E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Scott Ingham]

14 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Event peaked in Jan/Feb, a bit like 17/18 it developed late and weak.

Thank you buddy

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Tentatively it’s looking good for a colder than average winter 22/23 IMO.

I agree mate. Based on what i said above. Is there anything else you can add reasoning wise?

[reef]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Tentatively it’s looking good for a colder than average winter 22/23 IMO.

I'd say with energy costs the way they are you just know its going to be one of the coldest for decades! 

If it is then we really will know the weather takes the pee!

[Scott Ingham]

10 minutes ago, reef said:

I'd say with energy costs the way they are you just know its going to be one of the coldest for decades! 

If it is then we really will know the weather takes the pee!

Nailed on

[Don]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Tentatively it’s looking good for a colder than average winter 22/23 IMO.

That's my thoughts, too.  However, the way the climate is these days, it just makes it even harder to come up with an idea!  Going to be interesting to see how things develop through the rest of summer and autumn.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Don

[Cheshire Freeze]

21 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

I agree mate. Based on what i said above. Is there anything else you can add reasoning wise?

Nothing much to add mate as it’s still so early. A lot can change between now and November. 

[Scott Ingham]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Nothing much to add mate as it’s still so early. A lot can change between now and November. 

Very true.

Im looking out for the sea ice minimum and shape of the basin in september now to see where the polar jet may start and anticipate any early high latitude blocks caused by accumalated heat in the seas

[StretfordEnd1996]

On 10/06/2022 at 16:26, Scott Ingham said:

Id have to check that im not entirely sure. I think it was a decaying la nina. How long into la nina was it before it decayed? Its the 3rd year ninas im doing some research in as theres tiny amounts of evidence to suggest colder winters have followed. If so id like to know why and how

I use this very handy archive on NOAA's website to look at previous warm and cold episodes by season - this goes back around 70 years

A quick glance some Winter's that have occurred at the end of a relatively long La Nina period - 

56-57 - after Nina conditions since mid-1954, the La Nina officially ended early August 1956 and extremely light -ONI conditions persisted through the following Winter which was very mild (CET 5.5'C) 

72-73 and 76-77  - These two Winter's both occurred off the back of previous 2-3 years of La Nina dominance but I don't think they are particularly useful to use to compare to for this year as they both had moderate to strong El Nino's which I don't think will be happening at all this Winter.

85-86 - I'd forgotten until just glancing over this data that there's a huge gap from 1976 until 1983 whereby no La Nina occurred. Thus - early Fall 1983 to around late Summer 1985 was mostly -ONI dominated (with two separate moderate-ish La Nina's) and the following Winter after this was 85-86 which quite gingerly boasts a February CET of -1.1'C. (  ?) 

00-01 - 2000-2001 was still in La Nina territory (which had began back in 1998) however by this Winter it was weakening, perhaps akin to what we may see this year. Winter 2000-01 had it's moments and had some quite memorable wintry periods especially the further North you go (bit of a relief after the endless mild of the late 1990s).  2001-02 is perhaps worthy of a mention as it was the first Winter therefore after this La Nina officially ended (though it ended around March 2001 - so again different to what we are going to see this year). I'd therefore use 00-01 as a good analogue for this year but not 01-02. (01-02 was mostly mild and forgettable Winter).

08-09 - after 3-4 years of mostly La Nina territory (with a small break 06-07) 2008-2009 was a very weak La Nina Winter and was often cold with plenty of wintry spells

12-13 - previous couple of years were La Nina dominated, the La Nina ended around early Summer 2012 and the ONI actually dipped slightly positive by Winter (before weakening again during it) so probably different to what we'll see this year but nonetheless 12-13 was a cold winter with wintry spells at times

So all in all a bit of a mixed bag here but there are some nice winters in there

In my opinion I'm not entirely sure if there is any particular link or anomaly for Winters which have followed a long La Nina period but it was interesting to do a bit of a desktop survey on this either way...

[Scott Ingham]

43 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I use this very handy archive on NOAA's website to look at previous warm and cold episodes by season - this goes back around 70 years

A quick glance some Winter's that have occurred at the end of a relatively long La Nina period - 

56-57 - after Nina conditions since mid-1954, the La Nina officially ended early August 1956 and extremely light -ONI conditions persisted through the following Winter which was very mild (CET 5.5'C) 

72-73 and 76-77  - These two Winter's both occurred off the back of previous 2-3 years of La Nina dominance but I don't think they are particularly useful to use to compare to for this year as they both had moderate to strong El Nino's which I don't think will be happening at all this Winter.

85-86 - I'd forgotten until just glancing over this data that there's a huge gap from 1976 until 1983 whereby no La Nina occurred. Thus - early Fall 1983 to around late Summer 1985 was mostly -ONI dominated (with two separate moderate-ish La Nina's) and the following Winter after this was 85-86 which quite gingerly boasts a February CET of -1.1'C. (  ?) 

00-01 - 2000-2001 was still in La Nina territory (which had began back in 1998) however by this Winter it was weakening, perhaps akin to what we may see this year. Winter 2000-01 had it's moments and had some quite memorable wintry periods especially the further North you go (bit of a relief after the endless mild of the late 1990s).  2001-02 is perhaps worthy of a mention as it was the first Winter therefore after this La Nina officially ended (though it ended around March 2001 - so again different to what we are going to see this year). I'd therefore use 00-01 as a good analogue for this year but not 01-02. (01-02 was mostly mild and forgettable Winter).

