Severe Atlantic storms February 2014

[vladthemert]

Was hoping for a calmer period. Pretty sure it doesn't feel that way in West Cornwall at the moment.

Coastal Gales expected this morning, and the radar is showing red over West Cornwall, from this slow moving band

 

indead like said fear this here for bit more.  With the scientist belief that the jet stream changed could we have to prepare that atlantic storm season will hit UK from now on..

 

leaked last night in guardian was report flood defences was cut from areas which was effected.  How can EA get the blame for government narrow minded strategy.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/feb/16/flood-area-defences-funding-cuts

Edited February 17, 2014 by vladthemert

[alexisj9]

Yes, that would bring a swathe of severe gales over Ireland and up the western side of the UK. Only the GFS is showing a deep low at present so we'll have to wait and see if any of the other models want to develop something similar. 

I hope not I've well and truly had enough.

[Bobby]

At least the severe weather has led to new watersports opportunities...

 

http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/video-surfing-on-southsea-common-1-5881318

[Matty M]

Important output awaits.

 

Latest GME does develop a closed low crossing Ireland @ 72hrs.

 

[Richie V]

Here is another massive gust stored on the ws2350 from weds night at 20:19.

[Matty M]

GFS still developing a feature, perhaps not to same intensity as 6z

 

[Matty M]

UKM not as developmental but definitely picking up the feature to our southwest along the trailing cold front more-so than on this mornings run.

 

[Matty M]

Takes the system into southwest @ 72hrs, would look a lot more threatening in reality than the GM shows.

 

[Bobby]

Takes the system into southwest @ 72hrs, would look a lot more threatening in reality than the GM shows.

 

 

I think the UKMO version is more likely than the GFS. GFS 12z downgrades and was an outlier in its ensembles earlier, ECM not making much of it either though the 12z will be interesting. So some kind of secondary feature developing but nothing deep and stormy I'd wager.

[Evening thunder]

If this secondary feature develops/tracks in the wrong place it could give a lot of rain to the SW.. Although most rain is probably more likely to track west of there thankfully as it's further west even on the UKMO, taking the most intense rain up the Irish Sea. It would still be pretty wet for some further north though.

I remember a secondary wave developed which was only picked up a day or two out on the 21st November 2012 bringing major flooding to my home area of east Devon with rainfall approaching 3 inches (3 days before another major flood event).

 

 

 

At least the severe weather has led to new watersports opportunities...

 

http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/video-surfing-on-southsea-common-1-5881318

 

 

I've seen a few things like that around with people wakeboarding on flooded areas. One way to have fun in the current situation.

Edited February 17, 2014 by Evening thunder

[Dale Hay]

watersports opportunities...

That's one term I feel weary about searching on Google. :/

[Man With Beard]

Takes the system into southwest @ 72hrs, would look a lot more threatening in reality than the GM shows.

 

I don't like the fact that it is still developing as it arrives over the UK. That's when winds tend to be strongest, as I've mentioned before.

All op runs have this feature so hey, storm holiday is off, it's back to storm watch on Thursday! Could it be the 5th 80mph+ storm of the month over England/Wales? Surely a record?

[Matty M]

GEM sees some development.

 

Higher resolution models will be crucial with this development.

 

I don't like the fact that it is still developing as it arrives over the UK. That's when winds tend to be strongest, as I've mentioned before.

All op runs have this feature so hey, storm holiday is off, it's back to storm watch on Thursday! Could it be the 5th 80mph+ storm of the month over England/Wales? Surely a record?

 Absolutely , often a 970hPa developing low along a trailing cold front can be much more damaging than the winds to the south of a maturing 940hPa depression.

[Matty M]

GEM resolution = 0.24 degrees

GFS = 1 degree

UKM = 1.25 degree

 

ECMWF = 0.5 degrees (However i think this is now lower)

 

All information from meteociel.

[vladthemert]

how reliable is ECMWF

 

they got this run

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=60&PANEL=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=

[Bobby]

GEM resolution = 0.24 degrees

GFS = 1 degree

UKM = 1.25 degree

 

ECMWF = 0.5 degrees (However i think this is now lower)

 

All information from meteociel.

 

ECM horizontal resolution is now 0.125 degrees on the operational it seems. 0.25 degrees for the ensembles.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/data/archive/data_faq.html#hres

Edited February 17, 2014 by Bobby

[Summer Sun]

All warnings of danger to life from flooding along the Thames are downgraded by the Environment Agency but people are still urged to be vigilant, with high water levels expected to remain owing to more rain.

