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Severe Atlantic storms February 2014


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Posted
  • Location: Stansted, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Stansted, Essex (72m asl)

    The latest Estofex forecast includes the following comment for tomorrow's storm....

     

    Despite the ongoing wrap-up process of the thermal wave, this depression certainly features an higher tornado risk compared to the past events. Extreme LL shear and some modest onshore LLCAPE back that idea and an isolated strong tornado event can't be ruled out especially over SE-Ireland, SW-S and C UK.

     

    http://www.estofex.org/

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    That 6am graph looks particularly ferocious, with gusts approaching 70mph around the London region.

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    AWD is that app only for iPhones / pads or can you get it on Android systems aswell?

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    Posted
  • Location: Braintree, Essex. 150 feet (46 m) above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: T/Storms, Snow, Extreme Rain, Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Braintree, Essex. 150 feet (46 m) above sea level

    What is the general consensus re tomorrow's storm, re track and intensity, does this still have the ability to spring a surprise tomorrow or downgrade at the last minute.....or is it pretty much nailed on now?

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    AWD is that app only for iPhones / pads or can you get it on Android systems aswell?

    Not too sure although this is taken from their website;post-12721-0-88582800-1392322595_thumb.j
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Anyone calling this winter usual needs their head testing, enough said. 

    300 lake windermeres falling on top of us, or probably more now is definitely NOT usual !!

    Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    In my opinion the storm tomorrow will be a knotch or to down from yesterdays storm, The south coast of England will bear the brunt of the winds Perhaps maximum 80mph tomorrow evening, say for instance on the southern tip of the Isle Of Wight or the Needles........ rainfall problematic in the regions where no rain is wanted. Yes this is not looking good but Scotland once again will have a charmed life. and the Scottish ski  industry will be laughing to the bank.....Posted Image

    post-6830-0-44186000-1392323176_thumb.pn

    post-6830-0-47166000-1392323209_thumb.pn

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    Anyone calling this winter usual needs their head testing, enough said. 300 lake windermeres falling on top of us, or probably more now is definitely NOT usual !!

    300 windermeres approx 500 cubic kilometers more than all the fresh water in uk combined a bit much don't you think ?....
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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    AWD is that app only for iPhones / pads or can you get it on Android systems aswell?

    google  apps  -----  rain alarm

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    Posted
  • Location: Ingbirchworth 255M ASL
  • Location: Ingbirchworth 255M ASL

    200 years isn't much of a frame of reference though is it?Statistically speaking,

    Maybe not a long time re the age of the earth but definitely in terms of the modern human age 200 years ago Napoleon was still the emperor of France, so as a comparison to our history it is certainly one to note
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    Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset

    HI, Finally got round to doing a post, have followed these Forums for a couple of months, have found them both entertaining and informative.

    My work keeps me outside all of the time, especially on the coast, and one thing is for certain this winter that many coastlines have changed dramatically over the last couple of months, and as for the number of trees down, well who knows...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, tornados
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

    Southern tip of IOW here, i shall keep NW posted as much as i can, the tide is a big concern as with the winds

     

    Stay safe guys

     

    Storm Ulla  taking shape now out to the southwest

     

    http://earth.nullsch...4.96,40.70,1115

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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon/Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Swindon/Reading

    What is the general consensus re tomorrow's storm, re track and intensity, does this still have the ability to spring a surprise tomorrow or downgrade at the last minute.....or is it pretty much nailed on now?

     

    After what we've seen this week, with the last minute upgrades on Wednesdays storm (They were fairly significant, IMO), I don't think anything can be ruled out, especially when there still isn't good model agreement even at less than 24 hours regarding how far north the worst of the winds will be.

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    Posted
  • Location: Highworth (122m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and a cracking thunderstorm
  • Location: Highworth (122m ASL)

    For anyone having problems viewing the Met Office's current batch of warnings for today, Friday and Saturday on your phone, tablet, etc.. here's some pics for you. Hope that helps. Posted Image

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

    Edited by Dale Hay
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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Really think tommorow could be on par with what we saw yesterday. Also met hinting at could be worse. Wouldn't be surprised to see red warning issued again tommorow. Expect uk wide gusts of 70 80 mph. Stay safe folks. Also south coast could see coastal flooding as the tides will be a lot higher than earlier in the week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Made a map like this for Wednesday's storm so I've done the same for the next storm which will affect the UK between Friday and Saturday. These wind speeds are based off what the Met Office wind maps say and the GFS Model. It shows when you can expect the highest wind speeds for each part of the UK.

     

    Posted ImageMap Fri Sat.png

    Great map, I'd have stuck an 80mph on the south coast and a 60mph in the Midlands but that's splitting hairs! Thanks!
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    Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, sunny, warm, hot, and thundery conditions 🧡
  • Location: Warwickshire

     

     

    Made a map like this for Wednesday's storm so I've done the same for the next storm which will affect the UK between Friday and Saturday. These wind speeds are based off what the Met Office wind maps say and the GFS Model. It shows when you can expect the highest wind speeds for each part of the UK.

     

    Posted ImageMap Fri Sat.png

    Great Map although wind gusts could potentially be stronger in the Midlands and locally 80mph+ in the South and 70mph+ in Wales, if not stronger.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pelsall, Walsall. 147m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Pelsall, Walsall. 147m ASL.

    Made a map like this for Wednesday's storm so I've done the same for the next storm which will affect the UK between Friday and Saturday. These wind speeds are based off what the Met Office wind maps say and the GFS Model. It shows when you can expect the highest wind speeds for each part of the UK.

     

    Posted ImageMap Fri Sat.png

    Could be a long day of wet and windy weather then for me in South West Wales then...

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    Completely agree with the previous couple of posts inland areas including the Midlands and East Anglia (Essex, Sussex, Norfolk) could see widespread inland gusts of 60mph+ possibly even something close to 70 locally with the south facing channel coasts probably topping 80mph maybe even the odd 90mph gusts, certainly don't be surprised if the Amber warning zone is expanded to cover more of southern England further inland and with the potential certainly for a RED warning to be warranted for the south coast nearer the time (tomorrow morning) I suspect.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    The models most of the time do tend to slightly underestimate the wind speeds especially for exposed high grounds and coastal area's. We saw this on Wednesday most places in the path of the storm got higher wind speeds than forecast.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford
  • Weather Preferences: snow, blizzards, thunder snow, thunder and lightning, heat waves, tornadoes
  • Location: Chelmsford

    Yes, completely agree with what others say about the stronger winds being further north than what is being suggested by the current MO warnings. I've attached a map tweeted by Essex Weather which demonstrates this and in more simplistic terms too!

    post-8980-0-30186000-1392326954_thumb.jp

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    Posted
  • Location: IN THE FOOT HILLS AND DENSELY FORESTED AREAS OF TUNBRIDGE WELLS IN KENT
  • Weather Preferences: I like a bit of weather
  • Location: IN THE FOOT HILLS AND DENSELY FORESTED AREAS OF TUNBRIDGE WELLS IN KENT

    Well whatever happens tomorrow I hope everyone stays safe and doesn't put themselves at undue risk... The updates here have been nothing short of superb... Bravo to the farmers making their way down to Somerset... Just to scrape by.. It's clear here, cold and a bit breezy!!

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Yes, completely agree with what others say about the stronger winds being further north than what is being suggested by the current MO warnings. I've attached a map tweeted by Essex Weather which demonstrates this and in more simplistic terms too!

    Posted Imageimage.jpg

    Do they have permission to use the MetOffice logo? It's clearly been stolen and then someone with half-arsed mspaint skills has attempted to copy what the MO do, but badly!
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