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Severe Atlantic storms February 2014


Liam J

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Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes

Made a map like this for Wednesday's storm so I've done the same for the next storm which will affect the UK between Friday and Saturday. These wind speeds are based off what the Met Office wind maps say and the GFS Model. It shows when you can expect the highest wind speeds for each part of the UK.

 

Posted ImageMap Fri Sat.png

 

would love to see met follow this way enepret threat of wind.

 

thank you weathermaster mets often too cluttered.

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

Thanks for that path prediction map Essex Boy very interesting, it certainly suggests 60mph+ winds in the highly populated parts of SE.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

GFS not shy on some notable gusts south of the M4 tomorrow evening;

post-12721-0-05269700-1392329161_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

GFS not shy on some notable gusts south of the M4 tomorrow evening;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

hmmmm...makes me think it is too early to rule out higher wind speeds than currently forecast, it only needs to go up another 10mph and there'll be a fair bit of damage
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Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes

yep that blob over scandinavia come across us very breezy nasty black cloud small but gave tad taster. Was some down drafts rotation within it. Any chance this got tornado potential.  What was suprising it did not rain despite potential throw it big. So has the rain side been over estimated a little.

 

I thought we was going get away from this but on track to fly straight at me later.  Though hope sting out of it abit.  Shame it will be dark to see the EYE.

Edited by vladthemert
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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

looks a bit breezy tomorrow int he S-East but nothing too worrying

60-80mph gusts across the SE with saturated ground worries me!
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Posted
  • Location: Verwood, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Wind,Lightning
  • Location: Verwood, Dorset

The rain coming in from the south west doesn't look that bad according to the NW rain radar

 

It will pep up, trust me on that one, shes not even close yet 

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Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, warmth, and thunder.
  • Location: Warwickshire

Tomorrow's storm could be windier inland than Wednesday's storm, but not as windy in the South West and certainly not as windy in Wales.

 

THE WIND GUSTS SHOWN IN IRELAND ARE NOT AS SEVERE AS STATED ON THE MAP, IN FACT MUCH LESS SEVERE IN SOUTH IRELAND. AROUND 55MPH MAXIMUM INLAND.

 

The storm is very likely to hit the UK near enough as stated on the maps, but another scenario could be that the storm heads South and hits Northern France and South England, limiting wind speeds inland. The chances are very slim currently. If the storm heads slightly north, which is a very unlikely scenario, then Southern Ireland will be much worse affected.

 

post-17472-0-78401000-1392333022_thumb.p

 

As for Flooding, rain amounts are likely to be more than Wednesday's storm, again inland should get more rain than Wednesday's storm, but the South West will get the most of the rainfall.

 

post-17472-0-63755800-1392332760_thumb.p

 

Wind Gusts on the GFS chart are not as strong as the previous storm gusts inland, with a maximum of 55mph.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Cumulonimbus123
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Posted
  • Location: Verwood, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Wind,Lightning
  • Location: Verwood, Dorset

Yeah the band of rain will pep up but the band is very thin at the moment!!!

 

 For the moment! lol but sadly i dont expect it to stay that way, bracing ourselves down here!

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Posted
  • Location: Verwood, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Wind,Lightning
  • Location: Verwood, Dorset

Let's hope the storm goes into France. I'm sick and tired of this weather likewise people in the southwest. Hoping for spring to come soon!!

 

I agree with you, sadly this ones got our name all over it, gonna be wild for sure!

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Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes

thanks for these maps everyone makes it so much cleaner easier to look impact of hospots.  Wonder how much coastal erosion will cause this time.  This forcast swell.

 

Posted Image

Edited by vladthemert
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Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl

Tomorrow's storm could be windier inland than Wednesday's storm, but not as windy in the South West and certainly not as windy in Wales.

 

THE WIND GUSTS SHOWN IN IRELAND ARE NOT AS SEVERE AS STATED ON THE MAP, IN FACT MUCH LESS SEVERE IN SOUTH IRELAND. AROUND 55MPH MAXIMUM INLAND.

 

The storm is very likely to hit the UK near enough as stated on the maps, but another scenario could be that the storm heads South and hits Northern France and South England, limiting wind speeds inland. The chances are very slim currently. If the storm heads slightly north, which is a very unlikely scenario, then Southern Ireland will be much worse affected.

 

Posted ImageSTORMS.png

 

As for Flooding, rain amounts are likely to be more than Wednesday's storm, again inland should get more rain than Wednesday's storm, but the South West will get the most of the rainfall.

 

Posted Imagefloods.png

 

Wind Gusts on the GFS chart are not as strong as the previous storm gusts inland, with a maximum of 55mph.

 

Posted Image

Regarding that final gust chart, it was my understanding that gusts will peak over East Anglia around 6am on Saturday, so I'm not sure that shows a downgrade.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I've just got in from the pub, it's definitely calm before the storm here! They turn the street lights off at midnight, as I live in back streets, it's normally pitch black but tonight, there's a milky moon providing some light, high cloud moving in making it like that. It is extremely still though, quite deceiving to those not in the know.

Here it comes ..

post-15177-0-90445600-1392342621_thumb.p

I'll look forward to posting weather obs tomorrow, stay safe!

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Just a last word on Wednesday's storm. It became apparent today that the area has been covered in sand...a few people mentioned it then I saw it for myself- sandy deposits on windows etc. This can't have been whipped in from the coast...can it?! It looks like proper beach sand.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.

Well the rain has already reached north Somerset.

Quite calm in St Ives, no significant wind or rain yet.

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