[Summer Sun]

Yellow warning for heavy rain in parts of northern Ireland from 19:00 tonight to 06:00 tomorrow

 

Issued at: 1643 on Mon 17 Feb 2014

Valid from: 1900 on Mon 17 Feb 2014

Valid to: 0600 on Tue 18 Feb 2014

 

Periods of heavy rain are expected across some southern and western parts of Northern Ireland on Monday evening lasting into the early hours of Tuesday. Given the wet ground, the public should be aware that this could lead to some localised flooding.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A small area of low pressure that is developing over Ireland will drift slowly north across Northern Ireland this evening and overnight. Some heavy rain is likely to develop in association with this feature. 10-15 mm likely quite widely with as much as 20-25 mm possible, more especially in County Fermanagh. Much of this could fall within a 6 to 9 hour period but should ease later on Monday night.

 

Areas with the warning

 

County Armagh, County Tyrone, County Fermanagh

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1392595200&regionName=ni

[Matty M]

ECMWF not interested

 

[Zenarcher]

Models seem undecided on Thursday,

 

GFS - Brings in a low like the 06z did as well. Bringing strong winds over Ireland, Wales, Northern England and Southern Scotland,

 

 

ECM - As Matty M said above it's not interested.

 

 

UKMO - Weaker low than the GFS but still enough to bring strong winds over England and Wales,

 

 

JMA - Develops a very weak low to the West of Scotland but nothing much overall similar to the ECM.

 

GME - Similar to the GFS but slightly weaker.

 

GEM - Very like the GFS and the same track as well gives it full support.

 

NAVGEM - Says no like the ECM.

 

Out of the 7 models 4 of them go for a low developing and 3 don't. Still could happen.

[Summer Sun]

'Sixth Sinkhole' Leaves House Close To Collapse

 

Three homes have been evacuated over fears one was in danger of collapse after a sinkhole - the UK's sixth in a month - opened up.

 

A cordon has been put in place to protect members of the public in Magdalen's Road in Ripon, North Yorkshire, after police were alerted at about 5.40pm on Monday.

 

No injuries have been reported at this stage and police officers are going from house to house to warn residents close to the affected properties.

 

Firefighters, ambulance crews, utilities engineers and structural engineers are also at the scene.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1213185/sixth-sinkhole-leaves-house-close-to-collapse

[vladthemert]

'Sixth Sinkhole' Leaves House Close To Collapse

 

Three homes have been evacuated over fears one was in danger of collapse after a sinkhole - the UK's sixth in a month - opened up.

 

A cordon has been put in place to protect members of the public in Magdalen's Road in Ripon, North Yorkshire, after police were alerted at about 5.40pm on Monday.

 

No injuries have been reported at this stage and police officers are going from house to house to warn residents close to the affected properties.

 

Firefighters, ambulance crews, utilities engineers and structural engineers are also at the scene.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1213185/sixth-sinkhole-leaves-house-close-to-collapse

 

scary stuff.  Im in sinkhole risk area likely due to chalk based soil.  This map at bottom shows the areas of the country who at risk..  Starting to wonder what impact all this flooding, wind damage and now sinkhole risk going up to now 5 times faster previously, will do to housing market.

 

telegraph article worry they on the rise although the twist of the scaring people with headline.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10643787/More-sinkholes-expected-to-swallow-up-Britain.html

 

BGS got good read on sinkholes in uk.

 

http://www.bgs.ac.uk/science/landUseAndDevelopment/shallow_geohazards/sinkHoles.html

 

[WhiteFox]

Finally got power back yesterday after close to 72 hours with nothing. The lights went at 9pm on Friday night and finally the electricity distributor brought in a generator for our area yesterday. The estate was like a ghost town as people abandoned their homes and went off to stay with relatives or in hotels.

As such, I'm now looking at forecasts for Thursday with some trepidation. The last thing we need right now is more wind and rain down here so the FAX chart for Thursday makes me worry somewhat.

The repeating feature of this winter seems to be one of hints of drier weather which disappear as we get closer to the reliable timeframe. Instead of my usual hunt for something colder I, along with many others, have found myself hoping for something, anything, that gives a dry settle spell of weather. I would love a Bartlett high right now! As the days lengthen I keep searching for the PV to vanish and high pressure to set up nearby bringing the scent of blossom and sunshine. Instead, once again, we see the PVC re-forming over Canada and a renewed push of low pressure systems across the Atlantic. Probability says it has to end soon, right?

[Man With Beard]

Though more rain on Thursday is a given, this storm for Thursday has disappeared from the models this morning, at least over England/Wales.

[SparkleS]

scary stuff.  Im in sinkhole risk area likely due to chalk based soil.  This map at bottom shows the areas of the country who at risk..  Starting to wonder what impact all this flooding, wind damage and now sinkhole risk going up to now 5 times faster previously, will do to housing market.

 

telegraph article worry they on the rise although the twist of the scaring people with headline.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10643787/More-sinkholes-expected-to-swallow-up-Britain.html

 

BGS got good read on sinkholes in uk.

 

http://www.bgs.ac.uk/science/landUseAndDevelopment/shallow_geohazards/sinkHoles.html

 

That doesnt mean anything to the untrained eye, whats the orange and black mean please? As thats where i am in the north west