Severe Atlantic storms February 2014

[Man With Beard]

Really think we should be looking at amber warnings as far north as Newcastle looks like 70 to 80 mph for us in Yorkshire again tommorow afternoon. Not looking good again. Stay safe folks.

Actually the met office "yellow warning" does mention 60-70mph "even inland". It is on yellow for likelihood, not impact - so if the Met gets convinced it is likely, I'm sure it will go orange

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Does anyone else think that the rain warnings for England should be red? I know they aren't getting like 150mm in the space of 3hrs but Because there's already widespread flooding and it won't take much for the flood water to rise. Especially for areas which have withstanding Severe Flood Warnings or are liable for their warnings to be upgraded.

[Liam J]

The Met Office will only issue warnings when certain criteria are met regardless of where you happen to be in the UK. The Met have performed very well in what has been a very trying winter so far & they got yesterdays warnings bang on and they couldn't have issued warnings earlier given the very volatile and unpredictable nature of the storm system which changed tracks in the model outputs inside 24 hours, once the confidence increased in the track then only then did they issue some higher level warnings and with the gusts reaching 90-100mph in the red area then it was a very good & accurate call. 

 

There are yellow & amber warnings in force for both rain & wind. Regardless of which colour shading you're in, be it yellow or amber then you should expect some unpleasant conditions that may affect your day to day plans and the highest risk at this stage looks to be along the south coast hence the amber warning. 

Edited February 13, 2014 by Liam J

[Hammer]

Checking Met Office app shows peak gusts at 60 mph 3am Saturday but in the 50's soon after 9pm Friday, through then to 9am Saturday after the early hours peak.

I don't think even the St Jude's storm had the app showing a 60mph for my location and defiantly not as long lasting.

[snowwizard]

Met office website down. Probably upgrading warnings

[chillyblast]

Hi all

 

Apologies for the simplistic question but what is the MO App you are using? smart phone app?

 

Thanks

[Liam J]

In my experience the Meto warnings usually go like this, depending on the likelihood of the event happening & the impact on the ground. 

 

Yellow be aware 60-70mph, Amber be prepared 70-80mph and Red take action 80-90mph+ assuming the winds will be felt in populated towns and cities. 

Edited February 13, 2014 by Liam J

[Tattooed Fox]

Hi all

 

Apologies for the simplistic question but what is the MO App you are using? smart phone app?

 

Thanks

 

Hi Chilly  yes I would like to know that one as well?  Can anyone out there confirm what they are using?

[Liam J]

The Euro4 model is showing only the coastline in the south experiencing gales or severe gales with the darker blue shading, and it's that region which is covered by an amber warning. 

 

[stevofunnelcl]

More mis-information. This time from Sky News

 

Weather: UK To Be Hit By Storms In Next Week

Three more powerful storms in the next seven days

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1210968/weather-uk-to-be-hit-by-storms-in-next-week

 

One more storm to come... but that should be it, for a while

Edited February 13, 2014 by stevofunnelcl

[knightrider]

Met office website down. Probably upgrading warnings

Probably expanding the Amber warnings to cover a larger area of the South East corner!

[Buzzit]

The Euro4 model is showing only the coastline in the south experiencing gales or severe gales with the darker blue shading, and it's that region which is covered by an amber warning. 

 

100.gif

Just mentioning that the Euro 4 has shown higher wind speeds in the SE run on run on run

[Hammer]

Hi Chilly  yes I would like to know that one as well?  Can anyone out there confirm what they are using?

Met Office have an iPhone app which is what I am using, presume Google Store as well for Android phones.

[vladthemert]

In my experience the Meto warnings usually go like this, depending on the likelihood of the event happening & the impact on the ground. 

 

Yellow be aware 60-70mph, Amber be prepared 70-80mph and Red take action 80-90mph+ assuming the winds will be felt in populated towns and cities. 

 

 

question is is the traffic light system too vague actually very confusing.  Sure this makes alot people complacent to dangers and perils. There should links to risk factor of existing issues.  Like more rain in already flooded area. I think what often forgot they are dealing ordinary folks not scientist.  Also believe need system in place like america dedicated weather system breaks into programmes locally warn of threats. Explain what to do etc.  Have weather radio warning system.

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/nwrrcvr.htm

 

We also shown that disaster co-ordination is poor maybe this thing needs serious look at possible look at something like FEMA setup.

 

On monday we was getting red zone right above us stayed withing the models predicted at 70+ never got amber watch which suprised me that met never changed the threat.

 

That sting had more wind than when main event turned up later.

 

Maybe need to review how we do warnings in future.

[johnholmes]

question is is the traffic light system too vague actually very confusing.  Sure this makes alot people complacent to dangers and perils. There should links to risk factor of existing issues.  Like more rain in already flooded area. I think what often forgot they are dealing ordinary folks not scientist.  Also believe need system in place like america dedicated weather system breaks into programmes locally warn of threats. Explain what to do etc.  Have weather radio warning system.

