South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 13/02/14

[Tilly]

Happy Balentines Day (as my kidletts call it) xxx

 

Sky is absolutely black here, super fast moving clouds. Going to pop out and do all our buts early so we avoid any wind! stay safe everyone 

[Jason T]

Good Morning all. So here we go again.

 

 

Later tonight South taken brunt again.

 

 

 

 

Ridiculous 

[bobbydog]

Looks like the pressure gradient has been upped further on tonight's storm could get a little over 70mph inland.. Will post charts soon as on the train starting the slave trade called work -.-

 

actually as of 6am, the met office have reduced the gust speeds over our region by about 5mph overall

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/london-greater-london#?tab=map&map=GustSpeed&locId=352409&zoom=8&lon=-1.17&lat=50.94&fcTime=1392379200

 

not a great deal but we'll find out later

[abruzzi spur]

Just heard the Met Office Chief Forecaster on Radio 4.  He said gusts of 70, perhaps 80 mph, on the south coast, and overall not as severe as Wednesday.  Still bad, clearly, but not the 100mph that some have rather wildly and unhelpfully been predicting. 

 

Definitley a day to keep an eye on the updates from the knowledgeable on here and, of course,the MO.

 

Have a good day all.

 

AS

Edited February 14, 2014 by abruzzi spur

[Heisenberg]

morning all,

 

Rain just about to start in Southwark. What time are the winds (the serious winds) due to start around us?

 

Oh and happy "buy an overpriced card and flowers day".....sorry Im a total cynic about V day......

 

For those of you that have loved and lost someone...anyone, this is something for you x

 

Imagine if I was given one moment,
just a single slice of my past.
I could hold it close forever,
and that moment would always last.

I'd put the moment in a safe,
within my hearts abode.
I could open it when I wanted,
and only I would know the code.

I could choose a time of laughing,
a time of happiness and fun.
I could choose a time that tried me,
through everything I've done.

I sat and thought about what moment,
would always make me smile.
One that would always push me,
to walk that extra mile.

If I'm feeling sad and low,
if I'm struggling with what to do.
I can go and open my little safe,
and watch my moment through.

There are moments I can think of,
that would lift my spirits everytime.
The moments when you picked me up,
when the road was hard to climb.

For me to only pick one moment,
to cherish, save and keep,
Is proving really difficult,
as I've gathered up a heap!

I've dug deep inside my heart,
found the safe and looked inside,
there was room for lots of moments,
in fact hundreds if I tried.

I'm building my own little library,
embedded in my heart,
for all the moments spent with you,
before you had to part.

I can open it up whenever I like,
pick a moment and watch it through,
My little library acts as a promise,
I'll never ever forget you

Edited February 14, 2014 by lloydyd

[Tom Quintavalle]

JP,

 

Could get a bit blowy in downtown Croydon tonight, working until 9.30 (No POETVD, for me!) 

 

I suppose I could open my umbrella and fly back to Chislehurst. Joking aside, hope everyone stays safe, especially those of you down on the South Coast. Lets hope that's the last of this Winter's intense depressions.

 

Have a good day everyone, take care and Happy Valentines, of course.

 

Btw, really do apologise about that ridiculous link in my signature, perhaps if I remove it the white stuff will magically appear.

 

Anybody up for a Lightning/Thunder Cup, I'll have to record mine by proxy though! 

 

Tom.

Edited February 14, 2014 by Kentish CZ

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Sky looking a bit broody and sulky this morn and it's spitting with rain. Like we need any more of that stuff.

It's gonna be an interesting POETS day. Have a good un peeps.

[loopydreamer]

Checked the raintoday radar and am surprised to see the rain so close already. Is this storm arriving sooner then predicted?

[AmericanSusie]

It has expanded in size so - rain now - acc. to previous posts…timing of highest winds etc seems about the same...

[steveinsussex]

Checked the raintoday radar and am surprised to see the rain so close already. Is this storm arriving sooner then predicted?

The rain was always due to arrive this morning during this time, the winds don't get going until later today

[NO LONGER POSTING]

This is the problem I see..

 

you got a 160mph jet stream over with this pressure gradient..

 

 

75mph inland MAX

 

85mph coast MAX

 

IF big if we do get a few downdrafts ETC which has been picked up by a few, then we could get a 90mph on the coast and 80mph inland... 

