Severe Atlantic storms February 2014

[vladthemert]

ended up our worst was 3.30pm very intense brought trees down. There was someone hurt tree fell on van why oh why did government issue warnings to stay indoors.

 

couple pictures power of nature we got off lucky but dont think the one weekend we will as its rotating oposite meaning we could get some tidal surges on top the winds. All depends on the track and development of storm.

 

[Matty M]

Still 190,000 without power in parts of southern Ireland.

 

The worst storm in 10-20 years.

 

I got away with it here, just a brief period of very strong winds around 5pm with gusts to 70/75mph.

 

Friday's looks a rain maker but also chance of some 60/70mph gusts widespread in south England.

[Summer Sun]

After yesterdays storm we now look to tomorrow and early Saturday in the south for more rain and strong winds which we have yellow warnings for

 

Issued at: 1238 on Wed 12 Feb 2014

Valid from: 0600 on Fri 14 Feb 2014

Valid to: 1200 on Sat 15 Feb 2014

 

A new area of rain will push into the UK from the southwest on Friday morning, moving quickly northeastwards and affecting many parts of England and Wales. Following this rain areas of organised showers will push across Wales and the south of England, adding to the rainfall accumulations. With very wet ground conditions in Wales and the south of England and following repeated heavy rainfall events earlier in the week, the public should be aware of the potential for further flooding in places. The rain will clear away from these most sensitive areas during Saturday morning. The impacts from this rainfall may continue on some rivers on subsequent days and further information may be found by visiting the Environment Agency website or by calling the Environment Agency Floodline. This is an update to the Alert first issued on Monday.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Yet another storm is expected to develop near the Azores, then run northeastwards across England and Wales during Friday and into Saturday, before clearing to the northeast. The associated frontal systems will bring spells of heavy and persistent rain, especially across the southern parts of England and Wales as well as further very strong winds. There remains some uncertainty in the track and timings of this system, but it seems most likely that further periods of heavy rain will affect much of the UK and in particularly Wales and southern England on Friday and into Saturday. Please monitor the website for further updates to this alert over the coming days.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1392336000&regionName=uk

 

Issued at: 1216 on Wed 12 Feb 2014

Valid from: 1500 on Fri 14 Feb 2014

Valid to: 1200 on Sat 15 Feb 2014

 

A further period of very strong winds is possible across southern and southeastern counties of England from Friday afternoon, overnight into Saturday morning. Gusts of 60-70 mph are possible even inland with 80 mph possible along most exposed parts of the south coast. The public should be aware of the potential for disruption to travel as well as trees being uprooted and perhaps damage to buildings. The very strong winds will be accompanied by large waves along the south coast and the public should be aware of potentially dangerous conditions.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Yet another storm is expected to develop near the Azores, then run northeastwards across England and Wales during Friday and into Saturday, before clearing to the northeast. Around the southern flank of this storm very strong southerly or southwesterly winds are expected to develop, primarily affecting southern and southeastern counties of England. There remains some uncertainty in the track and timings of this system but gusts of 60-70 mph are possible with perhaps 80 mph along most exposed parts of the south coast. With these strong winds some large waves are also likely along the south coast.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1392336000&regionName=uk

Edited February 13, 2014 by Summer Sun

[laserguy]

It must've been worse than I thought yesterday around here... just been outside and one of my garden planters is on its side!!!

[Jimmyh]

SS i am expecting an upgrade on that this morning

[TwisterGirl81]

Hopefully someone will post the updated 'gust charts' on here for tomorrows storm?

 

I think if we are going to possible get 60 - 70mph gusts inland than it will be more severe than yesterdays storm for southern area's as we only got the tail end.  I can only speak from my prospective in Exeter but I don't think the gusts here were higher than 60mph and that was scary enough.

 

It may even upgrade as yeserdays storm did.

Edited February 13, 2014 by TwisterGirl81

[Mapantz]

Well Friday starts of on a fairly good note but goes down hill by lunchtime..

Quite a sizable system moves up from the south west but due to where it comes from, and the distanc, it picks up a huge amount of moisture, so as well as strong winds, we can expect to see a very lively radar tomorrow. I don't need to express what that will do, we all know the problems right now..

GFS rain rates (don't take these at face value, just a quick guide)

The NMM rain total map, looks varied, but some horrible totals in there, subject to change of course..

