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South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 13/02/14


Snowangel-MK

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Posted
  • Location: East Dulwich, London South of the River
  • Location: East Dulwich, London South of the River

My fingers crossed - 12 noon flight from Gatwick to SUNNY Florida Saturday…ahhhhh.  Not happy with the expanded Orange blob. I hate the idea of driving through the weather in the am. 

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Posted
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3

As stated earlier, the essence of the actual windfield as modelled since yesterday hasn't changed. The impression is created that things have upgraded because the METO have extended the amber area but that simply means they have greater confidence (as would be expected) of the areas where wind gusts exceeding 60 mph are possible. 

 

However actual wind strength distributions are largely the same as suggested yesterday. This is a matured low pressure system so it makes sense that the wind field will be larger and thus cover a larger area. The actual strengths though are no more than previously suggested. This is where the perspective should lie I thinkPosted Image

While I agree with respect to maximum winds and chances of, I do also think the amber warning has been increased because the centre of the low pressure looks to be taking a slightly more easterly track (up the irish sea) than progged by the models ?

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Posted
  • Location: Haselemere, SW Surrey
  • Location: Haselemere, SW Surrey

My fingers crossed - 12 noon flight from Gatwick to SUNNY Florida Saturday…ahhhhh.  Not happy with the expanded Orange blob. I hate the idea of driving through the weather in the am. 

 

 

Hopefully you will be fine.

 

We are due to fly from Heathrow in the morning to Istanbul.  Believe or not we are staying in the Noah's Ark Hotel!

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

Yellow Warning of Wind for London & South East England :

Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Portsmouth, Southampton, Surrey, West Sussex, Buckinghamshire, Milton Keynes, Bracknell Forest, Oxfordshire, Reading, Slough, West Berkshire, Windsor and Maidenhead & Wokingham

A further period of very strong winds is expected across southern England and parts of South Wales and the Midlands from Friday afternoon, overnight into Saturday morning. Gusts of 60-70 mph are possible, especially in coastal areas, with 80 mph possible along most exposed English Channel coasts (see separate Amber Warning). Winds will ease from the west during Saturday morning.

The public should be aware of the potential for disruption to travel as well as trees being uprooted. The very strong winds will be accompanied by large waves along the south coast and the public should be aware of potentially dangerous conditions and also the possibility of coastal flooding.

Issued at:

1035 on Fri 14 Feb 2014

Valid from:

1500 on Fri 14 Feb 2014

Valid to:

1200 on Sat 15 Feb 2014

Please note an amber warning (previously posted) accompanies this larger yellow warning and there is also a yellow warning for rain - The white zone is for immediate loading and unloading of sandbags only. There is no swimming in the red zone...

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Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex

Hi AllJJ1 - sorry to hear Southernman is in hospital - are you going to be OK for tomorrow's stormfest?Hi PP,Sounds like you've been really busy, I hope you didn't have much more trouble with the water issues you were having a few days ago.Southernman has been in and out of hospital for over a week now they are letting him go again this afternoon just in time for the storm but he still doesn't sound well to me, I haven't seen him for days as I was too unwell to go to the hospital and visit him.Truth to tell I am a little bit miserable as I had new medication which is meant to be making me feel better but I still feel too ill to be out of bed much, maybe it'll start working soon.I wonder if the volcano will make any difference to our weather?Anyway I'm spending the day glued to sky news and netweather for information about the storm.Its calm here at the moment, no wind, no rain, just very gloomy and chilly but I heard that the rain has already reached the south-west.Stay safe everyone.

What volcano is that? Love volcanoes.

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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

My fingers crossed - 12 noon flight from Gatwick to SUNNY Florida Saturday…ahhhhh.  Not happy with the expanded Orange blob. I hate the idea of driving through the weather in the am. 

 

It might be sunny but it's below 0C in parts of Georgia - don't think it will be swimming weather...

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10637548/Winter-storm-dumps-snow-across-US.html

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

As stated earlier, the essence of the actual windfield as modelled since yesterday hasn't changed. The impression is created that things have upgraded because the METO have extended the amber area but that simply means they have greater confidence (as would be expected) of the areas where wind gusts exceeding 60 mph are possible. 

 

However actual wind strength distributions are largely the same as suggested yesterday. This is a matured low pressure system so it makes sense that the wind field will be larger and thus cover a larger area. The actual strengths though are no more than previously suggested. This is where the perspective should lie I thinkPosted Image

 

@ Buzzit I think the track is more or less consistent with yesterday.  In 24 hr periods there are bound to be micro variations. Most people outside of a weather forum wouldn't notice these - its only because on these forums we scrutinise and analyse every last detailPosted Image

 

Yes, I've just looked at the Met Office site for predicted windspeeds for the closest station to myself. The highest three hour interval windspeeds are 37mph, gusting 58mph at 3:00 tomorrow morning - pretty much the same as has been shown for the last day or two.

 

Imho, I don't feel those justify my area being under an amber.

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Posted
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
  • Location: Great Yarmouth

probably just my ridiculous sense of humour but I found David "I think I'm Winston Churchill" Cameron's speech this morning really amusing."The weather is being fought by the military"Stop or we shoot! Take that, damned storm! Bang!

What volcano is that? Love volcanoes.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26183880there's this one yesterday but there was another one nearby last week as well.
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Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts

Yes, I've just looked at the Met Office site for predicted windspeeds for the closest station to myself. The highest three hour interval windspeeds are 37mph, gusting 58mph at 3:00 tomorrow morning - pretty much the same as has been shown for the last day or two. Imho, I don't feel those justify my area being under an amber.

Of course things will change, but I'd expect those wind speeds to be somewhat underestimated.
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Posted
  • Location: Cuxton,Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms,Hot `n` sunny!
  • Location: Cuxton,Kent.

