South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 12/02/14 19z ------->

[dancing daisy]

Superwoman, its a 50/50 chance I reckon, more especially for those with added elevation. A few more opportunities thereafter in the coming days too. Yes, I noticed the GFS wasn't so keen either, but a few more runs still needed yet.

Thanks lovely! Hopefully I'll get some time to geek out later then if things are looking lively in the next few days.

[Dorsetbred]

Cracking eye candy down here, with some really good cloud structure and height, just lovin' it. Some very clearly defined cells including good downpours, a good spring day.

As to anything other than rain by Tuesday, my 'gut' feel is we are way too far south, maybe, just the smidgenest maybe something on the back edge as it curls around, and some colder air feeds in..

[gottolovethisweather]

Thanks lovely! Hopefully I'll get some time to geek out later then if things are looking lively in the next few days.

 

No probs, they are only opportunities right now, so don't get too excited just in case it all flatters to deceive once again. Conversely there will also be a fair bit of rain about again as well, but I guess you knew that. You best get some beauty sleep tonight, eh! after your busy schedule of late. 

Edited February 27, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Nights King]

We are getting close, many more runs gtlw and we shall miss the event looking at that them.

 

I think it is probably best to trust the met office on this one as models struggle to predict snow at best of times in marginal situations with evaporative cooling involved etc

[A.J]

gfs12z says to no snow.....dewpoints and wet bulb temps not even marginal, and without those two paramters on side then other parameters are irrelevant IMO....let's hope it' barking up the wrong tree

[gottolovethisweather]

Here's the updated wording from UKMO.

 

Headline:

Showery rain at times. Gales possible in the west.

 

This Evening and Tonight:

 

Some showers in the east this evening. Then spells of occasionally heavy rain soon spreading northeastwards across the region. Possibly becoming very windy through the early hours, with a risk of gales in exposed western parts. Minimum Temperature 1 °C.

 

Friday:

 

Further spells of rain in the morning, a risk of gales in the west, and perhaps some snow for a time over the Moors. Becoming drier, brighter in the afternoon. Maximum Temperature 8 °C.

 

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

 

Saturday, sunshine and showers at first. Band of persistent rain and hill snow spreading eastwards later. Sunday, becoming drier and brighter, but rain overnight, clearing to blustery showers on Monday.

[jtay]

Here's the next lot bubbling up in the distance. Looking due west, so Shaftesbury-ish. It doesn't look as hefty as earlier, but still nice to see.

 

[gottolovethisweather]

gfs12z says to no snow.....dewpoints and wet bulb temps not even marginal, and without those two paramters on side then other parameters are irrelevant IMO....let's hope it' barking up the wrong tree

 

Indeed, hopefully some faith will be restored by other outputs in the coming hours and days. The UKMO update I've just posted will probably be closest to the mark, but even then, it has been widely viewed as a NIGHTMARE FORECAST.  Will it or won't it?

[gottolovethisweather]

We are getting close, many more runs gtlw and we shall miss the event looking at that them.

 

I think it is probably best to trust the met office on this one as models struggle to predict snow at best of times in marginal situations with evaporative cooling involved etc

 

I was inferring that there are many days of potential snow events ahead, not simply tonight's or tomorrow's event. And yes, as you were typing your post, those same thoughts entered my mind re: the UKMO perspective.

Edited February 27, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Nights King]

Indeed, hopefully some faith will be restored by other outputs in the coming hours and days. The UKMO update I've just posted will probably be closest to the mark, but even then, it has been widely viewed as a NIGHTMARE FORECAST.  Will it or won't it?

 

Would also help if it fell at night of course.

[Zephyr]

I see this area is under a yellow warning for snow but I don't expect anything more than a few flakes of wet snow to be honest for Yate anyway.

[A.J]

new thread coming soon folks, link to follow

[A.J]

Alrighty then, new thread here  -------------> http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79573-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-27214-18z/

 

locking this one now