Severe Atlantic storms February 2014

[vladthemert]

someone tell me this error spike from model any other model agreeing.  70-80mph winds for my location sunday . Suppose windy east coast bound get welsh love somepoint.  Summer Sun if this true better batton down hatches.

 

Well I purchased weather station its already had 29mph gust we been carmer since tea though it did have blow this afternoon when it recorded it

 

Edited February 20, 2014 by vladthemert

[johnholmes]

someone tell me this error spike from model any other model agreeing.  70-80mph winds for my location sunday . Suppose windy east coast bound get welsh love somepoint.  Summer Sun if this true better batton down hatches.

 

Well I purchased weather station its already had 29mph gust we been carmer since tea though it did have blow this afternoon when it recorded it

 

 

 

I assume you are aware the chart you show is for 850mb?

Edited February 21, 2014 by johnholmes

[The PIT]

Nothing really dramatic on the charts after the weekends blow. Monday and Tuesday for the normal windy spell n NW Scotland but remaining fairly quiet elsewhere.

[vladthemert]

I assume you are aware the chart you show is for 850mb?

 

sorry john my error still learning stuff on meteolgy

[johnholmes]

sorry john my error still learning stuff on meteolgy

 

no problem vlad, don't be afraid to ask questions, that is the way we all learn.

[Bobby]

sorry john my error still learning stuff on meteolgy

 

The 850mb wind speeds shown in that chart are winds at around 5,000 feet so the winds are much stronger at that height than at the surface. Wind charts at 850mb are usually used for predicting the movement and direction of clouds and therefore precipitation, so by following the arrows you can estimate the track rain will take.

[Summer Sun]

Yellow rain warnings out for Saturday to Monday

 

Issued at: 1118 on Fri 21 Feb 2014

Valid from: 1100 on Sat 22 Feb 2014

Valid to: 1200 on Sun 23 Feb 2014

 

An area of rain will become slow moving across Fermanagh, Tyrone and the west of Derry from Saturday afternoon through until Sunday morning. This rain will also be accompanied by southwesterly gales at times. The public should be aware of the potential for localised flooding.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A frontal system will move in across Northern Ireland on Saturday afternoon where it will become slow moving, before clearing eastwards later on Sunday morning. Rainfall totals of around 15 to 25 mm are expected widely across the area with isolated 30 to 40 mm over the high ground. This rain will fall onto already saturated ground, so some localised flooding is possible.

 

Issued at: 1059 on Fri 21 Feb 2014

Valid from: 1500 on Sat 22 Feb 2014

Valid to: 1500 on Sun 23 Feb 2014

 

An area of rain will become slow moving across Argyll, Tayside and Central Scotland from Saturday afternoon through until Sunday afternoon. Milder conditions will also cause snow melt in the high ground. It will be windy on Saturday afternoon with southwesterly gales along the west coast. The public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding, as well as surface water on many roads.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A frontal system will move in across the west of Scotland on Saturday afternoon where it will become slow moving, only sinking south during Sunday afternoon. Rainfall totals of around 30 to 40 mm are expected widely across the area with 60 mm possible over the higher ground. These rainfall totals will be enhanced by melting of lying snow in the hills, which will increase the potential for localised flooding.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1393200000&regionName=uk

 

Issued at: 1026 on Fri 21 Feb 2014

Valid from: 0015 on Sun 23 Feb 2014

Valid to: 0600 on Mon 24 Feb 2014

 

Heavy rain will fall across much of southern Scotland, Cumbria and northwest Wales through Sunday and into Monday morning. The heaviest and most persistent rain will be over the high ground of these areas where accumulations will add up through the period. Along with this rainfall winds will be strong with gales in exposed areas and particularly over higher ground. With such persistent rainfall in these areas the public should be aware of the risk of flooding.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

From Saturday afternoon a conveyor of warm and moist air will push into the UK from the west. This will bring outbreaks of rain to southern Scotland, Cumbria and northwest Wales, these becoming heavier and more persistent on Sunday morning. With strong winds causing the air to condense further over higher ground this is where we expect the highest totals through Sunday and into Monday morning, perhaps reaching 60-80 mm over the most exposed areas. Over these areas gusts of 60-70 mph may also occur. Away from the high ground much smaller rainfall totals are expected. With these large rainfall totals there is the risk of localised flooding as well as poor travel conditions with the strong winds. This alert is likely to be updated in the coming days as there remains some uncertainty over the exact timings and amounts of rainfall.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1393200000&regionName=uk