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/nwrrcvr.htm

 

We also shown that disaster co-ordination is poor maybe this thing needs serious look at possible look at something like FEMA setup.

 

On monday we was getting red zone right above us stayed withing the models predicted at 70+ never got amber watch which suprised me that met never changed the threat.

 

That sting had more wind than when main event turned up later.

 

Maybe need to review how we do warnings in future.

 

re your break into programmes, that was done some 40 years ago, but no longer, don't ask me why, e mail Met and BBC for their answer

re the sting jet idea, too many on here use the term too often

the traffic light system was devised precisely because the public were confused by the previous system

not sure what you mean about the red warning for your area, you are east of me and neither you nor me were ever likely to be needing a red warning, amber covered it well in my view, maximum gust of around 70 mph at Doncaster airport, not sure what Humberside reported?

Edited February 13, 2014 by johnholmes

[AWD]

A snapshot (mph) of potential wind gusts tomorrow night;

[Supacell]

A snapshot (mph) of potential wind gusts tomorrow night;

image.jpgimage.jpg

 

No warnings at all for my area, but this shows gusts over 60mph which echoes what the local weather forecaster said earlier today. I would think the winds, although nothing like those that occurred yesterday, would be worthy of a warning.

 

Didn't notice this in the dark last night but my fence came down overnight!

[sclarke]

Looks like the Solent region is going to take an utter battering.

[Man With Beard]

The Met Office will only issue warnings when certain criteria are met regardless of where you happen to be in the UK. The Met have performed very well in what has been a very trying winter so far & they got yesterdays warnings bang on and they couldn't have issued warnings earlier given the very volatile and unpredictable nature of the storm system which changed tracks in the model outputs inside 24 hours, once the confidence increased in the track then only then did they issue some higher level warnings and with the gusts reaching 90-100mph in the red area then it was a very good & accurate call. 

 

There are yellow & amber warnings in force for both rain & wind. Regardless of which colour shading you're in, be it yellow or amber then you should expect some unpleasant conditions that may affect your day to day plans and the highest risk at this stage looks to be along the south coast hence the amber warning. 

Agree on the whole but surely warnings shouldn't always be issued purely on meteorological grounds, my point being yesterday that really the "red warning" call needed to be made before 8am so that people could make decisions about their days before leaving for work/school - even if the METO weren't completely ready to make the call, it should have happened. Luckily very few injuries have been reported, but look at the people stuck on trains all night. Tomorrow's event not quite so critical as it will be largely overnight.

[Sainsbo]

A snapshot (mph) of potential wind gusts tomorrow night;

image.jpgimage.jpg

 

Hmm, it seems like there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding how far north the worst of the winds will get. Those images show the winds getting quite far inland, whereas the GFS and EURO4 are still showing them staying around the coast. Still a lot of uncertainty it seems, just like Wednesdays storm we may not know the actual track and intensity until it's right on our doorstep.

 

Either way, it'll be an interesting one to watch!

Edited February 13, 2014 by Sainsbo

[EML Network]

The Met Office Max Wind Gust charts, had the Brighton area showing Maximum of 75 Mph up until this afternoon. 

 

The latest chart has is reduced it to 70Mph. 

 

So maybe the first signs of this being slightly downgraded in terms of potency as we get nearer the event itself ?

 

 

 

 

[Bluebreezer54]

Maybe need to review how we do warnings in future.

 

Or maybe we should just leave it to the ACTUAL experts ( Met Office ) ?

[stevofunnelcl]

I'm wondering if this low is going to plan

Watching animated sat loop. That cloud head is pushing north.

The northern side of the cloud head is now level with central Ireland

[Sainsbo]

Agree on the whole but surely warnings shouldn't always be issued purely on meteorological grounds, my point being yesterday that really the "red warning" call needed to be made before 8am so that people could make decisions about their days before leaving for work/school - even if the METO weren't completely ready to make the call, it should have happened. Luckily very few injuries have been reported, but look at the people stuck on trains all night. Tomorrow's event not quite so critical as it will be largely overnight.

 

I completely agree with you on that one, signs were there even the night before of gusts of 80+mph quite widely over Wales, action could have been taken a little more swiftly. That being said though, the GFS and NMM did upgrade the windspeeds quite substantially, considering the timeframe, on Wednesday morning, so it may have been slightly underestimated by them also. They are the experts afterall though, so I guess they know best.

Edited February 13, 2014 by Sainsbo

[Kiwi]

A snapshot (mph) of potential wind gusts tomorrow night;

image.jpgimage.jpg

I can't see any timings on these.....do you have any?

 

My son is off on a half-term school ski trip and they're booked on Friday's 23.15 Dover to Calais ferry.

He's a good sailor, but  he'll need to be!!......I've told him to expect delays/cancellations and will be packing him off with travel sickness tablets and a large capacity strong carrier bag etc