South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 13/02/14

[Steve C]

Unlike previous storms, tomorrow's also looks like it could be quite a sustained period of higher winds. 

Definitely long lasting - which did catch my eye, but 23rd December was similarly so - I think there were gale force (at least) gusts for 15 hours or so here. It is a good point though, as I'm sure that a large tree that succumbed to that December gale nearby, was done for by the constant buffeting it took. 

Edited February 13, 2014 by Steve C

[Tilly]

just came back from early Valentines lunch and saw some AMAZING black skies. Didnt have my camera I managed to get a pic as it was  trundling off in the distance when I got home. It dumped a load of hail but no rain. I just said to the OH I hate being indoors when its like that outside and he said I was mad, most people are the other way round!  Looks like a Summers day outside now.

[Steve C]

The met office are forecasting more unsettled weather, however the lows won't be so vigorous and there will be longer breaks between each system, are the models showing this?

Unfortunately the GFS 06Z run looks pretty unsettled for the next 10 days, or so (but it dries out afterwards) but, like you say, the intense depressions stop with the early weekend storm.

[Keraunic]

It's been lovely here today. But now some very big, grey clouds drifting about.

Anyway, here are the ducks on the Orwell enjoying the brief respite,

[knightrider]

Where are you getting these figures from? Yes there will be some intense gusts but nothing I have seen is mentioning those sort of speeds.

Met Office have now issued Amber warnings for London & SE England which effectively confirms it, they wouldn't issue Amber warnings if the gusts weren't going to be in the 60mph+ region at least!

[Sussex Jules]

Not heard 90mph mentioned anywhere,however i have heard BBC forecasts calling for 70mph INLAND gusts for a time tomorrow night in the SE,and 80mph on the south coast.All comparable with our strongest winter storms this year in October and Xmas eve.

Indeed.In fact based on Met O raw data it has me down for peak gust of 71 mph. My point was that we need to stick to facts rather than hopecasting or scaremongering. Alot of people come on to our regional for factual information and we have a lot of posters on here that do just that. My advice to anyone unsure how to read the models and whats a more detailed prediction use Met O they have been spot on this winter.

[Sussex Jules]

Met Office have now issued Amber warnings for London & SE England which effectively confirms it, they wouldn't issue Amber warnings if the gusts weren't going to be in the 60mph+ region at least!

The amber warning is specifically along the South coast. London and the rest of the South East is covered by a yellow warning

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1392336000&regionName=se

[knightrider]

Indeed.In fact based on Met O raw data it has me down for peak gust of 71 mph. My point was that we need to stick to facts rather than hopecasting or scaremongering. Alot of people come on to our regional for factual information and we have a lot of posters on here that do just that. My advice to anyone unsure how to read the models and whats a more detailed prediction use Met O they have been spot on this winter.

It will upgrade I know how these warnings work, MetO won't stick their neck out until the last possible minute before finalizing their forecasts. Remember how only until about within 24 hours of yesterday's storms they where forecasting winds generally of 60-70mph locally 80mph then it wasn't until yesterday morning within hours of the most extreme winds hitting the west coast that they upgraded their warnings from Amber to Red and the 100mph predictions which of course came true, however this time I suspect it won't get above the Amber warning status but let's not underestimate this storms potential to gather strength before it makes landfall that's all I'm saying.

[Atlantis]

Not looking forward to tomorrow at all.

With the amber warning now in place, looks like we are all in for another battering again. The high winds worry me most as I have very large conifer trees at the back of my garden and have watched them bending and swaying in yesterday's storm and wondered how they did not go over. They are protected by a water tower behind them, so I hope it does the same tomorrow.

I feel desperately sorry for people like Surrey as the torrential rain expected will be the last thing they need.

[saint]

For Herts etc, we'll probably be seeing the highest winds since St Jude, and the damage then was caused by a half hour period of intense gusts, so tomorrow, if it continues, and with forecasts of 60mph here, could be quite interesting. 

 

Of course, there is still time for lots of change. 

Edited February 13, 2014 by saint

[Sidsnake]

It will upgrade I know how these warnings work, MetO won't stick their neck out until the last possible minute before finalizing their forecasts. Remember how only until about within 24 hours of yesterday's storms they where forecasting winds generally of 60-70mph locally 80mph then it wasn't until yesterday morning within hours of the most extreme winds hitting the west coast that they upgraded their warnings from Amber to Red and the 100mph predictions which of course came true, however this time I suspect it won't get above the Amber warning status but let's not underestimate this storms potential to gather strength before it makes landfall that's all I'm saying.

To be honest I'm with you on this one. Sunny and breezy here at moment. But I have got a growing concern about tomorrow. It all happened so quickly yesterday morning...

[knightrider]

To be honest I'm with you on this one. Sunny and breezy here at moment. But I have got a growing concern about tomorrow. It all happened so quickly yesterday morning...

Indeed I think the Met Office where caught out by it somewhat and where almost left embarrassed, thankfully their warnings where enough hours before the event to get the latest warnings filtering through to the national news bulletins otherwise if they had cut it any finer they could have been facing something similar to a 1987 scenario.

[Flaked Queen]

So are some of you saying this is the calm before the storm ? I know not to belive much the papers say but to be honest there must be some truth in it ?

[knightrider]

So are some of you saying this is the calm before the storm ? I know not to belive much the papers say but to be honest there must be some truth in it ?

To extent yes but to what extent is still unknown, it looks as if most of us can expect another very windy spell tomorrow night with at least Gale-force gusts if not something more what is more concerning at the moment though is the predicted rainfall totals, god help all those flood victims in the Thames valley! 