08-09 - after 3-4 years of mostly La Nina territory (with a small break 06-07) 2008-2009 was a very weak La Nina Winter and was often cold with plenty of wintry spells

12-13 - previous couple of years were La Nina dominated, the La Nina ended around early Summer 2012 and the ONI actually dipped slightly positive by Winter (before weakening again during it) so probably different to what we'll see this year but nonetheless 12-13 was a cold winter with wintry spells at times

So all in all a bit of a mixed bag here but there are some nice winters in there

In my opinion I'm not entirely sure if there is any particular link or anomaly for Winters which have followed a long La Nina period but it was interesting to do a bit of a desktop survey on this either way...

This is a great post thank you. 08/09 is also the year thats stood out to me as well at this moment in time. Im in the process of looking at and tieing in arctic minimums and sea areas hit by melt as well as i believe the october/november period and positioning of high pressure systems and resulting jet pattern is heavily carved out from resultant ocean heat escape.

[Cheshire Freeze]

CFS averaged run picking up copious N blocking in December...wonder if we can reel this in this year 

Edited June 13, 2022 by CreweCold

[Don]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

CFS averaged run picking up copious N blocking in December...wonder if we can reel this in this year 

Not a bad chart but need lower pressure over southern Europe and the Mediterranean.

Edited June 13, 2022 by Don

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Not a bad chart but need lower pressure over southern Europe and the Mediterranean.

Yeah.

I'll start to pay attention to the seasonals some time in August. October is usually the best time to analyse what is being shown by them.

A weak-moderate ENSO event wouldn't harm our chances going into winter.

Edited June 13, 2022 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 11/06/2022 at 17:58, Scott Ingham said:

Very true.

Im looking out for the sea ice minimum and shape of the basin in september now to see where the polar jet may start and anticipate any early high latitude blocks caused by accumalated heat in the seas

Yeah Sep-Oct is a good time in general to put together an early analysis of where the winter is likely to go.

[Scott Ingham]

24 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

CFS averaged run picking up copious N blocking in December...wonder if we can reel this in this year 

If you look at the barents/laptev/ess oceans in the arctic. These areas have early open ice and strong melt for the time of the year and the dark oranges (high pressure) are in this area of ice melt and are where im thinking for early december. Svalbard/scandi heights alrernating with greenland heights (when the -aam takes a dive into a la nina state) if we enter winter in a weak nina.

Pretty much a dream set up but as you say on the post below we cant say with any degree of confidence until september/october

On the flip side the most robust and coldest part of the arctic is in the canadian archipelago and beaufort seas and this is the area with lowest heights. I do wonder if these long range models are programmed to predict arctic amplification

Edited June 13, 2022 by Scott Ingham

[summer blizzard]

01JUN2022: Nino3: -0.8 , Nino3.4: -0.9 , Nino4: -0.7

08JUN2022: Nino3: -0.6 , Nino3.4: -0.7 , Nino4: -0.6

[Scott Ingham]

10 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

01JUN2022: Nino3: -0.8 , Nino3.4: -0.9 , Nino4: -0.7

08JUN2022: Nino3: -0.6 , Nino3.4: -0.7 , Nino4: -0.6

The recent western pacific mjo wave has done its damage then.

[Don]

7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The recent western pacific mjo wave has done its damage then.

Hopefully there will still be a weak La Nina present during winter.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Don

[Scott Ingham]

23 minutes ago, Don said:

Hopefully there will still be a weak La Nina present during winter.

Most models predict a weak la nina or even neutral conditions come the winter complimented by a very strong negative indian ocean dipole. On top of atm an encourging russian/east atlantic and scandinavian ice retreat i think were on solid grounds. Saying all that we had good starting teleconnections last year and had a terrible winter! Haha! 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Most models predict a weak la nina or even neutral conditions come the winter complimented by a very strong negative indian ocean dipole. On top of atm an encourging russian/east atlantic and scandinavian ice retreat i think were on solid grounds. Saying all that we had good starting teleconnections last year and had a terrible winter! Haha! 

I understand a weak La Nina would be best for a colder winter but what will be will be.  However, like you say after last year who knows these days?!

[summer blizzard]

15JUN2022: Nino3: -0.6 , Nino3.4: -0.6 , Nino4: -0.5

[philglossop]

Just seen this on Matt Hugo Twitter.

 

Are we back at ENSO neutral as BOM are claiming?

Edited June 25, 2022 by philglossop

[Don]

1 hour ago, philglossop said:

Just seen this on Matt Hugo Twitter.

 

Are we back at ENSO neutral as BOM are claiming?

Potentially better news for the rest of the UK summer?

[summer blizzard]

SOI is still solidly in the mid teens so while we are losing the sub-surface, there’s not yet much movement in the atmosphere.

[summer blizzard]

15JUN2022: Nino3: -0.5 , Nino3.4: -0.6 , Nino4: -0.7

Strongest trade burst since April incoming however.. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 11/06/2022 at 17:58, Scott Ingham said:

Very true.

Im looking out for the sea ice minimum and shape of the basin in september now to see where the polar jet may start and anticipate any early high latitude blocks caused by accumalated heat in the seas

Lovely December CFS anomaly at present from a hemispheric perspective