Severe Atlantic storms February 2014

[Summer Sun]

Met office suggesting gusts could hit 80mph along most exposed parts of the south coast tomorrow with 60 to 70mph gusts inland in the south wouldn't be surprised if the warning is upgraded to an amber one

[James M]

Agreed next week still looks unsettled at times but not as severe as of late

 

Today's Daily Mirror says another 2 storms are coming

 

 

They've used a sat pic from 2 days ago and none of those areas highlighted are storms that are going to hit us lol!

[Lynxus]

Have to agree on the south east regional certainly not being played down and i am for one quite worried. Dont think this is being played down. south west and south east i believe will go amber today

 

On a lighter note, It does look like after Friday, we may have a quiet week next week!

[Mapantz]

A lot of downplaying for tomorrows storm going on..I dont think this is warranted. To me, the winds look just as severe ( maybe not over such a wide area ) However if that low nudges even 100 miles north.. The whole of the South, Southwest, South midlands , South wales are in for a terrible time.Extreme amounts of rain is predicted ( Seems wetter than yesterdays .... ) and the Wind / Gusts look very similar. Maybe not quite 110mph, but we are looking at a good 90mph in places..This is still extremely damaging.Considering the South have taken the brunt of these storms, this is just going to be the icing.Inland gusts are severe compared to recent storms that are very much coast affairs.My 2cents.

I agree, I also think it's down to what we've all suffered lately and yesterday in particular! I was barely in the amber warning zone yesterday, I was certainly not going to be getting anything near what Ireland, Wales and Northern England got but it did create a substantial amount of damage and disruption, the windspeeds progged for here on Fri/Sat are even higher than yesterday's - I just hope the general public realise this and don't get too blasé about the situation. Edited February 13, 2014 by Mapantz

[Summer Sun]

On a lighter note, It does look like after Friday, we may have a quiet week next week!

 

Not before time I think we all deserve a break now

[vladthemert]

Hmm, Sky not usually at the level of the Daily Express, but I'm looking through all the available charts for next week, and after tomorrow/Saturday's has past I'm struggling to find anything which we would normally class as an 'Atlantic storm' next week, (except perhaps one that brushes NW Scotland on GFS 06Z at T168)

 

25th ? it looks nasty one hopefully dont materialise

 

[gottolovethisweather]

Agreed next week still looks unsettled at times but not as severe as of late

 

Today's Daily Mirror says another 2 storms are coming

 

 

Blimey, its unlike the daily newspapers to misrepresent the forecasted weather, isn't it?  I wouldn't even give any of them publicity on these forums, but then that's just me.

 

Aside from all that, any winds above say 50mph are unwelcome really and so is any rain, we need a few months of non-active weather but to be fair, that would be mighty boring just like those omnipresent headlines and is far from likely to verify.

Edited February 13, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Lynxus]

Blimey, its unlike the daily newspapers to misrepresent the forecasted weather, isn't it?  I wouldn't even give any of them publicity on these forums, but then that's just me.

 

Aside from all that, any winds above say 50mph are unwelcome really and so is any rain, we need a few months of non-active weather but to be fair, that would be mighty boring just like those omnipresent headlines and is far from likely to verify.

 

I did read somewhere that "normally" after a winter like this ( Mild and western driven ) we tend to have a quiet nice summer ( hot even )...

Maybe a nice azores high would take place over us from lets say april till end of sept.

[Man With Beard]

A lot of downplaying for tomorrows storm going on.. I dont think this is warranted. To me, the winds look just as severe ( maybe not over such a wide area ) However if that low nudges even 100 miles north.. The whole of the South, Southwest, South midlands , South wales are in for a terrible time. Extreme amounts of rain is predicted ( Seems wetter than yesterdays .... ) and the Wind / Gusts look very similar. Maybe not quite 110mph, but we are looking at a good 90mph in places..This is still extremely damaging. Considering the South have taken the brunt of these storms, this is just going to be the icing.Inland gusts are severe compared to recent storms that are very much coast affairs. My 2cents.

That's a fair point. If the pattern is moved north, the storm will reach us quicker and therefore more potently, in which case I'd say Cornwall, Devon and Dorset could conceivably reach 90mph gusts on the coast, and the entire SW area may see gusts 10mph higher than currently expected. That, I would say, is worst case scenario.The current prognosis of 60-80mph is pretty strong anyway and will certainly cause some disruption - I don't think people are necessarily saying it's not a big deal, it's just that as it would be at least the 6th such storm to cross the south coast this season, it would just be more of what we've got used too rather than anything exceptional. And certainly flooding would be the bigger concern unless winds can get over 80mph on the coast, or maybe 70mph inland.The key difference between yesterday's storm and tomorrow's is that tomorrow's storm will be in decline long before it reaches us.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

That's a fair point. If the pattern is moved north, the storm will reach us quicker and therefore more potently, in which case I'd say Cornwall, Devon and Dorset could conceivably reach 90mph gusts on the coast, and the entire SW area may see gusts 10mph higher than currently expected. That, I would say, is worst case scenario.The current prognosis of 60-80mph is pretty strong anyway and will certainly cause some disruption - I don't think people are necessarily saying it's not a big deal, it's just that as it would be at least the 6th such storm to cross the south coast this season, it would just be more of what we've got used too rather than anything exceptional. And certainly flooding would be the bigger concern unless winds can get over 80mph on the coast, or maybe 70mph inland.The key difference between yesterday's storm and tomorrow's is that tomorrow's storm will be in decline long before it reaches us.

