E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Buriedundersnow]

its funny 09/10 is being talked about as during this summer JOE B has been on twitter quite a few times banging on about how the USA summer pattern has resembled 2009 quite closely hopefully it all holds good promises for this winter coming but as we all know weather is a fickle beast and it could all mean nothing.

Edited August 9, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[bluearmy]

Joe B is confident that we will see a nino this autumn/winter and that the eastern states will see a frigid winter. he generally calls cold though.

[jonboy]

JB's not the only one Geoff Sharp at Laymans's sunspot count is also calling for another frigid winter in the states but also believes this time it will also apply to western europe.

[StretfordEnd1996]

Speaking in a non-meteorological perspective, I think it's understandable that a lot of people are beginning to feel, or already have begun to feel, rather unsure about the upcoming predicted Nino, purely because of the slow, sluggish and unpredictable last few months we have had in terms of the subject, but I don't think this plays any part into whether we are going to have one or not, as all the evidence points to one developing soon 

[Gray-Wolf]

With the arrival of new science on the subject I have begun some personal ruminations as to what this both has meant for Nino over the past decade or so but also what it must mean in the near future.

 

I must emphasise here that this is my own personal 'take' on the situation and will do my best to explain my thinking as I go.

 

WE have been being told that the current 'hiatus' in global atmospheric temps is in part due to the energy being taken down into the oceans ( instead of staying up into the atmosphere). As we have moved on with these studies it has become apparent that enhanced Trade winds ( beyond any recorded persistent trade anoms we have recorded) are mostly responsible for this and that these in turn are being driven by an enhanced Walker Cell attempting to equalise the imbalance between Atlantic and Pacific temps ( thus the descending air over the east Pacific drives overturning and cold upwelling whilst pushing a 'warm pool' out to the western Pacific enhancing sea levels there). The enhanced Trades also seem to scupper , or limit, El Nino Formation by over riding any atmospheric cooperation ( the trades just reassert themselves quashing any WWB that may look to form).

 

Recent history shows an number of Nino's forecast but only one coming into fruition, and that a very stunted 9 month affair ( yet driving global temps higher than the 98' Super Nino???). Each time we see Nino begin to form it is squished by these enhanced trades.

 

We are told that the Atlantic and Pacific are now approaching parity in their respective temps so what happens next?

 

If we see the walker Cell calm down we see the trades slacken back down. Will weaker trades keep this giant warm pool in place in the West Pacific? I think not! The scale of the KW this early spring gives us some understanding of the amount , and depth of heat now amassed over in the west Pacific. 

 

If we are approaching 'parity' then any Nino will bring that point ever closer by reducing further the temp differences between the two basins. If this anomalous warmth spread out whilst the tropical Atlantic is cooling (autumn/winter) could we not even see the pendulum swing the other way and end up with a spell of sustained westerlies in the Pacific basin as the warmth there tries to equalise with the cooler Atlantic?

 

I believe that at some point we will see a Nino form and that this , in its turn , will allow even more of that warm pool to head east. This will reinforce the Nino and maybe even take it into a 'Super' event. As this happens the Trades will fall light and the IPO switch into its surface heating phase ( and so keep PDO in its current positive phase.)

 

I believe that what we are seeing is a system reacting to the current 'warming' forcings and , as such, working slightly outside what we used to see as " the normal workings" If I am correct then Mother Nature will do her best to keep climate stable( as we are seeing by Her responses of inducing cooling by burying heat in the oceans driven by enhanced Trades) but if that forcing goes on for too long She will concede defeat and climate will step up to the next 'stable' position at a slightly higher temp?

 

From what I have read of the science we appear to be at this point and the next major Nino will act as the bridge between these two states. It will jump up global temps but in doing so will allow the currently negative natural forcings to flip into their positive states so that 'Nino warming' will not drop back into the background but form the new base line for global temps. 

 

(EDIT: Did we not see the MetO models , from the early noughties, showing a slowdown in atmospheric warming but then a resumption in the mid teens back to atmospheric warming above that which we saw in the 80's/90's?)

 

Of course a higher energy environment will mean higher energy interactions so global weather may also find itself in a more extreme/chaotic state?

Edited August 11, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[Gael_Force]

This paper might have some suggestions for why the 2012 Nino collapsed and why there seems to have been a disconnect between ocean and atmosphere recently. If their analyses are correct, more chance of a Nino this winter or in following years.

Might be a trade wind connection there too - though they seem to have been strong for nearly a decade.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006JD007378/full#jgrd13114-fig-0001

Edited August 11, 2014 by Gael_Force

[summer blizzard]

While i think the theory is interested and am not prepared to discount it in the long term (several years) i think that this NINO if it develops (the current Kelvin Wave is weaker than the one in Spring) will struggle to breach weak status. The warm anomalies in the east have been decimated and the -QBO is only a hindrance to EL Nino with SOI values only mildly supportive.

 

If this is a result of the long term -PDO then this El Nino has done well just to challenge the norm of recent years but i suspect that the next chance of a large El Nino won;t be until 2016.

[Gray-Wolf]

Well i'm holding out for the 'double whammy Nino' with current conditions limping through until next year when we'll see another large KW ( like this years?) as the Atlantic 'cools' and the walker cell relaxes allowing the trades to fall back and allow WWB to develop (helping the KW on its way)?

