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Looks like tomorrow evening and Saturday early morning for the winds to reach me, if its only what we had yesterday, I'll be glad as it was nothing terrible.But I can imagine even just a few miles an hour more than we had yesterday would most likely be damaging.

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Satellite Imagery courtesy of EUMETSAT taken @ 21:45 on the evening of Thu 13 Feb prior to the storm making landfall across much of England & Wales. Current approximate central pressure is 965mb. Although the actual intensity phasing of the storm is beginning to reach its peak and it will begin to occlude whilst making its way across the United Kingdom, current air pressure readings across the country 24 hours before this 960mb storm is due to hit are approx 995-1000mb. That means that by the time the storm hits in 24 hours, the pressure would of dropped like a stone from 995-1000mb to 960mb approx, that's 35/40mb/24hr pressure drop. This sudden pressure drop is known as explosive, and this is just one of the reasons why we can expect some stormy weather during Friday Evening into Saturday Morning.

post-10773-0-74332200-1392332336_thumb.j

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this image of an extratropical cyclone bearing down on the United Kingdom on February 12, 2014. Mature extratropical cyclones often feature comma-shaped cloud patterns that are the product of “conveyor belt†circulation. While heavy precipitation is often present near the low-pressure head of the comma, a slot of dry air is generally present to the west of the tail. Read more details at

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=83127&src=fb

post-10773-0-78288400-1392332386_thumb.j

HIGH RISK FCST ISSUED FOR FRIDAY - SEVERE WINDSTORM HEADING FOR UNITED KINGDOM / NORTHERN FRANCE

A deep trough centered over NE Europe and E Atlantic with a strong depression is entering the British Isles from the southwest. This will enhance severe wind / heavy rain threat for the region on Friday.

*** A significant deep cyclone / windstorm is forecast to take place on Friday, bringing extreme damaging winds across the large part of western Europe, especially over S UK, English Channel and NW France. ***

A HIGH risk has been issued for S UK, English Channel, extreme N-NW France and towards the open waters of the eastern Atlantic with threat for extremely severe and potentially damaging both convective and non-convective severe winds, tornadoes and heavy excessive rainfall. Conditions are supporting potential for some severe storms as well, given the very strong forcing, a few hundreds J/kg of instability and extreme shear overlaping over the region. Some tornadoes could be strong. Areas included in the HIGH risk will be exposed to a very dangerous weather situation as extremely severe wind gusts well in excess of 140-150 km/h are very likely to occur, supporting high waves up to 15 metres as well.

post-10773-0-25394800-1392332427_thumb.j

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Wow some of these posts are making me very nervous about tomorrow - saw some friends this evening who seemed to be totally unconcerned and both the Met and BBC web sites seem to be underlying what I have been telling people. What sort of wind speeds are we expecting in the Croydon area does anybody know and how does this compare to yesterday ?

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Satellite Imagery courtesy of EUMETSAT taken @ 21:45 on the evening of Thu 13 Feb prior to the storm making landfall across much of England & Wales. Current approximate central pressure is 965mb. Although the actual intensity phasing of the storm is beginning to reach its peak and it will begin to occlude whilst making its way across the United Kingdom, current air pressure readings across the country 24 hours before this 960mb storm is due to hit are approx 995-1000mb. That means that by the time the storm hits in 24 hours, the pressure would of dropped like a stone from 995-1000mb to 960mb approx, that's 35/40mb/24hr pressure drop. This sudden pressure drop is known as explosive, and this is just one of the reasons why we can expect some stormy weather during Friday Evening into Saturday Morning.

Posted Imageimage.jpg

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this image of an extratropical cyclone bearing down on the United Kingdom on February 12, 2014. Mature extratropical cyclones often feature comma-shaped cloud patterns that are the product of “conveyor belt†circulation. While heavy precipitation is often present near the low-pressure head of the comma, a slot of dry air is generally present to the west of the tail. Read more details at

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=83127&src=fb

Posted Imageimage.jpg

HIGH RISK FCST ISSUED FOR FRIDAY - SEVERE WINDSTORM HEADING FOR UNITED KINGDOM / NORTHERN FRANCE

A deep trough centered over NE Europe and E Atlantic with a strong depression is entering the British Isles from the southwest. This will enhance severe wind / heavy rain threat for the region on Friday.

*** A significant deep cyclone / windstorm is forecast to take place on Friday, bringing extreme damaging winds across the large part of western Europe, especially over S UK, English Channel and NW France. ***

A HIGH risk has been issued for S UK, English Channel, extreme N-NW France and towards the open waters of the eastern Atlantic with threat for extremely severe and potentially damaging both convective and non-convective severe winds, tornadoes and heavy excessive rainfall. Conditions are supporting potential for some severe storms as well, given the very strong forcing, a few hundreds J/kg of instability and extreme shear overlaping over the region. Some tornadoes could be strong. Areas included in the HIGH risk will be exposed to a very dangerous weather situation as extremely severe wind gusts well in excess of 140-150 km/h are very likely to occur, supporting high waves up to 15 metres as well.

