Severe Atlantic storms February 2014

[stevofunnelcl]

Indeed, after the past few months I don't even bat an eyelid at a Yellow warning any more.  These days I consider a Yellow warning to be like a nice summer's day ;-)

I think you have to go back a long way, to find one day, where the Met Office have not had at least one yellow warning out

We shall all celebrate probably, maybe one day next week, we'll have one or two days free from warnings

[Bobby]

The storm lurking to the SW heading our way and quickly organising, one big mass of cloud with a lot wind and rain to come

 

(at 3pm)

[Man With Beard]

Latest charts - isobars quite tight as tomorrow's storm approaches the south coast, peaks just before landfall over Cornwall/Devon, starts to ease slightly after that.

What interests me is how far the 60/70mph gusts spread inland according to GFS/NMM

Well up towards the midlands. Don't remember previous "south coast" storms looking like this. Could be some issues well inland this time.

[Mapantz]

It's not surprising rainfall amounts look to be high, those 850's give an idea on how moisture laden it will be..

[SP1986]

Im very surprised the wind field extends that far north, on this morning runs they were pretty much just southern areas, now areas around the Cheshire plain could have up to 60mph gusts.

[knightrider]

Latest charts - isobars quite tight as tomorrow's storm approaches the south coast, peaks just before landfall over Cornwall/Devon, starts to ease slightly after that.

What interests me is how far the 60/70mph gusts spread inland according to GFS/NMM

Well up towards the midlands. Don't remember previous "south coast" storms looking like this. Could be some issues well inland this time.

Yep doesn't look good does it?  The home counties and London area could take a real battering.

[gottolovethisweather]

Latest charts - isobars quite tight as tomorrow's storm approaches the south coast, peaks just before landfall over Cornwall/Devon, starts to ease slightly after that.

What interests me is how far the 60/70mph gusts spread inland according to GFS/NMM

 

 

Well up towards the midlands. Don't remember previous "south coast" storms looking like this. Could be some issues well inland this time.

 

Indeed and that has been a consistent theme over a number of days now. My weather station has recorded a top gust of 54mph ever since it was installed a few years back and I would expect that to be topped, but hopefully not toppled as in the case of a few unfortunate others in this thread. The UKMO are forecasting gusts widely up to 60mph around my patch and other outputs have been consistent in forecasting something similar. That in itself is enough to do some damage and unlike yesterday we can only hope they never reach triple digits. Keep your eyes peeled on the forecasts tomorrow guys n gals as it will be a rough day for travelling anywhere in the Southern half of England, you can rest assured of that.

It's not surprising rainfall amounts look to be high, those 850's give an idea on how moisture laden it will be..

viewimage (19).pngviewimage (20).png

 

Indeed, the embedded moisture couldn't come from anywhere further South really, could it.

Edited February 13, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Im very surprised the wind field extends that far north, on this morning runs they were pretty much just southern areas, now areas around the Cheshire plain could have up to 60mph gusts.

 

The 12zs have shown that trend mostly and to be fair I don't tend to take much notice of the other runs.

[Bobby]

There's a hole in our roof here after the chimney top fell onto it and smashed one or two of the tiles, can see the sky from the attic. Don't want all the coming rain falling into the house...

[johnholmes]

There's a hole in our roof here after the chimney top fell onto it and smashed one or two of the tiles, can see the sky from the attic. Don't want all the coming rain falling into the house...

 

hope you can get some sort of temporary cover in place, and it stays in place, before the rain gets to you. Not much time though-good luck.

[Rammie]

Given some of the posts in here re tomorrow, I'm surprised that the amber warning is only for such a narrow band in the south.

[Mapantz]

There's a hole in our roof here after the chimney top fell onto it and smashed one or two of the tiles, can see the sky from the attic. Don't want all the coming rain falling into the house...

Similar situation here but my chimney was taken down, what was covering up, collapsed yesterday, there's just a gaping hole now. It was reported but no one did anything about it.

