South East England/East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 10/02/14

[Neilsouth]

http://www.itv.com/news/central/update/2014-02-12/itv-camera-catches-tree-falling-into-river-severn/

 

[Jimmyh]

Hi JP, yet more rain at 168hrs on 18z, although looks very different from earlier ecm!

 

 

gfs-0-168dif.png ECM1-168dif.GIF

 

Edit 18Z FI looks interesting, best that doesn't verify!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=300&mode=0

Yes that is quite a windstorm covering the country abandon ship me Harty for warmer climbs

[Flaked Queen]

This weather is like my life at the mo very stormy and miserable ! Anyway self pitty over with hope all are ok and this horrid weather ends very soon only thing nice about it is seeing ppl join forces and pull together true English style

[Andy H]

Interesting weather today, the local paper are saying reports or a tornado, but I doubt it, just strong winds, and trees weakend by the constant rain and winds!

[SteveCoops]

It's the end of the world - http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/three-terror-storms-horizon-108mph-3139897#.Uvv8FJ_fE0k.facebook

[Jax]

Still quite windy here, rain has eased though and feeling a lot cooler too.

[Alixzandra]

I have a general question around sinkholes. I live in a valley, mainly chalk based which has suffered mudslides in the past. There are a couple of 'naturally occurring dewponds behind me on the Downs not more than a couple of hundred yards from an unmanned man-made underground reservoir. I am assuming from what I'm reading about sink holes, that these Dew Ponds are in fact the product of sinkholes forming from years of acidic rainfall erosion? With the underground reservoir, I'm assuming there must be a cut-off point for capacity, what happens to the water that cannot be accommodated? We have run-offs when the defences can't cope and these were checked on Feb 11th and apparently were empty, which I find hard to believe to be honest given the rainfall.

Apologies for the OT, just interested and alittle concerned being in a relative 'fishbowl valley' which has been deluged in the past.

[SteveCoops]

Looks a nasty little echo inbound to Swansea at the moment

[Jax]

still not sure if we will get a cold frosty night here, forecast seems possible.

[lassie23]

I have a general question around sinkholes. I live in a valley, mainly chalk based which has suffered mudslides in the past. There are a couple of 'naturally occurring dewponds behind me on the Downs not more than a couple of hundred yards from an unmanned man-made underground reservoir. I am assuming from what I'm reading about sink holes, that these Dew Ponds are in fact the product of sinkholes forming from years of acidic rainfall erosion? With the underground reservoir, I'm assuming there must be a cut-off point for capacity, what happens to the water that cannot be accommodated? We have run-offs when the defences can't cope and these were checked on Feb 11th and apparently were empty, which I find hard to believe to be honest given the rainfall.Apologies for the OT, just interested and alittle concerned being in a relative 'fishbowl valley' which has been deluged in the past.

i'd move to another area

[chubbyfan]

mental hail shower just now..and the usual increase in wind.

[Keraunic]

Very windy again here...and its a lazy wind. It can't be bothered to go round you...it goes straight through you instead.

[chubbyfan]

theres going to be a few more 'surprise holes' appearing probably with the water table being so high.

[Jax]

£10,000.00 to fill up a hole! no wonder this country is in such a state, great gesture by the council to put a fence round it, good to see you get something for your council tax LOL!

It is crazy, and any state or public dept is allowed to get away with this is amazing, they take the urine out of us.

[fluid dynamic]

I have a general question around sinkholes. I live in a valley, mainly chalk based which has suffered mudslides in the past. There are a couple of 'naturally occurring dewponds behind me on the Downs not more than a couple of hundred yards from an unmanned man-made underground reservoir. I am assuming from what I'm reading about sink holes, that these Dew Ponds are in fact the product of sinkholes forming from years of acidic rainfall erosion? With the underground reservoir, I'm assuming there must be a cut-off point for capacity, what happens to the water that cannot be accommodated? We have run-offs when the defences can't cope and these were checked on Feb 11th and apparently were empty, which I find hard to believe to be honest given the rainfall.Apologies for the OT, just interested and alittle concerned being in a relative 'fishbowl valley' which has been deluged in the past.