The current track suggests that this will be for southern areas, the south west, southern coasts, and the south east in particular but strong gusts of wind around 50 to 60mph are likely quite far inland, this will be enough to cause damage or disruption once again, coastal areas seeing 60 to 70mph gusts, quite possible in excess of 80mph in exposed areas. There is a full moon is tomorrow, so tides will be higher than they have been of recent, timings with the storm will need to be looked at but it could well cause some coastal flooding again.

We're just about in the territory of the NMM 6KM model now, so here's it's take on gusts..

I would expect the MO to issue amber warnings at some point..

Another nasty period of weather coming up, stay safe.

Edited February 13, 2014 by Mapantz

[winterfreak]

. There is a full moon is tomorrow, so tides will be higher than they have been of recent, timings with the storm will need to be looked at but it could well cause some coastal flooding again.

 

 

At the risk of asking a twit question, why are tides stronger on a visible full moon? The moons always full isn't it?, we just can't see all of it all of the time!

Edited February 13, 2014 by winterfreak

[vladthemert]

thanks mapantz developing into quite worry this follows wednesday dragging winds again this got more potential be bigger threat.  origionally track was more east.

[Matty M]

Looking at the charts and ensembles i really don't know if it's game over after Friday's depression, maybe just a brief 2 day lull before the train re-commences as more cold air pushes out of North America into the north Atlantic re-invigorating the storm track.

[swebby]

At the risk of asking a twit question, why are tides stronger on a visible full moon? The moons always full isn't it?, we just can't see all of it all of the time!

Full moon (and new moon) means the sun earth and moon are in alignment thus synchronising the pull on the oceans hence higher tides.

 

http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/earth/oceanography/tide-table1.htm

[Mapantz]

At the risk of asking a twit question, why are tides stronger on a visible full moon? The moons always full isn't it?, we just can't see all of it all of the time!

On a full moon, you have alignment, the sun, earth, the moon, that increases tide height. On a new moon, you have alignment too, but it's the sun, then the moon, and earth, you also get higher tides but you cannot see the moon because the bit that is lit up is facing the sun. Spring tides occur when it's a full or new moon, sometimes a few days later (one on Monday) Not sure why, something to do with the moon orbit I think, so gravitational buldging on earth is at it's largest.

[winterfreak]

Full moon (and new moon) means the sun earth and moon are in alignment thus synchronising the pull on the oceans hence higher tides.

 

http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/earth/oceanography/tide-table1.htm

Thanks

On a full moon, you have alignment, the sun, earth, the moon, that increases tide height. On a new moon, you have alignment too, but it's the sun, then the moon, and earth, you also get higher tides but you cannot see the moon because the bit that is lit up is facing the sun. Spring tides occur when it's a full or new moon, sometimes a few days later (one on Monday) Not sure why, something to do with the moon orbit I think, so gravitational buldging on earth is at it's largest.

Thanks for the explanation

[itsnowjoke]

I know the winds arnt going to be as bad on Friday but still could cause problems as the last storm will of weakened stuff.

Edited February 13, 2014 by itsnowjoke

[Pressure Drop]

Some intense hail this morning here, accompanied with thunder to the NW. Sky was black 5 min ago now the suns out :-/

[Mapantz]

ThanksThanks for the explanation

You're welcome!I looked up as to why there can be a lag of the spring tides during new or full moons, it's down to inertia and frictional forces of the ocean, so it can be within 6 hours of a full/new moon or as much as 48 hours.Weather depending, i'm hoping to fish during the spring tides, down at Sandbanks, because of the exceptional low tide, it's good to spin for bass during the upcoming tide right by the chain ferry, the flow is so great, the bass love it! Edited February 13, 2014 by Mapantz

[vladthemert]

I know the winds arnt going to be as bad on Friday but still could cause problems as the last storm will of weakened stuff.

 

thats my fear little time to assess batton down with temporary repairs. So could end up more damaging. I just hope this time media and government give storm respect.

 

Just checked on beeb web our water levels normal generally with mist the winter hell until this storm and sat.  Worry is tributaries to humber is on amber so this could be risk further down if get more rain.

 

What risks if this rain continues to sinkholes increasing where would hotspots for risks be.

 

 

 

[Jimmyh]

Interesting just posted this on my regional page

 

Very intreresting....

 

Since the 20th december i have received 119 Email notifications from the Met office in relation to London and the southeast weather warnings.

 

That just goes to show how volatile our weather has been recently. (increased to 120)!!!!!!!!!!

 

Amazing

[Dancerwithwings]

With me living in the Midlands i've had no reason to have anything to do with tides, But i've always wondered what the difference was between a normal tide

and higher tides 'spring tides'.