[vladthemert]

The 850mb wind speeds shown in that chart are winds at around 5,000 feet so the winds are much stronger at that height than at the surface. Wind charts at 850mb are usually used for predicting the movement and direction of clouds and therefore precipitation, so by following the arrows you can estimate the track rain will take.

 

I see thank you.

 

http://magicseaweed.com/MSW-Surf-Chart/1/?chartType=PRATE

 

Not sure who charts there pressure model represents but predicting bombardment from 24th feb.  Seems feb going out with bit of spurt, sadly alot rain for those flooded areas, at least had bit respite..

 

oh wish I had the station for the storms now, today hit 38.7mph gusts, my mate thinks because high up, thus getting higher winds than ground level. If humberside hit 27.5 m/s god knows what it was here if I do get higher winds.

[scotteboi]

Glad that there hasn't been too much rain down south in the past few days, it's given much needed drying-out time. Hopefully the storms will stay away for a while, too.I think this link may come in handy. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_weather_recordsNote how about 50-60% of countries globally have recorded their hottest temperature on record since 2000.Just because we haven't been basking doesn't mean climate change is bs. It's called "Global warming". It's in the name. It's not all about us!

Really, global means the whole world? ....are you really going there ;-)Don't buy it I'm afraid, coldest/wettest/warmest/windiest etc etc blah blah blah.For millennia the earth has been affected by weather patterns, however we only have a minute fraction of that covered by reliable records of measurement.Global warming is unproven and is a convenient excuse for governments to cream off cash and shift the blame on gw rather than their inadequate infrastructure and investment when things go pear shaped.Weather is cyclical, always has been and always will be IMHO.Sorry to go off topic and chuck in my uniformed two-penneth! Back on topic, I really hope these lows don't come off next week....but I fear it might be back to the old routine for the short term :-( It's probably my old fridge that's caused all this :-)Edit - Sainsbo, fully agree with you re glad of lack of recent rain and drying out time....I don't think it's going to be enough for some sadly. Edited February 22, 2014 by scotteboi

[knocker]

Weather is cyclical, always has been and always will be IMHO. 

 

Not effected by volcanic eruptions then?

[The PIT]

Not effected by volcanic eruptions then?

All depends on the location composition of the eruption cloud and how big it is. Anyway back on subject tomorrow looks a lively day in the west.

[knocker]

All depends on the location composition of the eruption cloud and how big it is. Anyway back on subject tomorrow looks a lively day in the west.

 

Yes a fairly breezy south westerly although not apparently too much rain on the front. Although any is too much.

[The PIT]

Interesting no warnings for wind just rain. I guess gusts to 60mph don't cut it any more.

[vladthemert]

are we in the phase of el nino.  Dr Jeff Master thinks we going have a el nino in spring 2014.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2635

[Summer Sun]

3 updated warnings for today, tomorrow and into Monday talking about the strong winds in the rain warnings with gusts up-to 70mph possible

 

Issued at: 1042 on Sat 22 Feb 2014

Valid from: 1100 on Sat 22 Feb 2014

Valid to: 1200 on Sun 23 Feb 2014

 

An area of rain will become slow moving across Fermanagh, Tyrone and the west of Derry from Saturday afternoon through until Sunday morning. This rain will also be accompanied by strong winds, with gusts to around 50 mph locally. Given the saturated conditions, the public should be aware of the potential for localised flooding. This warning is an update to the alert issued on Friday.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A frontal system will move in across Northern Ireland on Saturday afternoon where it will become slow moving, before clearing eastwards later on Sunday morning. Rainfall totals of 5-10 mm are expected widely, with more than 25 mm locally. This rain will fall onto already saturated ground, so some localised flooding is possible.

