again

 

6-8 degrees

 

temps dropping quickly at night fall

 

will do saturday night later

 

 

1 point to remember

 

we have a full moon on friday night as well

 

high tides added to this storm will really not help this situation

 

anyway back soon

 

john

Edited February 13, 2014 by john pike

[knightrider]

Winds of 108mph, structural damage, flying debris, massive depression, icy blasts, communication difficulties, untold misery and suffering...

(And that's just in the MAD thread ! )

But we do have something like this to (not) look forward to ....

image.jpg

Oh gosh that looks bad, where did you get that from and how accurate a source of information is it?  Looks like we are in the area for 65mph+ Severe Gales

[knightrider]

Thanks knightrider, St jude was the most powerful storm i can remember since 1987, and the strongest winds were at around 7am which was a nightmare for travellers.

That certainly wasn't my experience of it, a half an hour spell of 60mph gusts a few trees and fences down that's all we got here from St Jude definitely not the biggest since 87 infact nowhere near it the Burn's Day Storm and October storms in 2000 and 02 where much much worse!

[Jason T]

Evening all.....Bloody dire Winter this ONE. Well in fact it never arrived. For those in the thread experiencing the floods, I sincerely hope that light at the end of the tunnel approaches pretty quick for you. The weather can be our friend or our worst enemy,It really has no mercy at all for anyone...The weird thing is we all love it and what it can create,Even though it has affected us in one way or another. 

[lassie23]

The atlantic is suppose to wake up in March as the temp gradients increase, spring warmth meeting late winter cold etc, if that happens, it will be a continuation of the weather we have been having all winter

[Long haul to mild]

That certainly wasn't my experience of it, a half an hour spell of 60mph gusts a few trees and fences down that's all we got here from St Jude definitely not the biggest since 87 infact nowhere near it the Burn's Day Storm and October storms in 2000 and 02 where much much worse!

St Jude was quite selective with who it hit, but it was easily the worst storm here since 87 and I am not expecting anything as bad during tomorrow and Saturday. Expected top gusts of just under 60mph here on Saturday; still unpleasant but nothing like the 75mph we got during St Jude.

[Snowangel-MK]

Oh gosh that looks bad, where did you get that from and how accurate a source of information is it?  Looks like we are in the area for 65mph+ Severe Gales

It's from another weather site that I follow on Facebook - it's usually fairly accurate !

[Iceni]

Looks like from about midnight to 6am most likely around 3am being the absolute peak.

 

I can categorically promise you it won't be as bad as 1987, I say that whilst holding my breath lol. If the winds get as strong as they did in North Wales yesterday then it'll be comparable but (SO FAR) the forecasts aren't going for it be quite that extreme more like 70mph so bad yes but not 100mph, however there's still time for the warnings to be upgraded if the system intensifies anymore between now and making landfall, just like for yesterdays storm the Red warnings where only issued a few hours before the hurricane-force winds hit!

 

 

Fair enough, but with the caveat that in '87 we hadn't had months of constant rain (although the trees were still in leaf).

 

I've noticed a couple of huge multi-trunk willows tipping over during the past couple of days - the only reason they haven't crashed is the other trees are holding them up. We already have some of the most populous M4 corridor flooding and there's only so much the emergency services can do...

 

I have a nasty feeling that tomorrow night might just be the straw which breaks the camel's back.

Edited February 13, 2014 by Iceni

[lassie23]

St Jude was quite selective with who it hit, but it was easily the worst storm here since 87 and I am not expecting anything as bad during tomorrow and Saturday. Expected top gusts of just under 60mph here on Saturday; still unpleasant but nothing like the 75mph we got during St Jude.

my experience of st jude too

[knightrider]

St Jude was quite selective with who it hit, but it was easily the worst storm here since 87 and I am not expecting anything as bad during tomorrow and Saturday. Expected top gusts of just under 60mph here on Saturday; still unpleasant but nothing like the 75mph we got during St Jude.

You had 75mph wow that's bad certainly the biggest in about 10 years or so if that hit here but highest gusts we got weren't even 60mph, in the October 02 storm we had frequent 70-80mph gusts in October 2000 we had 85-90mph gusts and in 1987 gusts of 90-100mph higher on coasts!