[Matty M]

Im very surprised the wind field extends that far north, on this morning runs they were pretty much just southern areas, now areas around the Cheshire plain could have up to 60mph gusts.

Hi Stephen,

 

It seems there is going to be quite an extreme swathe of winds just aloft (@ 925hPa and then extreme @ 850hPa) heading into England.

 

 

 

[Skullzrulerz]

From the looks of it friday/saturday's storm looks like to be the last.But even if storms stop there will still be lows coming in bring rain and sometimes strong wind with it.

However storms could and can come out of nowhere. 

[knightrider]

Given some of the posts in here re tomorrow, I'm surprised that the amber warning is only for such a narrow band in the south.

I agree surely predictions of 60-70mph gusts for inland areas surrounding London warrant an Amber warning being so densely populated therefore the % of a risk to life increases because of all the traffic and people about etc... I'm quite sure they'll expand the Amber warning zone before breakfast time tomorrow, if they don't its on their own head be it!

[androcles]

That looks nasty!

[Bobby]

hope you can get some sort of temporary cover in place, and it stays in place, before the rain gets to you. Not much time though-good luck.

 

Thanks, managed to fix it for now with a spare tile and some tarpaulin glued on. Should be fine until Sunday when will get it fixed properly. That chimney stood for 60 years so it was one huge gust yesterday.

[johnholmes]

I agree surely predictions of 60-70mph gusts for inland areas surrounding London warrant an Amber warning being so densely populated therefore the % of a risk to life increases because of all the traffic and people about etc... I'm quite sure they'll expand the Amber warning zone before breakfast time tomorrow, if they don't its on their own head be it!

 

 

perhaps the clue to that is in their definitions of the colour codes for wind?

[The PIT]

Just rain for us tomorrow winds won't be a problem.

[The PIT]

John H is referring to this page http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1392336000&regionName=uk

This will tell you what the definitions are.

Edited February 13, 2014 by The PIT

[vladthemert]

I agree surely predictions of 60-70mph gusts for inland areas surrounding London warrant an Amber warning being so densely populated therefore the % of a risk to life increases because of all the traffic and people about etc... I'm quite sure they'll expand the Amber warning zone before breakfast time tomorrow, if they don't its on their own head be it!

 

I agree if there been one critism met warnings been poor and been slow to follow model predictions within 48 hours of the event.  These events rare maybe been caught out little by its magnitude.

 

What people think is better that its happening in weekend or a worry

[SP1986]

Im unsure on this; but is there any indications of anything like a stingjet, or squall line possibilities? I have looked everywhere to no avail, but obviously in yesterdays storm, the potential for squall lines, and potential sting jet possibilities, only became apparent in the morning before the storm. I suppose the same could occur tomorrow? The rain looks more organised and less dynamic than yesterdays? Although there are supposed to be showers following on.

[terrier]

Really think we should be looking at amber warnings as far north as Newcastle looks like 70 to 80 mph for us in Yorkshire again tommorow afternoon. Not looking good again. Stay safe folks.

[Bobby]

Im unsure on this; but is there any indications of anything like a stingjet, or squall line possibilities? I have looked everywhere to no avail, but obviously in yesterdays storm, the potential for squall lines, and potential sting jet possibilities, only became apparent in the morning before the storm. I suppose the same could occur tomorrow? The rain looks more organised and less dynamic than yesterdays? Although there are supposed to be showers following on.

 

I can't see any sting jet tomorrow as the storm looks fairly mature by the time it crosses us. Might have been some sting jettiness yesterday though, seen a few reports of a brief period of very intense damaging winds like we had here. Strong winds all day but exceptional for a short period which caused a lot of damage locally so I do wonder.

[knightrider]

John H is referring to this page http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1392336000&regionName=uk

This will tell you what the definitions are.

Where does it?  All that tells me is how they are defining the approaching storm not what the levels of definition are in relation to wind speed, after all gusts of 60mph inland are a far more serious situation for usually sheltered inland areas compared to if they where to materialize on the coast where people are more used to dealing with it.