 

Decline? Don't think so.. Filling yes.. But very slowly..

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzUq2KVCa7Q

[Mapantz]

Chris Fawkes just said on the BBC1 news that we could be stuck in this pattern until the end of the month. A bold statement I feel? Only saving grace is that this month is only 28 days long. :lol:

Edited February 13, 2014 by Mapantz

[Bobby]

Tomorrow's storm lurking to the SW

 

http://extweb.west-cheshire.ac.uk/weather/images/msg/HRV.jpg

Edited February 13, 2014 by Bobby

[sunnijim]

Decline? Don't think so.. Filling yes.. But very slowly.. 

Exactly,it continues to deepen until its right on the doorstep of the UK.955mb or 960mb,and only fills by 5mb to 965mb as it scooches away in the early hours of Sunday,so one of the most potent systems this winter,especially for SE England.

[Lynxus]

Tomorrow's storm lurking to the SW

 

http://extweb.west-cheshire.ac.uk/weather/images/msg/HRV.jpg

 

Its a much wetter storm this one. Gonna get wet(ter)

[Man With Beard]

Decline? Don't think so.. Filling yes.. But very slowly.. 

Yes that's what I meant

[Lynxus]

Exactly,it continues to deepen until its right on the doorstep of the UK.955mb or 960mb,and only fills by 5mb to 965mb as it scooches away in the early hours of Sunday,so one of the most potent systems this winter,especially for SE England.

 

Agreed.

 

This forum will spark into life if the metoffice move the orange a bit further north.

I think everyones has given up on the south coasts lol

[Summer Sun]

Peter Gibbs hinting the end might be in sight from Sunday with some light at the end of the tunnel

No surprise to see an amber wind warning is in force from tomorrow night

 

Issued at: 1310 on Thu 13 Feb 2014

Valid from: 1800 on Fri 14 Feb 2014

Valid to: 1000 on Sat 15 Feb 2014

 

A further period of very strong winds is possible across southern and southeastern counties of England from Friday afternoon, overnight into Saturday morning. Gusts of 70 mph are likely in the Amber warning area with isolated 80 mph gusts possible along most exposed parts of the south coast. Winds will ease from the west during Saturday morning. The public should be aware of the potential for disruption to travel as well as trees being uprooted and perhaps damage to buildings. The very strong winds will be accompanied by large waves along the south coast and the public should also be aware of these potentially dangerous conditions and also the possibility of coastal flooding. This warning accompanies a larger yellow warning and has been issued as there is now more confidence in the evolution of the system leading to a medium risk of significant impacts.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Yet another storm has developed to the west of the Azores. It will run northeastwards across western and northern parts of the UK during Friday and into Saturday, before clearing to the northeast. Around the southern flank of this storm very strong southerly or southwesterly winds are expected to develop, primarily affecting southern and southeastern counties of England. There remains some uncertainty in the track and timings of this system but gusts of 60-70 mph are possible with perhaps 80 mph along most exposed parts of the south coast. With these strong winds some large waves are also likely along the south coast and there is the potential for some coastal flooding where this coincides with high tides.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=se&fcTime=1392249600

[vladthemert]

bold statement when if you look vid seems two firing off in the corner from US.

 

Hope not michael fish moment for him.

Edited February 13, 2014 by vladthemert

[Sussex Jules]

I have decided not only do you need a course to understand the warning maps from Met O but also a magnifying glass.

Agreed.

 

This forum will spark into life if the metoffice move the orange a bit further north.

I think everyones has given up on the south coasts lol

If it carries on like this we won't even be here

[Bobby]

I have decided not only do you need a course to understand the warning maps from Met O but also a magnifying glass.

 

It's easier to go to your region such as SE England then you can see the warnings described and the counties affected. Amber warning for wind there in East Sussex!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1392336000&regionName=se

Edited February 13, 2014 by Bobby

[totalhysteria]

It's easier to go to your region such as SE England then you can see the warnings described and the counties affected. Amber warning for wind there in East Sussex!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1392336000&regionName=se

It's still quite hard to see how far inland the amber warning goes, especially when the wind icon covers so much of the area!

[P-M]

Tomorrow's storm is a nightmare regardless due to the rain amounts being progged on to already flooded ground - it should not be underestimated by any standards.  Add into that winds of even 50+mph let alone 70-80mph and you have an issue IMO. 

 

The south really have taken a battering this winter I can only cross my fingers for you guys and hope that it ends soon and we have a nice long settled period.

[Bobby]

It's still quite hard to see how far inland the amber warning goes, especially when the wind icon covers so much of the area!

 

It lists the counties affected though. Under the Amber wind warning:

 

Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Portsmouth, Southampton, West Sussex

[Robbie Garrett]

Seems to me next week will be another wet week too, let's not be so short-sighted. A very wet February. 

 

[Sussex Jules]

It's easier to go to your region such as SE England then you can see the warnings described and the counties affected. Amber warning for wind there in East Sussex!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1392336000&regionName=se

Yea it was a tongue in cheek comment really.