Trip to Herne Bay, gusty with a little drizzle let's see what the medway Bridge has to offer me on the way back!

Hopefully home this afternoon before things get entertaining.

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Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

Heavy, persistent rain here. Horrible.

 

Wind picking up a bit, though nothing of note yet. That seems likely to change later!

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Posted
  • Location: IN THE FOOT HILLS AND DENSELY FORESTED AREAS OF TUNBRIDGE WELLS IN KENT
  • Weather Preferences: I like a bit of weather
  • Location: IN THE FOOT HILLS AND DENSELY FORESTED AREAS OF TUNBRIDGE WELLS IN KENT

Gusty and heavy rain here

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Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex

probably just my ridiculous sense of humour but I found David "I think I'm Winston Churchill" Cameron's speech this morning really amusing."The weather is being fought by the military"Stop or we shoot! Take that, damned storm! Bang!http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26183880there's this one yesterday but there was another one nearby last week as well.

Many thanks for the answer JJ and I agree about the speech.

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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)

Wind and rain really picking up here now. I have a viewing for a flat at 14:45; I hope I don't get blown away. If you see a rather small woman with a Nipper in a push chair flying over, it'll be me, ok. :D

Take care if you're out and about, folks. It's gonna be a bumpy ride. :O

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Posted
  • Location: East of Loughborough! 84m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Wind, Rain, Sun.....but mainly cooler weather!
  • Location: East of Loughborough! 84m ASL

I can confirm Gatwick is still operational. I cannot deny or confirm delays from here though. Virgin 747-400 due to leave to the US soon though.

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

Yellow Warning of Wind for London & South East England :Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Portsmouth, Southampton, Surrey, West Sussex, Buckinghamshire, Milton Keynes, Bracknell Forest, Oxfordshire, Reading, Slough, West Berkshire, Windsor and Maidenhead & WokinghamA further period of very strong winds is expected across southern England and parts of South Wales and the Midlands from Friday afternoon, overnight into Saturday morning. Gusts of 60-70 mph are possible, especially in coastal areas, with 80 mph possible along most exposed English Channel coasts (see separate Amber Warning). Winds will ease from the west during Saturday morning.The public should be aware of the potential for disruption to travel as well as trees being uprooted. The very strong winds will be accompanied by large waves along the south coast and the public should be aware of potentially dangerous conditions and also the possibility of coastal flooding.Issued at:1035 on Fri 14 Feb 2014Valid from:1500 on Fri 14 Feb 2014Valid to:1200 on Sat 15 Feb 2014Please note an amber warning (previously posted) accompanies this larger yellow warning and there is also a yellow warning for rain - The white zone is for immediate loading and unloading of sandbags only. There is no swimming in the red zone...

Morning folks well the weather is already closing in here this morning the rain has started all be it only drizzle at the moment and the wind has began picking up already, not looking forward to tonight as I don't think I'll be getting much sleep the Amber warning zone has recently been expanded by the Met Office to cover more of our region including more inland areas of Kent, Essex and eastern Greater London where it states gusts of 60mph or more are possible!

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Posted
  • Location: Doddington, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Tornadoes, Snow and Hot Sun
  • Location: Doddington, Kent

Yes, I've just looked at the Met Office site for predicted windspeeds for the closest station to myself. The highest three hour interval windspeeds are 37mph, gusting 58mph at 3:00 tomorrow morning - pretty much the same as has been shown for the last day or two.

 

Imho, I don't feel those justify my area being under an amber.

 

Bit strange their updates in the warnings. They've put us under Amber but I see they've knocked 10mph off the gust windspeeds since this morning. It was 67mph earlier and has now dropped to 57mph for 3am. Oh well I guess we wont know til its here.

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

Yes, I've just looked at the Met Office site for predicted windspeeds for the closest station to myself. The highest three hour interval windspeeds are 37mph, gusting 58mph at 3:00 tomorrow morning - pretty much the same as has been shown for the last day or two.

 

Imho, I don't feel those justify my area being under an amber.

Remember the Met Office wind predictions are only based on averages over 3 hour periods so if it says gusts upto 58mph that's to be taken as an average at any specific time, in reality there'll probably be a fair number of gusts above 60mph maybe even close to 70mph which for inland places certainly merits an Amber warning.

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Posted
  • Location: East Dulwich, London South of the River
  • Location: East Dulwich, London South of the River

Iceni -

 

It will be warm - 70-80 f. for the week. It is just south enough of Georgia for better temps. Sorry - straying off topic - back to the deluge at hand...

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Posted
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3

I know it is the Met Office iPhone App, but it is currently saying 45Mph sustained and 85Mph gusts between midnight and 3am for Hampton through Islington

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Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex

Inshore water forecast for my area. I always hate it when they put violent storm 11 for inshore!! Looks like being a bit rough later.

Maybe.  Posted Image

 

North Foreland to Selsey Bill

Strong winds are forecast

For coastal areas up to 12 miles offshore from 0600 UTC Fri 14 Feb until 0600 UTC Sat 15 Feb

24 hour forecast: Wind Southerly 5 or 6, backing southeasterly 6 to gale 8, then veering southwesterly gale 8 to storm 10, perhaps violent storm 11 for a time later. Sea State Moderate or rough, becoming very rough or high, perhaps very high for a time later. Weather Rain then squally showers. Visibility Moderate or poor, becoming good, occasionally moderate.          

 

Wight

Gale warnings - Issued: 0945 UTC Fri 14 Feb

Gale force 8 increasing severe gale force 9 imminent, veering southwesterly and increasing violent storm force 11 soon

Edited by coldfingers
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