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Angelici Magiovinium

South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 13/02/14

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What a nice sunny,dry day here in colchester:)

 

Yes, it'd be nice if it was followed by a few more! :lol:

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I think tomorrow night could be one of our windiest periods this winter up in Herts Lloyd.

yes mate its looking a bit wild and could go on for a while. Back in Nov when we had the mad half hour, things were flying and my garden gate ripped off (still lying on the floor (Flipping useless landlord)) lord knows what a lengthy spell like that will produce...exciting....yes, but slightly worried....

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Whilst I hope the forthcoming storm doesn't impact too heavily on the areas already flooded, let's not forget those who have lost their homes to coastal erosion. I'm wondering how bad the isle of Wight might look now as that's been disappearing steadily since as far back as I can recall!!

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Link to BBC article; John Hammond quotes that tomorrow's storm has the potential to be just as severe if not more severe then yesterday's.Posted Image

Here's a link to the BBC News article on the clear up from yesterday's storm before tomorrow's arrives, John Hammond hints that tomorrow night into Saturday could be equally as bad if not more intense then yesterdays storm!  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26176582 <  I previously posted this in the Severe winter storms thread.

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A met officer on sky was saying that he had severe fears for devon and cornwall tomorrow

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Peter Gibbs BBC lunchtime forecast going for 70mph inland gusts over SE England with potentially more up channel coasts it's looking more and more nasty with every forecast and the models appear to be upgrading with every run not sticking or downgrading!

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Could I just echo others comments and thanks to Tamara for her reasoned and very detailed posts. I am by no means able to decipher charts accurately, and Tamara is extremely kind to offer her thoughts and insights to enable people like myself to learn.

The MET office map is very clear that whilst we will all have another 24 hour plus period of intense gusts of wind, the worst will be along the south coast and Tamara has kindly given us the evidence of this on the charts in her post.The rainfall totals will be of great concern for the already over-saturated south east.

The area most at risk from the storm tomorrow seems to be the poor south west again, and I hope people heed the warnings and stay away from the coast.

By the way, bright sunshine and blue skies here at the moment.

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After a quieter day today weather wise, tomorrow sees another weather system crossing the UK bringing further heavy rain and very strong winds, leading to a number of weather warnings being put in place. The image below shows the latest warnings issued.

post-10773-0-57649700-1392308484_thumb.j

Keep up to date with the latest weather warnings at http://bit.ly/1aRItgD

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Could I just echo others comments and thanks to Tamara for her reasoned and very detailed posts. I am by no means able to decipher charts accurately, and Tamara is extremely kind to offer her thoughts and insights to enable people like myself to learn.The MET office map is very clear that whilst we will all have another 24 hour plus period of intense gusts of wind, the worst will be along the south coast and Tamara has kindly given us the evidence of this on the charts in her post.The rainfall totals will be of great concern for the already over-saturated south east.The area most at risk from the storm tomorrow seems to be the poor south west again, and I hope people heed the warnings and stay away from the coast.By the way, bright sunshine and blue skies here at the moment.

BBC London forecast at lunchtime stated heavy rain warnings from midday tomorrow right through until midday Saturday with wind warnings in place for the overnight into Saturday morning period with inland gusts of 60-70mph so more then likely to see something of 80mph+ on the channel coast as the Amber warnings indicate, Peter Gibbs in the national forecast also said inland areas over SE could have a spell of 70mph gusts overnight.

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Could I just echo others comments and thanks to Tamara for her reasoned and very detailed posts. I am by no means able to decipher charts accurately, and Tamara is extremely kind to offer her thoughts and insights to enable people like myself to learn.

The MET office map is very clear that whilst we will all have another 24 hour plus period of intense gusts of wind, the worst will be along the south coast and Tamara has kindly given us the evidence of this on the charts in her post.The rainfall totals will be of great concern for the already over-saturated south east.

The area most at risk from the storm tomorrow seems to be the poor south west again, and I hope people heed the warnings and stay away from the coast.

By the way, bright sunshine and blue skies here at the moment.

Thanks for your comments (and everyone else too) - its much appreciated. We all have something to contribute in different ways on herePosted Image

 

A rainfall estimate guide is available here from the short term 48 hr high resolution model Euro 4 (which has replaced the NAE). This is only a guide and not meant to be taken literally as indicated, but latest suggested rainfall accumulations up to Saturday morning are here

 

Posted Image.

 

These will be updated in due course when the afternoon data arrives

Edited by Tamara תָּמָר
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Thanks for your comments (and everyone else too) - its much appreciated. We all have something to contribute in different ways on herePosted Image

 

A rainfall estimate guide is available here from the short term 48 hr high resolution model Euro 4 (which has replaced the NAE). This is only a guide and not meant to be taken literally as indicated, but latest suggested rainfall accumulations up to Saturday morning are here

 

Posted Image.

 

These will be updated in due course when the afternoon data arrives

Looks atrocious rain wise, I'm off out to build an Ark.

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I recommend NetWeather to everyone I meet — especially as out in the sticks, most of my friends and acquaintances rely on what's happening weather-wise.

 

It's quite worrying the number of people who are completely unaware of tomorrow night's storm — someone suggested meeting up in a Cambridge pub (which is 25 miles away) on Friday evening — we said, no can do, the wind would catch us travelling home again. He said "What wind?"

Edited by Iceni
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Am a bit concerned that I live in Eastbourne, is it really going to be that bad?

 

I sometimes look at the shipping forecast / inshore water forecast, as this can give an idea too.

 

Very big swells on Saturday morning, on the South Coast, especially west of Selsey Bill. :)

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/inshore_forecast.html#All

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That's strange you should say that as a couple of people I have spoken to today had exactly the same attitude.... perhaps everyone has storm fatigue? (Not surprising if that's the case!)I would like to reiterate the comments about Tamara and her truly excellent posts over Winter 2013/2014 - I'm sure she is too much of a lady in every way to be affected by the testosterone-fuelled rutting which can go on in the MOD - I really appreciate the time she takes to explain all her reasoning. And of course she has been right in her interpretation - which is doubtless why some are feeling particularly nettled...

To be quite honest this site is a much needed public alert service... But so many of you are right. A lot of people don't follow the weather, or news for that matter.. They then say "wind what wind?" as their garden shed or trampoline takes off into the next village. Just to scrape within the rules... It's clear at the moment here!!! Edited by Sidsnake
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I'm going to follow my own advice and make sure I've got all the oil or paraffin lamps functioning tomorrow — power cuts are quite likely after sodden tree roots take 6 hours' battering from 60mph winds. They just uproot.

 

Hoovering and washing/drying clothes this afternoon, evening and tomorrow too - anything you need electricity for basically will be done in advance ready for the storm.

Edited by Iceni
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Afternoon all

 

Hope you are all fit and well on this rather bright and sunny day, nice to see it again even if the visit is a short one, like others I am not looking forward to this next storm and for many it is the last thing they need right now, anyone know where the Atlantic 'off' switch is?

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A recent post in the feb storms thread has a model image which demonstrates how far inland the 60/70mph gusts go tomorrow night.

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I'm going to follow my own advice and make sure I've got all the oil or paraffin lamps functioning tomorrow — power cuts are quite likely after sodden tree roots take 6 hours' battering from 60mph winds. They just uproot.

i've had torches and batteries at the ready all winter.
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