South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 13/02/14

[Jan_Bromley]

The heaviest rain of the winter here - just got back from Bluewater to find water flooding into the basement... Have sent husband outside to see if there is a blocked drain or whether it's just the drain can't cope with the sheer volume of water. What a romantic Valentine's Day we're having!

 

So sorry Kate. Hope you can prevent more water coming in x

[Marie]

We'll the rain has finally stopped here at last ,it's been chucking it down since 7.30am .current temp is 9.3 ( feels colder) pressure dropping 978.9 ,sky is looking brighter out to sea

[knightrider]

The sky is a very dark leaden grey colour here at the moment and the rain is steady and getting heavier and heavier it seems, the winds are moderate to fresh breeze from a south to south easterly direction and are slowly but steadily increasing, once the back edge of the main rain band passes through and the rash of showers follow in behind later this evening that's when the winds will swing around to a south westerly and increase to Gale / severe gale force with locally storm force gusts in exposed locations near coastlines and on hilltops. Widespread inland gusts generally 55-65mph locally 70mph on coasts 75-80mph locally perhaps 85-90mph.

[Snowangel-MK]

Just seen this on WWUK and it made me giggle so I thought I would share it with you all ....

Extreme Advanced Weather Warning - Dry, calm conditions.

Bar a few scattered showers and some rain moving into far western parts late in the day, Sunday will bring largely dry and calm conditions for many parts of the UK.

Please make your friends and loved ones aware as conditions that have been so rare for so long may come as a huge shock leading to mass hysteria among the general public.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Hammering it down here now at the rate of 6.6mm/hr 

[fluid dynamic]

Many of us on here have sufficient experience to realise that the MetO produces decent forecasts..... But they are only forecasts. As we know they admit to dropping the ball now and then which isnt unforgivable, its just that they dont know fluid dynamics as well as the atmosphere- no one does.

Different forecasters are entitled to their views. The quality of their output is judged only by accuracy. And hence a track record.

Live and let live.

[Jan_Bromley]

I spoke to soon!

 

EA have just rung - the rain gauge warning at Weir Wood has gone off... meaning over 10mm in <2hrs has fallen with more heavy intense stuff to come between now and 5.30 tonight.

The stream has just been put on flood warning. 

 

Judging from the fact it's still raining heavily here with more to come, I anticipate it could be out of bank by about 16.00 unless we get some respite between bursts....hopefully though it won;t be enough to seriously challenge the properties.Off to move carxxx

 

Good luck PP. Hope you are all ok x

[snowrye]

well monsoon rains here as i

look out of my office window,office window is the windscreen in my taxi btw,already some trees down in a few places,can see tonight and tomoz being fun,not.stay safe everyone

[Isabellesnanny]

Really worrying thinking about tonight - we have a tree that is bigger than the house which terrifies me in this wind - unable to cut it down as it has a preservation order in it - hubby says it has probably seen worse in the last 150 years but very worried.

 

I am just going to stick to Tamaras advice - no point in over analysing and seeking out opinions all over the shop to find the worse case scenario  - May well move to the bedroom at the front of the house for the night but other than that is hope it is no worse than Wednesday and that I sleep through most of it. Hope everyone escapes unscathed.

[knightrider]

Just seen this on WWUK and it made me giggle so I thought I would share it with you all ....

1743590_286729951480992_2063061734_n.png

Extreme Advanced Weather Warning - Dry, calm conditions.

Bar a few scattered showers and some rain moving into far western parts late in the day, Sunday will bring largely dry and calm conditions for many parts of the UK.

Please make your friends and loved ones aware as conditions that have been so rare for so long may come as a huge shock leading to mass hysteria among the general public.

LOL

Really worrying thinking about tonight - we have a tree that is bigger than the house which terrifies me in this wind - unable to cut it down as it has a preservation order in it - hubby says it has probably seen worse in the last 150 years but very worried.

 

I am just going to stick to Tamaras advice - no point in over analysing and seeking out opinions all over the shop to find the worse case scenario  - May well move to the bedroom at the front of the house for the night but other than that is hope it is no worse than Wednesday and that I sleep through most of it. Hope everyone escapes unscathed.

How big is this tree?  I'm sure if it survived 1987 then it'll survive this lol

[BB1979]

Stroll home after last orders could be a bit windy and soggy. Lets hope for a lock-in

[Isabellesnanny]

LOL

How big is this tree?  I'm sure if it survived 1987 then it'll survive this lol

Not sure of exact measurements but can see it over the top of the house !!!! There were two when we moved in but one died so we were able to have it taken down even with the order - this one unfortunately very healthy and unable to do anything due to the order in it - yes survived '87 so fingers crossed.

[Tamara]

I *think* everyones apprehension is focused around how late Wednesdays red warnings came. It seemed Meto didnt realise or think things would be that bad and didnt issue the red warning until it was on their doorstep. I in no way think this will be on that scale and dont imagine for a minute we'll have red warnings for todays. I think (Correct me if I'm wrong) but Wednesdays storm was still a developing low as opposed to this one which is fully matured so that made it harder to predict? I'm just saying I can see why people are trying to read between the lines. I think we can all just safetly assume its not a good idea to be going out tonight

With regard to the METO, as you say, Wednesdays storm was a slightly different beast to this one. That low underwent very rapid cyclogenesis right on its approach to the UK and arrived at its most intense state of wind speeds exactly on arrival over Ireland and the west coasts of Wales and NW England. It was also a smaller system than this one and much harder to gauge how such rapid intensification of the system would manifest itself in wind strength over what was a smaller area than the low we have arriving here today.