I think dew ponds are man made, in areas that are devoid of natural surface water, such as on chalk, as you say.

 

If there is an underground reservoir (groundwater one ?) with an overflow, the overflowing discharge must be percolating away through the chalk. Like a soakaway - these need checking for silt build-up which inhibits permeability

[chubbyfan]

no wonder..a nasty gaggle of showers along the south coast according to my window and the rain radar.

[SteveCoops]

still not sure if we will get a cold frosty night here, forecast seems possible.

6'C here so I doubt we will get one.

[Steve C]

Still windy here, but gradually diminishing.

 

This weather is really starting to grate. Everything is a muddy mess, so even if there are dry spells, walking in the countryside round here is difficult, without dressing for it a lot more than I'd like.

 

Although I like snow, the timescale for it to bring joy / excitement in my eyes is rapidly diminishing. Tbh I'm longing for the daylight, greater warmth and new growth of Spring. At least it is almost inevitable and not too far away.

 

I really hope that Friday's low is the last of the severe ones too, although I'm not at all convinced by that, especially looking at the latest GFS run. Okay nothing really severe showing in the reliable, after the next storm, but settled weather seems to have retreated again.

 

I'm off abroad in 11 days and one of the last things I want is to worry about stormy weather here, when I'm away. It's one of the things I most dislike about going away in winter - worrying about losing tiles / fence panels etc. If it was very stormy then it might actually spoil my trip. At least if it was freezing cold, I could leave the central heating on, to avoid house damage.

 

When I used to go skiing in Canada for a fortnight every year, I'd always have an eye on what was going on back here, although I didn't ever go at a corresponding time to a big storm.

 

On this gloomy note, I'm signing off for the night.

[Jax]

6'C here so I doubt we will get one.

Chance it will get colder late night/early morning ( when I set out ) so keen to keep an eye on it, but I do hope not.

Edited February 12, 2014 by Jax

[Sussex Jules]

no wonder..a nasty gaggle of showers along the south coast according to my window and the rain radar.

Yea was quiet, wind getting back up again, hopefully they will go through quickly.

[SteveCoops]

Documentary on Florida's sink hole problem on the other day http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03tz705

[Mark Bayley]

Its the turn of the south Friday into Saturday as a deep area of low pressure from the azores tracks north eastwards brining a period of strong winds and heavy rain. Looks pretty nasty for the south coast, with wind gusts of up to 80mph, while inland 50-60mph seems probable. Further heavy rain is likely to exacerbate the current flooding situation (a further ~20mm). Definitely something to keep an eye on given the intensity and track can still very much change at this time range.  

Edited February 12, 2014 by Mark Bayley

[alexisj9]

Interesting weather today, the local paper are saying reports or a tornado, but I doubt it, just strong winds, and trees weakend by the constant rain and winds!

It's a posibility as I did watch a hook on radar earlier, and one of our forum hosts were right under it. This is a quote of what he saw.

 

 

large hail here and a broad circulation overhead, clouds showing serius circulation at different heights........will try and get some video

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79252-atlantic-storms-february-2014/?p=2927250

 

Funnel cloud passing to the west of Lyneham tracking towards Wootton Bassett.......Well defined back edge passing overhead now, and winds have dropped significantly now, but gusted tremendously during hail fall, we've had approx an inch of laying hail which is rapidly melting.......All in all, that's not something you see everyday!.....

 

(just in case they're any doubters, .those who know me on here know that I have some knowledge re. convective weather and I don't bulls**t when it comes to reports)

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79252-atlantic-storms-february-2014/?p=2927295

 

The poster is

ajpoolshark

[saint]

Considering parts of the region saw winds up to 60mph today, I wouldn't be too surprised to see winds even higher inland with Friday.

[Jax]

Documentary on Florida's sink hole problem on the other day http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03tz705

Indeed, a thread can be found here

Sinkholes: A deadly threat from Florida's 'underworld'