[Flaked Queen]

To extent yes but to what extent is still unknown, it looks as if most of us can expect another very windy spell tomorrow night with at least Gale-force gusts if not something more what is more concerning at the moment though is the predicted rainfall totals, god help all those flood victims in the Thames valley!  http://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum//public/style_emoticons/default/xsad.png.pagespeed.ic.nW56hUVS2R.png

Ok thank you And yes I feel for all the flood victims wish there was a way I could help All I can say is keep safe all x

[Steve C]

So are some of you saying this is the calm before the storm ? I know not to belive much the papers say but to be honest there must be some truth in it ?

I wouldn't take anything in the papers at face value, as their agenda is selling more copies and sensationalist headlines will do it. I saw a headline in the Mirror this morning, which was misleading to say the least...

 

My opinion, is to keep an eye on the Met Office updates and refer to late evening postings by John and others you might trust. You won't go far wrong. A 1987 type mistake is extremely unlikely now, due to the internet, as much as anything.

[JennyJane1]

Not only are there floods and storms but sky is saying that box bombs have been found all over the country at army careers centres and some are viable, Brighton town centre has been evacuated.And I feel sad for Dave Lee Travis as well.

[knightrider]

I wouldn't take anything in the papers at face value, as their agenda is selling more copies and sensationalist headlines will do it. I saw a headline in the Mirror this morning, which was misleading to say the least...

 

My opinion, is to keep an eye on the Met Office updates and refer to late evening postings by John and others you might trust. You won't go far wrong. A 1987 type mistake is extremely unlikely now, due to the internet, as much as anything.

Yes but TV forecasts are far more vital then internet forecasts still because more people take note of them, unless your a weather enthusiast you probably won't spend all the hours of your day looking at online forecasts like we do on here so the only feed of information that your average Jo will read into is what is broadcast through media (TV or radio).

[lawrenk]

Indeed.In fact based on Met O raw data it has me down for peak gust of 71 mph. My point was that we need to stick to facts rather than hopecasting or scaremongering. Alot of people come on to our regional for factual information and we have a lot of posters on here that do just that. My advice to anyone unsure how to read the models and whats a more detailed prediction use Met O they have been spot on this winter.

Couldn't agree more with your comment re the Met O. To me they've had a blinder this Winter, especially when you consider the type of extreme and unusual conditions they've had to contend with.

 

Must admit I'm not looking forward to tomorrow, especially with the strongest winds looking to come late evening/early morning. Might be a case of music on the headphones plus generous volumes of Wine. Always seems to help!

[Flaked Queen]

I do look on here for updates but like knight rider said ppl like my mum watches tv and sees the weather updates or from the paper and scares her silly ! I am still learning and I never understand charts very well so for all who post on here valuable info I am very greatful

[knightrider]

The NetWeather daily forecast from my location has the winds peaking between 3 and 6am Saturday morning with mean wind of 38mph gusting to 61mph   If that's anything to go by then sounds pretty serious and certainly the strongest storm this far inland this winter so far, with an average speed of 38mph I could easily foresee gusts in the region of 70mph and that's here in Upminster so I dread to think what the south coast would be in store for that's providing of course that models prediction are even remotely accurate!

Edited February 13, 2014 by knightrider

[Steve C]

Yes but TV forecasts are far more vital then internet forecasts still because more people take note of them, unless your a weather enthusiast you probably won't spend all the hours of your day looking at online forecasts like we do on here so the only feed of information that your average Jo will read into is what is broadcast through media (TV or radio).

 

I'm not too sure what the debate is now tbh. I think there's no way the Met Office could put out a more severe warning than showing now, as I can see nothing that currently justifies it.

 

Wrt to the late red warning yesterday, the matrix for the prior amber warning, was a reasonable probability / high impact type. The red later on was issued when the probability of occurrence became more certain.

 

They could however (and I'm playing Devil's advocate) have reduced the 'impact' element on the areas that remained in the amber zone and weren't upgraded to red, as the possibility of the storm was an almost certainty.

 

More likely, I'm reading too much into their matrix. 

Edited February 13, 2014 by Steve C

[Heisenberg]

Good posting by Tamara in the model thread again. 

 

The person who responded to her obviously didn't read her post, as he could have learned from it. Anyone who has an avatar like his, is unlikely to post much of value there anyway. The response was pathetic, but immediately 'liked' by some of the cabal that seem to lurk on that thread all the time.

 

I've lost respect (and quite a lot) for one or two posters there this winter. One who is a major year round contributor too. He has made some snide postings about other valuable posters, yet his postings have often not been worth a jot.

 

(slight) rant over - I'm quite chilled really.

I have to say steve that I agree with you. If its the person im thinking off then what a pompus As* ....Anyway back to the weather and its like a stuck record....while i may get shot down for saying im looking forward to the wind prospects tomorrow, im also concerned for any damage and loss it may cause. Good luck to those that need it in the south of the region

Edited February 13, 2014 by lloydyd

[saint]

I have to say steve that I agree with you. If its the person im thinking off then what a pompus As* ....Anyway back to the weather and its like a stuck record....while i may get shot down for saying im looking forward to the wind prospects tomorrow, im also concerned for any damage and loss it may cause. Good luck to those that need it in the south of the region

 

I think tomorrow night could be one of our windiest periods this winter up in Herts Lloyd.

[Floatylight]

What a nice sunny,dry day here in colchester:)