 

Issued at: 1111 on Sat 22 Feb 2014

Valid from: 1500 on Sat 22 Feb 2014

Valid to: 1500 on Sun 23 Feb 2014

 

An area of rain will become slow moving across Argyll, Tayside and Central Scotland from Saturday afternoon through until Sunday afternoon. Milder conditions will also cause snow melt in the high ground. It will be windy on Saturday afternoon with southerly gales along the west coast. The public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding, as well as surface water on many roads. This is an update to the alert issued on Friday.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A frontal system will move in across the west of Scotland on Saturday afternoon where it will become slow moving, only sinking south during Sunday afternoon. Rainfall totals of around 30 to 40 mm are expected widely across the area with 60 mm possible over the higher ground. These rainfall totals will be enhanced by melting of lying snow in the hills, which will increase the potential for localised flooding.

 

Issued at: 1036 on Sat 22 Feb 2014

Valid from: 0015 on Sun 23 Feb 2014

Valid to:  0600 on Mon 24 Feb 2014

 

Persistent rain will turn heavy at times through Sunday and into Monday morning across southwest Scotland, Cumbria and northwest Wales. Large totals will build up, particularly over hills. Winds will be strong and from the south, with gusts of 60 mph or so over coasts and hills, perhaps locally around 70 mph. The public should be aware of the risk of flooding. This warning is an update to the alert issued on Friday.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A slow moving cold front will bring a band of rain across the area, with moisture-laden air releasing large amounts of rain where strong winds hit rising ground. More than 80 mm are expected over some hill tops, with 30-40 mm more widely.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1393200000&regionName=uk

Edited February 22, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Liam J]

Southerly winds beginning to increase, looks like a pretty wet & wild period overnight tonight and into Sunday with gusts of 60-70mph possible in exposed locations to the N&W and around 55mph+ inland for parts of Scotland and the N of England, 40-50mph further south. 

Edited February 22, 2014 by Liam J

[vladthemert]

how much the sea defences been repaired since the last storms.  There been little lull surely more than just expecting damage has been undertaken.

 

See lizard point in cornwall part defence collapsed friday.  Seems now dont have to be very strong to cause further damage.  Has the UK government  poorly handled emergency repairs, especting storms to cease.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-26304727

[towbar0]

I'm told the stones brought in to protect Borth have been shoveled back ready for the coming wind and rain. Not much talk of it yet...

Edited February 22, 2014 by towbar0

[vladthemert]

I'm told the stones brought in to protect Borth have been shoveled back ready for the coming wind and rain. Not much talk of it yet...

 

thanks for the info.

 

Suprised met not issuing yellow wind warnings at present however there is warnings to shipping

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-shipping-forecast/#?tab=map

 

 

Cullercoats

From 2000 UTC Mon 24 Feb 2014 to 2000 UTC Thu 27 Feb 2014

Deep low 967 expected over Shannon on Monday evening will track northeast over Malin 972 by midday Tuesday. The low will then continue to track north and slowly fill reaching the Faeroes 985 by midday Wednesday. Later on Wednesday the low over Faeroes is expected to lose its identity with a new low developing over Rockall 981 by midnight. On Thursday this new low will become dominant and is expected over Scotland or Northern Ireland 983 at midday with an associated frontal trough moving northeast across the Irish Sea. Strong winds affecting all areas at times on Monday evening. Strong winds continuing across all areas for most of Tuesday and Wednesday with a risk of gales for northern parts of the North Sea at times. Risk of gales is then expected to extend to all but the far northwest of Cullercoats on Thursday

 

 

Last night storm intensifidied as it drew strenght from other lows.  Suprised met not taken it into account.  Currently im on east getting 27-31mph with gusts anything from around 35mph one gusts rogue was 50.1 mph.  Looks like lot wind channeling into irish sea and north sea, she is huge.

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-35.34,54.61,1104

[Thunder Snow]

Was just wondering when the heavy rain is forecast for, just had drizzle so far, but all 3 rivers in carlisle are on flood alert as much as90mm is forecast over the hills is that right?

[vladthemert]

Was just wondering when the heavy rain is forecast for, just had drizzle so far, but all 3 rivers in carlisle are on flood alert as much as90mm is forecast over the hills is that right?

