South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 13/02/14

[JennyJane1]

I guess its a good thing that its Friday night, fewer school and work runs in the morning if the damage is going to be bad.

[knightrider]

Just checked the NMM-6, it looks like we have at least a good 12 hours of 60mph+ winds, 14-15 hours in my location. 

Your not too far from me, things certainly looking wild later on tonight I think from midnight through to about 6 to 9am tomorrow morning will be the peak!

[Reefseeker]

My retrievers are too daft not to want to go out. Walkies is their top priority (even over food, distinguishing them from labs) and nothing will deter them. High winds make them briefly sniff the air before getting stupidly excited again. Managed to go out into the woods with them at 7.30 this morning before the heavens opened, luckily. Just the mud and debris they bring into the house which drives Mrs stun round the twist.

 

Our little french bulldog will initially resist, doing the nose sniffing the air type of thing, when he realises it's tipping down, but then decides 'ah well' and expects the full walk thereafter with nothing deterring him from this intention. I now have a completely full length wax coat that my father used to walk his dog with (possibly the uncoolest dog walking outfit known to person-kind), so it's just the wet face, hands and feet that I have to worry about. The dog on the other hand comes back totally drenched, and similarly to you, Mr Reefseeker is none too amused at the mud and slobber from shaking vigorously that goes everywhere.

[Tamara]

But it would also be foolish to underestimate it.

 

 

Using official guidelines from the METO and other reliable sources is not underestimating anything - it is being realistic based on the best information available. What need to try and seek out another interpretation to make more of it?

 

Surrey - the information from the computers is assessed by professional people, not robots. I would trust this method, and those assessing the data more than standing in the garden and waving tea leaves in the wind

Edited February 14, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[JennyJane1]

omg i must stop laughing at sky news.

Reporter talks about a new flatpack flood barrier and how it will stop flooding, how its come from Sweden, interviews the expert on it, who says "it might not work because the water is too high".

Yeah............not the positive interview you were after, was it?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Using official guidelines from the METO and other reliable sources is not underestimating anything - it is being realistic based on the best information available. What need to try and seek out another interpretation to make more of it?

 

In argument Tamara, and I am not saying I don't agree with you, but we are letting computers dictate to us the weather? Surely that has some sense of "lack of trust". As we all know how technology goes. Plus it's the weather.. It could be sunny in 10 minutes  

[saint]

Every online source for me is putting gusts higher than they were, not everyone is seeing a lowering in gusts!

[kate1]

The heaviest rain of the winter here - just got back from Bluewater to find water flooding into the basement... Have sent husband outside to see if there is a blocked drain or whether it's just the drain can't cope with the sheer volume of water. What a romantic Valentine's Day we're having!

[saint]

Local roads are flooding again already.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

On Sat24, has anyone seen the rate of knots that trail of cloud towards Portugal and Madeira is travelling towards us at :O !! 

[knightrider]

In argument Tamara, and I am not saying I don't agree with you, but we are letting computers dictate to us the weather? Surely that has some sense of "lack of trust". As we all know how technology goes. Plus it's the weather.. It could be sunny in 10 minutes  

And as much as the forecasts are supposed to be more accurate and timely now I actually think since they introduced the radar image TV forecasts on BBC back in about 2005 that the Mets forecasts have been more sketchy in their detail and seem to take longer to come to their conclusions, example being I remember when they still used weather symbols back when we had the October 2000 and 2002 storms they where forecast both accurately (in terms of their strength/intensity) and on time about 5 or 6 days before they hit, now it seems to me that their still piecing together information within 24 hours sometimes less then 12 hours before impending storms!

[Lauren]

I take my previous comment back. It is torrential rain here atm.

[abruzzi spur]

Mr Reefseeker is none too amused at the mud and slobber from shaking vigorously that goes everywhere.

In all fairness though, Reef, I'd be pretty annoyed if my wife behaved like that......!

[Steve C]

My opinion still, is that it'll be a very windy night for sure, but unless a person has property damaged etc., one that'll be quickly filed away to memory

 

To me, the system has a large, but not particularly intense windfield, meaning it'll be very windy for loads of people, but not exceptional. I think there will be very large waves on the South Coast, but it might be that rainfall ends up being the bigger issue.

 

We can only wait and see.