Posted Imageimage.jpg

The rest of the weekend however will be mostly fine with only scattered Tornadic mesocyclones and derecho episodes and an early sun screen factor advisory of 0.5 to 1 (for fairest skins) is advised in the brighter interludesPosted Image

 

Honestly, I don't know! ...Well we DO know what is expected later tomorrow/Saturday and it is going to be wild and match comparison with some of the storms we have seen this winter, and that is bad enough on top of the flooding etc - but some of these forecasts are written by directors of disaster movies with very overactive imaginationsPosted Image Posted Image

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Well having arrived home late, after being kept on the phone for 40 minutes by a female customer of ours, crikey you ladies love to gamble don't you, client confidentiality forbids me to mention who though Posted Image, I've just finished trawling through the MOD/REG threads. It's certainly been an interesting afternoon for a certain Lady T! 

All joking aside Tams, I know how much effort you've put into your thoughts for this Winter, from way back in the Autumn and then had the patience and writing skills to be able to communicate those thoughts to members of the forum, in such a well balanced and easy to understand manner.

I agree Kate, the crazy posturing that some employ in the Model Thread puts a lot of members off from posting in there but full credit to Tams for holding her line today. I thought the response from a certain member was staggeringly arrogant and you only have to look at the number likes against the respective posts, to see what most members think.

 

Comunque Tamarina, basta mettere la spunta nel post, molte grazie cara!

 

Ciao,

Tomasino.

Agree with all thats been said here,it beggars belief that mod thread sometimes.Overall i find Net weather well moderated,but i have to say there is a huge bias in the way members are treeted in there for either 'overstepping the mark' or going off topic.There is clearly one rule for the so called 'big hitters' and another for others.Proof? Well its just something ive continualy witnessed in there since 2005 and occasionaly suffered from myself.
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hi guys

 

thankyou and sorry

 

went into a sad mode there

 

anyway back to the weather

 

heres the fax for 6pm tomorrow

 

Posted Image

 

and the 12 midnight one

 

Posted Image

 

you can see how tight them isobars are to the south and south east of the low

 

one thing that looks concerning is how slow that is moving

 

unless of course it is moving through earlier than predicted

 

anyway not much else we can do now but watch

 

 

be back soon with the later fax charts

 

best regards all

 

john

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Looking at met office map for tomorrow looks like I'm not quite in amber although this may upgrade tomorrow . Think my neck of the woods has been very fortunate compared to others .

Thank you weather experts for your informative posts I always check on here before anywhere else as always been spot on

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Satellite Imagery courtesy of EUMETSAT taken @ 21:45 on the evening of Thu 13 Feb prior to the storm making landfall across much of England & Wales. Current approximate central pressure is 965mb. Although the actual intensity phasing of the storm is beginning to reach its peak and it will begin to occlude whilst making its way across the United Kingdom, current air pressure readings across the country 24 hours before this 960mb storm is due to hit are approx 995-1000mb. That means that by the time the storm hits in 24 hours, the pressure would of dropped like a stone from 995-1000mb to 960mb approx, that's 35/40mb/24hr pressure drop. This sudden pressure drop is known as explosive, and this is just one of the reasons why we can expect some stormy weather during Friday Evening into Saturday Morning.

Posted Imageimage.jpg

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this image of an extratropical cyclone bearing down on the United Kingdom on February 12, 2014. Mature extratropical cyclones often feature comma-shaped cloud patterns that are the product of “conveyor belt†circulation. While heavy precipitation is often present near the low-pressure head of the comma, a slot of dry air is generally present to the west of the tail. Read more details at

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=83127&src=fb

Posted Imageimage.jpg

HIGH RISK FCST ISSUED FOR FRIDAY - SEVERE WINDSTORM HEADING FOR UNITED KINGDOM / NORTHERN FRANCE

A deep trough centered over NE Europe and E Atlantic with a strong depression is entering the British Isles from the southwest. This will enhance severe wind / heavy rain threat for the region on Friday.

*** A significant deep cyclone / windstorm is forecast to take place on Friday, bringing extreme damaging winds across the large part of western Europe, especially over S UK, English Channel and NW France. ***

A HIGH risk has been issued for S UK, English Channel, extreme N-NW France and towards the open waters of the eastern Atlantic with threat for extremely severe and potentially damaging both convective and non-convective severe winds, tornadoes and heavy excessive rainfall. Conditions are supporting potential for some severe storms as well, given the very strong forcing, a few hundreds J/kg of instability and extreme shear overlaping over the region. Some tornadoes could be strong. Areas included in the HIGH risk will be exposed to a very dangerous weather situation as extremely severe wind gusts well in excess of 140-150 km/h are very likely to occur, supporting high waves up to 15 metres as well.

