Severe Atlantic storms February 2014

[Matty M]

Wow, well the latest output has really dismissed any potential settled weather and by the middle of next week the Jetstream will be roaring once more and the storm track well and truly rejuvenated.

[alexisj9]

Still very gusty here, over 60 on latest meto obs.

[Mapantz]

Hopefully that was the last deep low to come our way and next week we'll something more normal winter weather for the UK giving longer drier interludes between the rain which should enable the water levels to start and subside slightly though we've got a long long way to go before its completely gone

As far as I can see, there looks to be more troublesome rain again, Somerset levels are not going to get a chance to dry out, you need weeks of dry weather to really make a difference.Disclaimer: Do not take these as gospel, just a possible indication. Edited February 15, 2014 by Mapantz

[vladthemert]

no reports damage here in media.

 

Looking latest earth wind ulla dragging the american storm off such the power. It did look like it changed last night stayed up till 3 got tired must been since then.

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-17.60,56.80,889

 

what implications this that low in atlantic huge if ulla drags the US storm into that or even into itself. Fear this system not done in long chalk.

[cobbett]

Hopefully that was the last deep low to come our way and next week we'll something more normal winter weather for the UK giving longer drier interludes between the rain which should enable the water levels to start and subside slightly though we've got a long long way to go before its completely gone

Yes back to dullsville weather now till spring zzzObviously needed for the flooded areas but personally speaking I've enjoyed these winter storms. This thread will go very quiet soon !

[knocker]

There's many interpretations for that but the outlook still looks dreadful, particularly for those already suffering from flooding.

 

I did say relatively and given the past week next week looks reasonable. The jet isn't howling across us and hopefully the rain won't amount to too much. So I'm not sure I'd go along with dreadful. But hey, what do I know.

Edited February 15, 2014 by knocker

[Mapantz]

I did say relatively and given the past week next week looks reasonable. The jet isn't howling across us and hopefully the rain won't amount to too much. So I'm not sure I'd go along with dreadful. But hey, what do I know.

From our man in the know, Ian F: @fergieweather: W COUNTRY Latest f'cast modelling for Monday suggests poss further troublesome rain amounts in Somerset. Will update as confidence improves.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Yep, the latest outputs from pretty much every model indicates that we are not going to see an end to this wet and windy weather for quite a while yet. Not good news for those suffering from floods at all.

[Summer Sun]

After today the met office have no weather warnings in operation looking at the BBC weather map Mondays rain looks light and patchy for the south west

 

 

Tuesday's potential rain in the south east could see a yellow warning as we get closer especially given the state of the Thames currently

 

 

Then Wednesday things look drier again with some sunny interludes possible

 

 

One thing you'll notice from those charts is daytime max temperatures in the south never leave double figures so given some lighter winds and some sunshine it should feel quite pleasant with temperatures in London 4 or 5c above average potentially during the first 3 days of next week

Edited February 15, 2014 by Summer Sun

[The PIT]

Yup bar the temps it's looks like a normal winters week as everything drops down a notch or two. I wouldn't be surprised if something did power up a bit more than shown at present.

[Summer Sun]

Homes Evacuated As 20ft Deep Sinkhole Appears

 

More than a dozen homes have been evacuated after a 35ft wide sinkhole opened up in a street in Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire.

 

More follows...

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1212076/homes-evacuated-as-20ft-deep-sinkhole-appears

[Mapantz]

 Tuesday's potential rain in the south east could see a yellow warning as we get closer especially given the state of the Thames currently

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1392422400

[terrier]

Well the ECM and ens ensembles show more cold air flooding into the states again. So I would expect the jet to become rejuvenated again towards latter part of feb into March. Meaning more heavy rain and gales I fear for our tiny island again. So perhaps a slight break next week. Before the servere gales and rain batter us again.

[Summer Sun]

Early Yellow warning out for Tuesday in the south west with another 10mm to 15mm widely and up-to 40mm locally over high ground

 

Issued at: 1150 on Sat 15 Feb 2014

Valid from: 0015 on Mon 17 Feb 2014

Valid to: 2345 on Mon 17 Feb 2014

 

Another spell of rain is expected across southwest England during Monday. This is not expected to be as prolonged or heavy as in recent days but still has the potential to exacerbate existing flooding problems given the saturated state of the ground. The public should be aware of this possible further flood risk and disruption to transport.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Another spell of wet and rather windy weather is expected across southwest England during Monday. The associated Atlantic low pressure system is significantly less energetic than recently but may still lead to some exacerbation of existing problems given the saturated state of the ground. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 mm seem likely quite widely and perhaps 30 to 40 mm locally, mainly over high ground. This Alert will be reviewed on Sunday morning.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1392595200&regionName=uk

Areas under the warning

 

Devon, Cornwall, Dorset, Plymouth, Poole, Somerset, Torbay, Bournemouth, Isles of Scilly

[Mapantz]

There will always be a few trampoline pics after a storm..

[SDM.13]

Still breezy over my side. Had a metal structure tip over which is really heavy so that shows how powerful the weather was.

Only a few trees bent and apart from that blue sky and sunny.