 

The short term high resolution models picked up the very strongest gusts on Wednesday morning and it became a piece of micro forecasting for where the most damaging winds would focus. Hence the red warnings were issued immediately afterwards when these were indentified. It was one of those very very difficult forecasting situations and if the METO are going to issue a red warning, then they have to be very confident indeed that they identify precisely the areas to be impacted. With such a small and very unstable 'bomb' of a low pressure that is not an easy task. Thet were rather left, imo, in a rather no win situation

 

With this low pressure system, however, it is a different outlook because the evolution and arrival of the low is not the same as Wednesday.

 

It underwent rapid intensification close to the Azores and deepened further to maturity in the south west approaches overnight and into this morning. Such development has made it a larger depression than its predecessor, with a larger wind field. Being a mature system, this low already has a more evenly spread wind field, and also because it has already matured (and will be filling on its track along the breadth of the UK , then this means that there is not the potential for sudden increases in wind strength at short notice as was the case with Wednesdays low. Gusts of course have to be accounted for within the more unstable showery airmass of the low that follows the main rain band today but these cannot be anticipated in location as they are, obviously, too hit and miss

 

On this basis then, I think a good judgement of confidence can be made in terms of the warnings that have been issued so far with no last minute further shocks and surprises

 

I think reading between the lines is clearly fine and right when discussing what is likely within realistic parameters. That is different however to trying to present information gained from elsewhere that makes more than is what expected within those parameters and simply scares people uneccesarily. Its obviously easier to gain that perspective with a little knowledge such as many on a forum like this will possess, but I think that makes it more important still to try and make posts which accurately present what is likely to happen without sensationalising anything

 

Edit: Sorry, just got paragraphs in the right order!!

 

GFS 12z suggests strongest winds departing before dawn

 

Edited February 14, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[<<Ryan>>]

Rain here is really bad, I've never seen everywhere flooded as bad as it is now! Already seen a small tree down too, stay safe everyone

[Snowangel-MK]

The rain has well and truly arrived here....there has been some very heavy showers of rain in MK during the later part of the morning and the early afternoon, some sloppy bits in the more intense bursts too and it's feeling really damp and chilly...I'm expecting the water level that had dropped somewhat to be back up as high if not higher than ever by tomorrow if it carries on like this...driving back from taking Mr P to work the surface water was probably the worst I've ever driven through, it just seemed as if the drains were not coping with it (maybe there is just no where else for it to go now).....anticipating some damage from the wind tonight if nothing else the tree roots must be working themselves loose with all the wind and rain so it probably wouldn't take much to uproot some of them now - I can see it being a hot choccy and onesie night tonight !

[Tilly]

These are the 2 on my doorstep. Since the October storm they make the most horrible creaking noise when the wind blows. If they fell towards the house they'd definately reach it but no idea how much damage they'd do. My son sleeps along the front wall facing them so he'll be in with me tonight! They survived 1987 when so many others next to them didn't, the ground they're in is soooooo boggy now though. It is a worry!

[fluid dynamic]

Not sure of exact measurements but can see it over the top of the house !!!! There were two when we moved in but one died so we were able to have it taken down even with the order - this one unfortunately very healthy and unable to do anything due to the order in it - yes survived '87 so fingers crossed.

 

I love trees and we need more of them.

 

But if they are a risk to life and property we need to take a sensible view. The council official with his clip board and preservation orders doesnt always see it that way unfortunately. We dont know how strong the wind has to be before a particular tree goes down,  but I hope you stay safe.

 

Ps. (Copper nails in the base , just saying  )

 

But preferably - proper maintenance and cutting off dangerous limbs and branches will help.

Edited February 14, 2014 by fluid dynamic

[alexisj9]

been raining heavy for a bit now, just picked up my chloe from school and found a waterfall running down the bank, then carrying on down the hill as a stream, feel sorry for the people who live opposite the school as it is running up to there houses, can't see it do much other than build up. The source a very flooded school car park.

[stainesbloke]

image.jpg

These are the 2 on my doorstep. Since the October storm they make the most horrible creaking noise when the wind blows. If they fell towards the house they'd definately reach it but no idea how much damage they'd do. My son sleeps along the front wall facing them so he'll be in with me tonight! They survived 1987 when so many others next to them didn't, the ground they're in is soooooo boggy now though. It is a worry!

They look quite wind firm to me Tilly, they don't look too mature and appear healthy. Think tonight's winds is more of a branch snapper rather than an uprooter but as everyone is aware the ground is saturated so sensible precautions apply.

[Habsish]

Just got back from Hastings. Most unpleasant drive but fortunately no particular hold ups.

Just lit fire, wound central heating up, poured a nice drink and settled in a comfy chair.

[Tilly]

They look quite wind firm to me Tilly, they don't look too mature and appear healthy. Think tonight's winds is more of a branch snapper rather than an uprooter but as everyone is aware the ground is saturated so sensible precautions apply.

Phew! That sounds good to me

[knightrider]

image.jpg

These are the 2 on my doorstep. Since the October storm they make the most horrible creaking noise when the wind blows. If they fell towards the house they'd definately reach it but no idea how much damage they'd do. My son sleeps along the front wall facing them so he'll be in with me tonight! They survived 1987 when so many others next to them didn't, the ground they're in is soooooo boggy now though. It is a worry!

Hope you stay safe, rain has got considerably heavier here in the last few minutes and the sky is getting worryingly dark

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Can you link it as I can't find the right bit that tells you the knots

It was an expression mate. If you look at the trailing front from us to just off Portugal, the clouds are moving like the clappers!

[Snowangel-MK]

More Severe Flood Warnings have been issued for southern coasts due to the risk of large waves at high tide this evening and tomorrow morning.....

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/34678.aspx?type=Severity&term=1

[Bovril]

Rain as stopped and complete calm winds here now (North London) Guess this will change later again though.