Edited February 14, 2014 by Steve C

[alexisj9]

On Sat24, has anyone seen the rate of knots that trail of cloud towards Portugal and Madeira is travelling towards us at !! 

Can you link it as I can't find the right bit that tells you the knots

[Biggin]

Might have to take pre and post storm pictures of my fence. Its a bit battered atm but might not be expecting a full on Southerly SWterly  Wind was from a better kinder direction last couple of storms. 

[alexisj9]

Big gust here just now, think the wind is picking up may be.

[PiggiePalace]

Afternoon everyone

 

Went to vets in Horsham around 11am - was tipping it down and M23 already suffering from spray and surface water in the usual spots with warning signs for 50mph
Picking up hay for the piggies in Crawley the raindrops were very big and cold .....and I swear there was some snow or sleet in it (car thermometer showing 4degC).

 

Now back home with weekend shopping and can confirm we too have rice paddies in the garden and a river in the road. Stream is coping admirably atm and no warnings from EA ......yet!
Going to visit neighbours shortly and ask them to put their bins in a safe place as they are still left out on the road from wednesday! Then it's house and piggie cleaning plus another night on the sofa!

 

(The long journey I made yesterday was postponed from wednesday - to get 40small furries from a huge uplift in Durham into safe rescue spaces across the midlands/Wales and south west before the weather set in again - although not all of them made it to rescue....one just happened to "hide in my pocket" - Valentine is the latest addition ot Piggie Palace)

 

I can;t tell you how invaluable Netweather has been  in helping us plan the logistics and timings given the miles and geography we are having to cover to transport these small furries safely - a big thank you to everyone!
xxx

[Reefseeker]

In all fairness though, Reef, I'd be pretty annoyed if my wife behaved like that......!

 

Thank goodness I am in my own office now and no longer in open plan where my laughing out loud to your posts got me some funny looks (but at least I wasn't slobbering!).

 

We too had hoped to be on the south coast tonight, but teenage son rather put an end to that also, so we, much as yourselves, are making the journey tomorrow. Let's hope the storm doesn't leave too much destruction in its wake.

[Tilly]

Using official guidelines from the METO and other reliable sources is not underestimating anything - it is being realistic based on the best information available. What need to try and seek out another interpretation to make more of it?

 

Surrey - the information from the computers is assessed by professional people, not robots. I would trust this method, and those assessing the data more than standing in the garden and waving tea leaves in the wind

 

I *think* everyones apprehension is focused around how late Wednesdays red warnings came. It seemed Meto didnt realise or think things would be that bad and didnt issue the red warning until it was on their doorstep. I in no way think this will be on that scale and dont imagine for a minute we'll have red warnings for todays. I think (Correct me if I'm wrong) but Wednesdays storm was still a developing low as opposed to this one which is fully matured so that made it harder to predict? I'm just saying I can see why people are trying to read between the lines. I think we can all just safetly assume its not a good idea to be going out tonight

[stainesbloke]

Absolutely chucking it down here for the last hour or so, rain less intense before that. All I can hear for the third day running are sirens and helicopters lol, bit too apocalyptic for comfort! River levels were going down a little but this rain looks to change that, experts saying Sunday could be bad for flooding here again. Saw the BBC forecaster earlier on tv saying 70mph gusts overnight for the London area. I'd be quite excited if it wasn't for all the other destruction going on....any sign of some nice high pressure in the models?! Stay safe and dry everyone

[abruzzi spur]

Thank goodness I am in my own office now and no longer in open plan where my laughing out loud to your posts got me some funny looks (but at least I wasn't slobbering!). We too had hoped to be on the south coast tonight, but teenage son rather put an end to that also, so we, much as yourselves, are making the journey tomorrow. Let's hope the storm doesn't leave too much destruction in its wake.

Indeed - have a safe journey.....

[Steve C]

It could be similar to 23rd December, in that it'll last for ages too.

[PiggiePalace]

I spoke to soon!

 

EA have just rung - the rain gauge warning at Weir Wood has gone off... meaning over 10mm in <2hrs has fallen with more heavy intense stuff to come between now and 5.30 tonight.

The stream has just been put on flood warning. 

 

Judging from the fact it's still raining heavily here with more to come, I anticipate it could be out of bank by about 16.00 unless we get some respite between bursts....hopefully though it won;t be enough to seriously challenge the properties.Off to move carxxx

[Floatylight]

thrashing it down in colchester