 

Now i know!.... With thanks DWW.

Edited February 13, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Summer Sun]

3 more storms coming over the next 7 days: http://news.sky.com/story/1210968/weather-uk-to-be-hit-by-storms-in-next-week

Amber warning for more heavy rain in the south west issued for tomorrow

 

Issued at: 1157 on Thu 13 Feb 2014

Valid from: 0600 on Fri 14 Feb 2014

Valid to: 1400 on Fri 14 Feb 2014

 

A spell of heavy rain is expected to affect much of Cornwall, south and east Devon, along with parts of Somerset and Dorset during Friday morning, clearing to the east during the afternoon. 15-25 mm of rain will fall widely within the Amber warning area with 40 mm possible in a few places. The public should be prepared for further disruption due to both surface water and river flooding. This warning should be viewed alongside the wider Yellow Warning.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Yet another storm is now developing to the west of the Azores. It will run northeastwards across western parts of the UK during Friday and into Saturday, before clearing to the northeast. The associated frontal systems will bring spells of heavy and persistent rain, especially across the southern parts of England and Wales as well as further very strong winds (see separate warnings). The heaviest rain will affect southwest England during Friday morning, clearing to the east in the afternoon.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=sw&fcTime=1392249600

Areas under the warning

 

Dorset, Somerset, Devon, Cornwall, Plymouth, Torbay

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

3 more storms coming over the next 7 days: http://news.sky.com/story/1210968/weather-uk-to-be-hit-by-storms-in-next-week

 

Hmm, Sky not usually at the level of the Daily Express, but I'm looking through all the available charts for next week, and after tomorrow/Saturday's has past I'm struggling to find anything which we would normally class as an 'Atlantic storm' next week, (except perhaps one that brushes NW Scotland on GFS 06Z at T168)

Edited February 13, 2014 by Pennine Ten Foot Drifts

[Lynxus]

A lot of downplaying for tomorrows storm going on..

 

I dont think this is warranted. To me, the winds look just as severe ( maybe not over such a wide area ) However if that low nudges even 100 miles north.. The whole of the South, Southwest, South midlands , South wales are in for a terrible time.

 

Extreme amounts of rain is predicted ( Seems wetter than yesterdays .... ) and the Wind / Gusts look very similar. Maybe not quite 110mph, but we are looking at a good 90mph in places..

This is still extremely damaging.

 

Considering the South have taken the brunt of these storms, this is just going to be the icing.

Inland gusts are severe compared to recent storms that are very much coast affairs.

 

My 2cents.

[Summer Sun]

Hmm, Sky not usually at the level of the Daily Express, but I'm looking through all the available charts for next week, and after tomorrow/Saturday's has past I'm struggling to find anything which we would normally class as an 'Atlantic storm' next week, (except perhaps one that brushes NW Scotland on GFS 06Z at T168)

 

Agreed next week still looks unsettled at times but not as severe as of late

 

Today's Daily Mirror says another 2 storms are coming

 

[Jimmyh]

A lot of downplaying for tomorrows storm going on..

 

I dont think this is warranted. To me, the winds look just as severe ( maybe not over such a wide area ) However if that low nudges even 100 miles north.. The whole of the South, Southwest, South midlands , South wales are in for a terrible time.

 

Extreme amounts of rain is predicted ( Seems wetter than yesterdays .... ) and the Wind / Gusts look very similar. Maybe not quite 110mph, but we are looking at a good 90mph in places..

This is still extremely damaging.

 

Considering the South have taken the brunt of these storms, this is just going to be the icing.

Inland gusts are severe compared to recent storms that are very much coast affairs.

 

My 2cents.

 

Have to agree on the south east regional certainly not being played down and i am for one quite worried. Dont think this is being played down. south west and south east i believe will go amber today

[Mark Bayley]

thats my fear little time to assess batton down with temporary repairs. So could end up more damaging. I just hope this time media and government give storm respect.

 

Just checked on beeb web our water levels normal generally with mist the winter hell until this storm and sat.  Worry is tributaries to humber is on amber so this could be risk further down if get more rain.

 

What risks if this rain continues to sinkholes increasing where would hotspots for risks be.

 

 

 

 

 

Worrying if we have another very wet summer as ground water levels will take months to return to normal. Another very wet day Friday into Saturday, before the weather calms down a little, although judging by the latest runs (i.e. GFS) rainfall sets to remain an issue. ECM would offer something of a relief for southern areas.