 

Regarding tomorrow nights storm the local BBC London TV forecast just now stated 50-60mph north of London with 70mph possible south of Greater London so there's no doubt its going to be rough but probably not a lot worse then it was yesterday afternoon here as I'm slightly north-east of London, unless the Thames estuary acts as a wind funnel.

[bobbydog]

I particularly hate windstorms that happen at night, when I have no idea what the various noises outside are or whether I should be worried about them.... looks like another night with no sleep for me and the cats!

 

don't worry about the noises you hear when its wet and windy outside,

 

it's probably nothing.......

 

Edited February 13, 2014 by bobbydog

[lassie23]

knight rider, just read about October 2000 storm, sounded like it caused damage throughout London too.

[Keraunic]

Winds of 108mph, structural damage, flying debris, massive depression, icy blasts, communication difficulties, untold misery and suffering...

(And that's just in the MAD thread ! )

But we do have something like this to (not) look forward to ....

image.jpg

What time will the strongest winds be over the London area? Would like to avoid being outdoors as nearly got hit by an advertising board back in October. It came at me so fast,  I didn't even get a chance to see what it was advertising.

Stop it.....I'm having hysterics here. My neice thinks I've gone barmy. Daft beggars.

[knightrider]

knight rider, just read about October 2000 storm, sounded like it caused damage throughout London too.

People have short memories that's all I can say, I was only just turned 14 (it was the night after my birthday) and I can remember it like yesterday almost it was so terrifying. Woke up about 2am and my double glazed bedroom windows where rumbling like they where about to come through the rain was lashing against it also and the noise from the wind was nearly a deafening roar, I can visibly remember the 40'ft tall tree swaying right over in 1 direction and snapping back up in the other it was without a doubt the most terrifying storm I've experienced and made St Jude look like a late summer breeze. It's the only time I woke up and thought have I landed in a Florida hurricane!

[fluid dynamic]

 

 

hi guys

 

hope your well

 

give me a bit of time with this and be back soon

 

have a look for the moment and see what you think of these

 

I don't like those JP. Got any others ?

[lassie23]

kera off topic but your cat is cute awwwwwwwwww looks exactly like my cat. She will be shut indoors tonight.

[Long haul to mild]

You had 75mph wow that's bad certainly the biggest in about 10 years or so if that hit here but highest gusts we got weren't even 60mph, in the October 02 storm we had frequent 70-80mph gusts in October 2000 we had 85-90mph gusts and in 1987 gusts of 90-100mph higher on coasts!

 

Regarding tomorrow nights storm the local BBC London TV forecast just now stated 50-60mph north of London with 70mph possible south of Greater London so there's no doubt its going to be rough but probably not a lot worse then it was yesterday afternoon here as I'm slightly north-east of London, unless the Thames estuary acts as a wind funnel.

 

Think we were right in the path of a "sting jet" here during St Jude, which caused two hours of chaos (just ask my poor fence and most of the local trees), but it clearly wasn't the same for everyone.

 

South Coast looks like the place for the strongest gusts tomorrow/Sat, but anywhere in the SE quadrant will have a pretty wild night by the sounds of it! At least the wind battered areas from yesterday will be largely spared this time.

[john pike]

hi fd

 

no sorry mate

 

one thing i have noticed is this

 

ukmo at 144

 

 

gfs at 144

 

ecm at 144

 

 

all similar in their own way

 

one big difference is the strength of the low in the atlantic

 

now if ukmo is right it looks to me like the atlantic is starting to run out of steam

 

now if the fax chart show that low a lot weaker tomorrow at 120 i would be happier

 

anyway i think now people can see why fi is such a short timespan at present

[Summer of 76]

Sky's perspective on things for the coming week?

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1210968/weather-uk-to-be-hit-by-storms-in-next-week

[blackprince]

On a lighter note....drove into work tonight with the sun visor down and shades on!!!! not done that since early October...Must of looked stupid to the drivers coming the other way with headlights on lol. The sun was so bright.!!!!

[lassie23]

I wonder if this winter is a one off, or will the pattern repeat itself next winter.

[EJA]

How do I find the storm thread please? I've tried and can't seem to see it? Thanks

[bobbydog]

How do I find the storm thread please? I've tried and can't seem to see it? Thanks

 

it blew away......

 

not really, here it is- http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79420-severe-atlantic-storms-february-2014/page-18#entry2929925