 

according met 4pm today,  carlisle is predicted to miss it.  Tomorrow heavy showers in the flooded areas in SW and wales according to met not what they need.

[Summer Sun]

After a week of little rainfall flood waters are now starting to recede along the River Thames allowing the long cleaning up process to get underway

 

Egham

 

 

Bottom picture is from the 11th top picture from the 19th

 

Wraysbury

 

 

Bottom picture is from the 12th top picture from the 19th

 

Datchet

 

 

Bottom picture is from the 10th top picture from the 19th

Edited February 23, 2014 by Summer Sun

[vladthemert]

at present looking earth winds nearly 8.15pm this storm developed 4 eyes.  Has a storm ever developed such a number of eyes.  Took snapshot in case it changes.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19617-storm4eyes/

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-50.18,60.70,1818

[vladthemert]

what seeing viewing models this small respite that we going get another burst till 5th march of lows.

 

However afterwards they saying it will settle down as the warm air moves northwards blocks the lows. 

One model disagrees says the block will not happen at 8th lows continue until that date.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

[ZONE 51]

There's a band of rain continuing crossing the country tonight some heavy with very gusty conditions or gales so some added local surface water could be an issue in places.

 

Keeping watch for some heavy showers Thursday but main concern is a potent small feature moving across the south Thursday night/Friday:

The problem from this low for south UK is rainfall (affecting England and Wales) sleet and snow is possible with the system and it is all precipitation falling onto saturated and flooded ground, if the snow does settle if it happens then so something rather different for the south, but also flood problems too, we could be looking at the SE flood zones being hit with quite a bit of precipitation through Friday and possibly Saturday but also other southern areas at risk:

The low could be pulling in more ppn over the SE and EA Friday night:

Early hours of Friday rainfall/snowfall could be affecting in this position from SE to Wales as shown by GFS here:

 

This is an upcoming cold spell so the rain will be cold the cold could turn that rain to sleet or snow with accm this most likely the hills, but even low levels could see some sleet/snow at least falling.

 

Thursday eve:

 

Early hrs Friday:

 

Friday Afternoon/eve:

 

The rainfall/ppn is a concern over the next few days, here is Euro4's accumulated ppn data up to Friday eve (18z +48) 

 

 

Up to 32mm being indicated by the model for parts of S-UK up Friday evening . The track of the low not set in stone so expect amounts to change and locations affected. Stay tuned to the TV/Radio /web chat.

 

Have been concerned for the upcoming feature for a while because of the recent floods, don't want to alarm readers but the flooding likely to increase significantly and quickly if the 20-30mm or so happens in the 'wrong' areas (flood areas)

There's a band of rain continuing crossing the country tonight some heavy with very gusty conditions or gales so some added local surface water could be an issue in places.

 

Keeping watch for some heavy showers Thursday but main concern is a potent small feature moving across the south Thursday night/Friday:

The problem from this low for south UK is rainfall (affecting England and Wales) sleet and snow is possible with the system and it is all precipitation falling onto saturated and flooded ground, if the snow does settle if it happens then so something rather different for the south, but also flood problems too, we could be looking at the SE flood zones being hit with quite a bit of precipitation through Friday and possibly Saturday but also other southern areas at risk:

The low could be pulling in more ppn over the SE and EA Friday night:

Early hours of Friday rainfall/snowfall could be affecting in this position from SE to Wales as shown by GFS here:

 

This is an upcoming cold spell so the rain will be cold the cold could turn that rain to sleet or snow with accm this most likely the hills, but even low levels could see some sleet/snow at least falling.

 

Thursday eve:

 

Early hrs Friday:

 

Friday Afternoon/eve:

 

The rainfall/ppn is a concern over the next few days, here is Euro4's accumulated ppn data up to Friday eve (18z +48) 

 

 

Up to 32mm being indicated by the model for parts of S-UK up Friday evening . The track of the low not set in stone so expect amounts to change and locations affected. Stay tuned to the TV/Radio /web chat.

 

Have been concerned for the upcoming feature for a while because of the recent floods, don't want to alarm readers but the flooding likely to increase significantly and quickly if the 20-30mm or so happens in the 'wrong' areas (flood areas)