 

If this does happen I'll find it hard to dismiss the impacts that the 'super charged' trades are having on Nino formation..... modoki, failed nino and stunted Nino's all at the hands of anomalous Trades driven by an anomalous behaviour in a walker cell. Too many 'anomalies' for me to think it all natural coincidence?

[feb1991blizzard]

A long way a way of course but if we do get a Central Pacific El nino it would be good news, Gavin's last few mins on this video was backed up last year by a paper posted in the strat thread or somewhere, im sure there is a strong correlation between CP El ninos and SSW's

 

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Some progress towards El Nino with a new wave progressing east but only as strong as the one seen in late 2013. Soi has responded though and should reach weak El Nino threshold, the question is how long it will stay.

[feb1991blizzard]

 

 

These charts show that actually a +ve PDO correlates better with Northern blocking than a -ve PDO, unless I have messed up, or there is a lag effect, if so what is the lag effect and how should I composite?

[Cheshire Freeze]

This thread, along with the strat thread is going to get interesting as we head towards winter. I notice Gavin P has given a slight sneak peak into winter 2014-2015 prospects on his page.....seems quite a few of the models are going for a block either just to NW/N/NE of the UK during winter, with perhaps a cold, dry theme emerging at present? Obviously the last Glosea update intimated the opposite! Either way, I can't help but think with a -QBO in place, the prognosis will hinge greatly on how the Nino shapes up....

[sebastiaan1973]

A little bit off topic. I think lot's of models are not that valuable for our part of the world. But the Glosea4 UKMO model seems to be different. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/long-range-advances -> http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059637/pdf

 

Interesting times ahead!

[summer blizzard]

Current wave does look to have staying power but it's weaker than the last two.

 

[jonboy]

Current wave does look to have staying power but it's weaker than the last two.

 

 

So given its weakness what do people think regarding an el nino or is this fizzling out into a basic non starter?

[BornFromTheVoid]

So given its weakness what do people think regarding an el nino or is this fizzling out into a basic non starter?

 

Depends on the atmosphere. This wave has the potential to create a weak to moderate El Nino, if the atmosphere responds to the upwelling warm water. The 30 day SOI has been below -8 for several weeks, and even the 90 day SOI has dipped below -8 recently. Staying below -8 is a sign that the atmosphere is behaving in at least a weak El Nino like manner. If this continues, and more westerly wind bursts send extra warm water eastward, then we should see a full El Nino develop during Autumn.

 

However, if the atmosphere/SOI reverts to neutral or La Nina like values, then we'll likely hover around neutral through to winter.

[johnholmes]

this is the latest from the ENSO professional at NOAA

Most of the models continue to predict El Niño to develop during September-November and to

continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A majority of models and the multi-model averages favor a weak El

Niño. At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Niño to emerge during September-October

and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index

between 0.5°C and 0.9°C). The chance of El Niño is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and

winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

full link

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

[shaky]

What does el nino mean for our winter please?

[bryan629]

Hi Shaky.

An el nino can lead to a colder than average winter in europe, including the uk.  more often than not this happens, however it is not guaranteed. 

its one of those small ingredients thats needed to assist promote colder conditions in our part of the world 

There have been strong el ninos in the past that have not led to a below average winter here quite a few times .... im led to beleive its all to do with teleconnections and how the atmosphere reacts to an el nino. 

Hope this helps. 

[jonboy]

Thanks for the replies. The interesting point is that so far the atmosphere has not been playing ball and I get the impression that at present we don't understand why this is the case. This is why we have gone from predictions of super Nino to weak to possibly neutral

My gut tells me solar influences at play that we don't understand

[johnholmes]

Thanks for the replies. The interesting point is that so far the atmosphere has not been playing ball and I get the impression that at present we don't understand why this is the case. This is why we have gone from predictions of super Nino to weak to possibly neutral

My gut tells me solar influences at play that we don't understand

 

I am not sure that the professionals,like cpc, quoted above, have ever gone for anything more than a relatively weak El-Nino?

You can check this by looking at the previous issues, say over the last 8 or 9 motnhs.

[jonboy]

I agree John that people like cpc who better understand haven't gone for super Nino but there certainly have been some who very much advanced the idea of a super Nino being a nailed certainty

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the current warm kelvin wave. It should be surfacing over the next few weeks. There may be another following in behind it too.

 

[shaky]

Here's the current warm kelvin wave. It should be surfacing over the next few weeks. There may be another following in behind it too.

 

what do these waves mean?sorry am just a beginner,in this thread anyway!!!

[BornFromTheVoid]

what do these waves mean?sorry am just a beginner,in this thread anyway!!!

 

These are temperature anomalies (for the top image) in the subsurface of the equatorial Pacific ocean. The easterly trade winds are normally dominant in this region, which usually blows the warm water across the Pacific, where it accumulates in the west around Indonesia (which you can see in the bottom image).

In some circumstances, the easterly trade winds can weaken and even switch to westerly winds (know as a "westerly wind burst"). When this happens, a pulse of warm water can begin travelling across the Pacific ocean subsurface, where it surfaces several weeks later close to Equador. Often, the surfacing warm water can cause numerous knock on effects, reversing the atmospheric circulation across the equatorial Pacific ocean and encouraging more warm water to flow across. This is an El Nino. 

 

Earlier in the year, a similar thing occurred, but the warm water that came to the surface didn't have much of an effect of the atmosphere, so no El Nino occurred, and things remained neutral.

 

If the trade winds become particularly strong, extra warm water gets below across the Pacific to the west, and extra cold water upwells near Equador to replace it. This scenario is a La Nina.