[legritter]

Early Yellow warning out for Tuesday in the south west with another 10mm to 15mm widely and up-to 40mm locally over high ground

 

Issued at: 1150 on Sat 15 Feb 2014

Valid from: 0015 on Mon 17 Feb 2014

Valid to: 2345 on Mon 17 Feb 2014

 

Another spell of rain is expected across southwest England during Monday. This is not expected to be as prolonged or heavy as in recent days but still has the potential to exacerbate existing flooding problems given the saturated state of the ground. The public should be aware of this possible further flood risk and disruption to transport.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Another spell of wet and rather windy weather is expected across southwest England during Monday. The associated Atlantic low pressure system is significantly less energetic than recently but may still lead to some exacerbation of existing problems given the saturated state of the ground. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 mm seem likely quite widely and perhaps 30 to 40 mm locally, mainly over high ground. This Alert will be reviewed on Sunday morning.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1392595200&regionName=uk

Areas under the warning

 

Devon, Cornwall, Dorset, Plymouth, Poole, Somerset, Torbay, Bournemouth, Isles of Scilly

And will probably include areas a little further north ,more added to the pot  no doubt and a good top up coming later next week .last nights winds here were up a notch on wednesdays storm for here on west mendip ,but whilst sat outside late last night in porch sheltered it sounded like a freight train with a roar of a jet overhead .and Yes we have childrens trampolines blown all over the place ,but the big thing i did notice was how mild it was mid evening ,take care all and a great forum .

[terrier]

Ukmo showing more low pressures setting in later next week which will not make the problems any better down south. With more gales and rain I'm afraid. So after a settled few days it looks like going down hill again I'm afraid.

[The PIT]

Ukmo showing more low pressures setting in later next week which will not make the problems any better down south. With more gales and rain I'm afraid. So after a settled few days it looks like going down hill again I'm afraid.

One to keep an eye too see if spins up more as the week goes on.

[Snowshine]

Living in the Midlands, storms that produce 50 mph gusts are fairly rare, but 60 mph gusts are extremely rare, and Friday's storm managed to exceed that in some areas, not to forget Wednesday's storm which produced over 50 mph. I am quite amazed that the two storms which produced the strongest gusts out of any other storm in the Winter period both happened in under 3 days difference.

 

After these storms I wont think of any other minor storms as 'storms' any more, I think wind will be something of the past for a while here, until next time.

Flooding was nothing in the River Avon this Winter, the River Avon only just slightly burst its banks around five times, but recently has stayed very low. 2007 and 2012 were much more severe in Stratford. 

 

Monday wont compare to other rain storms, rain will be much lighter but rivers will still suffer as they are very sensitive, especially in the South West, and of course the River Severn in the Midlands. Possibly widespread 8 mm rainfall totals. Wednesday will bring more light rain. Thursday could be wetter, wind not a feature. 

 

Storms will start coming into Scotland as rain, giving the South a longer rest, until early March when storms will come slightly more South. No snow in the forecast unlike previous runs.

[Sainsbo]

Posted a few pictures in the regional thread today, but they we're quite small, so I thought I'd post the better quality ones here. Went for a drive down to Hannington today, and here's what just about every field looked like. Couldn't even tell where the river was. Very scary.

 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

 

I'm just wondering whether or not that little low to the South of the parent low will develop into a storm or not and head towards the UK. Its the middle of next week so its liable to change.

[Man With Beard]

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I'm just wondering whether or not that little low to the South of the parent low will develop into a storm or not and head towards the UK. Its the middle of next week so its liable to change.

Yes, as terrier mentions above, unfortunately all models now show potential for wind and rain on Thursday, in addition to a spell of rain Monday. In fact a real danger of being back to square 1 with these storms by next weekend. I doubt we will see storms of 80mph+ again (cannot be discounted on 12z runs though) but rain looks certain to keep coming. Floods are only going to be exacerbated unless we can get a proper change of pattern. Never seen such a stubborn Atlantic pattern in all my years.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Yes, as terrier mentions above, unfortunately all models now show potential for wind and rain on Thursday, in addition to a spell of rain Monday. In fact a real danger of being back to square 1 with these storms by next weekend. I doubt we will see storms of 80mph+ again (cannot be discounted on 12z runs though) but rain looks certain to keep coming. Floods are only going to be exacerbated unless we can get a proper change of pattern. Never seen such a stubborn Atlantic pattern in all my years.

It can't go on forever though, it has to change in the rest of this month (even though it looks a little unlikely) if not March because its ruining everything down South. As people have been saying, we need a lengthy dry spell to let the water drain away and for repairs to be made to coastal defences, homes, etc. but the problem is, the UK isn't very favoured in that type of scenario. In my mind, all of this extreme weather is quite odd but I think its a sign of things to come in the next 15-20 years. There's been records broken in the last 3/4 years that I didn't even know existed which Is very worrying in terms of what happens in the Spring and Summer. Will we be seeing more remnants of hurricanes crossing the country which are still extreme systems? Will there be more Thunderstorms, tornadoes etc. Popping up nationwide? Will there be extreme heatwaves causing wildfires, destroying everything? All of these questions need to be taken into consideration but the main question is, Will they be answered?

Edited February 15, 2014 by Ross Andrew Hemphill

[stevofunnelcl]

Should be getting a rest from the deep storms for a while. Some time to reflect !!

I just came across this vid. Nicely put together.

Storm Surge - North Devon 2014