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Don't really like the sound of that one bit.

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fax for monday

 

Posted Image

1 thing bad

 

more rainfall

 

1 good thing

 

the low has really weakened

 

breezy here but no concern re wind

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tuesday

 

Posted Image

 

a very weak westerly flow and looks dry

 

notice the low in the atlantic on mondays fax looks to be weakening as well

 

are we finally seeing these nasty atlantic storms give us a break??

 

hard call but at present its a start

 

ecm ensembles

 

temps

Posted Image

 

average

 

spread on the 19th so fi there at present

 

wind

 

Posted Image

 

after friday-saturday

 

winds look light so thats good

 

rain

Posted Image

 

surprised to call gfs an outlier tomorrow

 

rainfall overall looks a lot lighter than we have had

 

so at present is this is a start to a better outlook?

 

problem is the lows are still causing headaches so keeping in fax range for now Posted Image

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hi ian

 

thanks mate

 

incredible how fast time goes now

 

lets hope the fax charts are on to something

 

fingers toes and anything else i can cross now Posted ImagePosted Image

 

i also lost my mum 25 years ago and still miss her

 

its easier but the feelings are still there

 

best regards

 

john

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hi all,im new to posting but not new to met weather, was always in the model forcasting forum but this one so much better and alot friendlier.

john i find the way you explain the models alot more easier to follow so i thank you for that but also like you i lost my dad 2 years ago very suddenly and have not got no where near over the trauma so know exactly how you are feeling,but once again thank you for explaining the models in a simple way for people like me to understand.

i am also quite worried about the upcoming weather hear in peacehaven on the south coast on top of a hill exposed to the elements think i should say goodbye to all my fence panels now not just the ones that have already blown downPosted Image Posted Image will let you no how many more come crashing down

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hi all,im new to posting but not new to met weather, was always in the model forcasting forum but this one so much better and alot friendlier.

john i find the way you explain the models alot more easier to follow so i thank you for that but also like you i lost my dad 2 years ago very suddenly and have not got no where near over the trauma so know exactly how you are feeling,but once again thank you for explaining the models in a simple way for people like me to understand.

i am also quite worried about the upcoming weather hear in peacehaven on the south coast on top of a hill exposed to the elements think i should say goodbye to all my fence panels now not just the ones that have already blown downPosted Image Posted Image will let you no how many more come crashing down

 

hi rach

 

thanks and welcome

 

keep safe tomorrow pm onwards

 

 

 

and thankyou storme Posted Image

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hi all,im new to posting but not new to met weather, was always in the model forcasting forum but this one so much better and alot friendlier.

john i find the way you explain the models alot more easier to follow so i thank you for that but also like you i lost my dad 2 years ago very suddenly and have not got no where near over the trauma so know exactly how you are feeling,but once again thank you for explaining the models in a simple way for people like me to understand.

i am also quite worried about the upcoming weather hear in peacehaven on the south coast on top of a hill exposed to the elements think i should say goodbye to all my fence panels now not just the ones that have already blown downPosted Image Posted Image will let you no how many more come crashing down

i got banned from the model output and found this thread, it is much friendlier here and yes, quite a storm tomorrow

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hi all,im new to posting but not new to met weather, was always in the model forcasting forum but this one so much better and alot friendlier.

john i find the way you explain the models alot more easier to follow so i thank you for that but also like you i lost my dad 2 years ago very suddenly and have not got no where near over the trauma so know exactly how you are feeling,but once again thank you for explaining the models in a simple way for people like me to understand.

i am also quite worried about the upcoming weather hear in peacehaven on the south coast on top of a hill exposed to the elements think i should say goodbye to all my fence panels now not just the ones that have already blown downPosted Image Posted Image will let you no how many more come crashing down

 

Hello, I to live in Peacehaven.

Looks like we are in for a wild one tomorrow night, we look to be right in the 80mph zone being forecast, as we are right on the coast in the middle of the predicted track of the biggest gusts.

 In the storm on the 23rd december I recorded 79mph on the weather station on my roof, yesterday was a max of 61mph, be interesting to see what  I get tomorrow.

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http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t60

 

heres the link for the fax charts

 

they will update tomorrow morning so have a look at them around 7 am

 

i will be working tomorrow so will not be on until around 6pm

 

i reckon the walk home from work will be fun

 

anyway going to switch off now

 

take care all and talk tomorrow

 

nite nite Posted ImagePosted Image

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