 

Stay safe peeps, this is going to be a wild day.. and VERY wild night

[fluid dynamic]

Reporting from Goddards Green. 4degrees C on the way here. May have seen some warm sleet on the windscreen, no snowdrifts driven by 100mph gusts yet. Only a matter of time

[Paul Sherman]

Yes this non-convective band of precip was always expected to travel across us early today, it is the Post Frontal Trough (trough's ? maybe 2 of them) later that really crank things up, and if showers form (very likely) then the gusts around those showers could be maximised. Cape is Skinny and Meagre later but SRH & Deep Layer Shear are maximised suggesting a slim Supercell chance as well should something interesting form, would think mainly C Southern England for this say Dorset, Hampshire and isle Of Wight coastal regions.

 

Looking forward to later on today for sure!

[Team Jo]

Chucking down here at work already... Happy Friday folks

[Guest]

Happy Valentines day to each and everyone of you. I spend a lot of time on this forum, reading each of your posts. Have a fabulous day whatever the weather. Oh... its raining here and miserable lol. x

[Rendaridra]

Cold, rainy with strengthening winds here

[alexisj9]

Happy Valentines day all.

[snow raven]

Morning all, and Happy V-day to those that bother celebrating.  I've been with my husband 17 years - honestly, you get lesser sentence for murder these days

 

As for the weather, it's bloody horrible out there.  Wet, cloudy and cold - the worse type of weather in my books.

 

Happy POETS day!

[coldfingers]

Walked the dog earlier. He didn't want to go out as it was already gale force 8 and heavy rain. I opened the door, he backed up, tail down and ears back! Had to coax him out with a boot (a gentle one ) shoving his backside. We were out five minutes as he did his business in record time then turned for home, .... much to my relief. It is already horrible out and the worst of the wind and rain has yet to come.

http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

A good webcam of the beach at Bognor, likely to be interesting at high tide tonight 23:25.

[totalhysteria]

Morning all,

 

Happy Valentines day :-)

 

Wet and horrible here in Brighton.

[Tamara]

Agreement across the models consolidated as per yesterday so I wouldn't expect much if any change in METO warning updates stated yesterday. It looks, if anything, as if the progress of the low across the UK and exiting into the North Sea towards Scandinavia is a little faster than yesterday so strongest winds should be decreasing soon after daybreak although obviously it will be a blustery day left behind.

 

However, through the afternoon winds will be decreasing quite markedly everywhere with pressure recovering back towards 1000mb from the south west. We can see already even by dusk tomorrow the low is well away to the NE and isobars more widely spaced. This holds the promise of a much quieter night on Saturday and hopefully a pleasant enough Sunday as a small ridge comes across

 

 

 

So, we have just got to get through a nervy 24 hours but then at least we finally see the end of the windstorm threats even though further rain seems probable into next week. However, with luck there will be longer drier spells in between rain bands as the jet energy coming out of NE Canada is reduced and heads rather further north to allow pressure to rise a little from the south even if it stays changeable for a while yet

 

.

Happy Valentines Day to all  Its a pity that it couldn't have fallen this Sunday with the storm out of the way and with the quieter conditions that are to follow.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

actually as of 6am, the met office have reduced the gust speeds over our region by about 5mph overall

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/london-greater-london#?tab=map&map=GustSpeed&locId=352409&zoom=8&lon=-1.17&lat=50.94&fcTime=1392379200

 

not a great deal but we'll find out later

 

I never really take those into account as I think they are computer generated like the BBC forecast? I may be wrong though

[Iceni]

Well I don't feel very romantic. EDF sent us a Valentine to say our monthly electricity would go up from £113 to £175. Worked out that in Canada, it would average £56 a month.

 

And of course instead of a 70mph storm we'd have lovely clear moon/starlight sparkling on the snow and another sunny day to look forward to with no filthy mud everywhere. Temperatures not that low either - -4.9 °C atm - and the lowest has been nothing we didn't have in December 2010.

Edited February 14, 2014 by Iceni

[bobbydog]

I never really take those into account as I think they are computer generated like the BBC forecast? I may be wrong though

 

i think you're right but i find them to be fairly accurate.

[saint]

Surrey, I think you're right about the METO gust forecasts- They're computer generated with little or no human input, so are often a little sketchy. (Much like most online forecasts tbh)