E.N.S.O. Discussion

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Wonder if that is the start of the predicted Modoki El Nino for later in the year. After all I do remember posting this somewhere a source I found which solidly predicted a Modoki El Nino to form in 2022.

In isolation I would say yes however it is abnormal to see such a strong cold wave at the same time (not the mark of a Nina likely to give up). We are in a situation where we could easily see things come to a score draw, see the Nina collapse come spring or see the Nino attempt do likewise.

[SqueakheartLW]

13 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

In isolation I would say yes however it is abnormal to see such a strong cold wave at the same time (not the mark of a Nina likely to give up). We are in a situation where we could easily see things come to a score draw, see the Nina collapse come spring or see the Nino attempt do likewise.

Something else I've spotted that could support the theory of El Nino later in the year is that rapid warming of the waters off S America

[summer blizzard]

29DEC2021 - Niño 3: -1.4, Niño 3.4: -1.0, Niño 4: -0.4

December ONI came in around -1.04 (moderate - cements this as the strongest La Nina since 10-12).

OND ONI came in around -0.9. 

 

 

[knocker]

In December 2021, the NINO.3 SST was below normal with a deviation of -1.1°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western part and below normal in the central to eastern parts (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the western part and below normal in the central to eastern parts (Fig.5 and Fig.7). In the atmosphere, convective activity near the date line over the equatorial Pacific was below normal and easterlies in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were stronger than normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). These patterns in the atmosphere and ocean are consistent with features commonly seen in past La Niña events and indicate that La Niña conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific.

The subsurface cold water volume observed in the eastern equatorial Pacific contributed to keeping SSTs below normal. Meanwhile warm water volume in the western equatorial Pacific began to propagrate eastward. JMA's El Niño prediction model predicts that the NINO.3 SST persists to be below -0.5°C until the end of this winter, then it rises and comes closer to normal towards the coming spring in association with eastward propagation of the warm water in the western equatorial Pacific (Fig.11). In conclusion, the La Niña conditions are likely to continue at least until the end of boreal winter (80%) (Fig.1 and Fig.2), and transfer to ENSO-neutral by the end of spring (80%).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in December (Fig.3). The index is likely to be near normal until boreal spring (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was below normal in December (Fig.3). The index is likely to be below or near normal until boreal spring (Fig.13).

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html

[knocker]

ENSO Outlook

La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific. Climate models suggest the 2021–22 La Niña is near or at its peak, with a return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) likely early in the southern hemisphere autumn. Autumn is the typical time of the year in which ENSO events decay and return to neutral. La Niña increases the chance of above average rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia during summer.

Cooler than usual sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific persist, with warmer than average waters to Australia's north. Cooler sub-surface water remains in the eastern tropical Pacific, supporting the cooler waters at the surface. However, these cooler sub-surface waters are starting to warm. In the atmosphere, patterns remain broadly typical of La Niña, with decreased cloudiness near the Date Line, and trade winds close to average or slightly increased. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has reduced in magnitude over the past fortnight; however, this is likely related to transient tropical weather and not a broader climate signal.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has weakened after being in the central to eastern Pacific over the past fortnight. Some models predict a re-strengthening over the western Pacific in the coming days, which would typically lead to an increase in cloudiness and rainfall over the eastern Maritime Continent including northern Australia and the south-west Pacific. 

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index has briefly dipped to negative levels. It is forecast to approach positive levels during the remainder of January and into the first week of February. A positive SAM during summer typically brings wetter weather to eastern parts of Australia, but drier than average conditions for western Tasmania.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on global climate from December to April.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Edited January 23, 2022 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

05JAN2022: Nino3: -1.4 , Niño3.4: -1.1 , Niño4: -0.4

12JAN2022: Niño3: -1.1 , Nino3.4: -0.8 , Nino4: -0.2

19JAN2022: Nino3: -1.3 , Nino3.4: -0.8 , Nino4: -0.1

[SqueakheartLW]

The sub surface to me suggests that an El Nino is on the way

The way those colder anomalies are getting squeezed out from the west by those warmer anomalies and how expansive the warmer anomalies are becoming at depth now.

If this trend continues expect a rapid change from La Nina to El Nino by the summer unless the atmosphere doesn't want to play along and wants to stay in La Nina state, fighting against the ocean and so therefore we end up with an ENSO Neutral 2022/23 winter.

I'd say the chances of each are very much between ENSO Neutral 2022/23 winter and El Nino 2022/23 winter

I think another La Nina winter for 2022/23 is looking very unlikely at this stage.

[Don]

6 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

I'd say the chances of each are very much between ENSO Neutral 2022/23 winter and El Nino 2022/23 winter

I think another La Nina winter for 2022/23 is looking very unlikely at this stage.

Well, whatever ENSO will be, I suspect it will still be mild!

Edited January 30, 2022 by Don

[mountain shadow]

30 minutes ago, Don said:

Well, whatever ENSO will be, I suspect it will still be mild!

Exactly.  Whether it is La Nina, El Nino or neutral, it seems to have little impact on our above average temperature Winters.

[damianslaw]

26 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Exactly.  Whether it is La Nina, El Nino or neutral, it seems to have little impact on our above average temperature Winters.

Yes increasingly it seems none of the 'drivers' / teleconnections makes any difference to the background mild base state we seem to have to endure most winters most if the time. Increasingly giving up on seeing what influence they have. 

[mountain shadow]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Yes increasingly it seems none of the 'drivers' / teleconnections makes any difference to the background mild base state we seem to have to endure most winters most if the time. Increasingly giving up on seeing what influence they have. 

The continuing Northerly expansion of Azores high has done for us, in fact, it should be called the Maderia high now.

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The continuing Northerly expansion of Azores high has done for us, in fact, it should be called the Maderia high now.

Would like to understand reason for why it has migrated further north in recent winters. Perhaps warmer atlantic SSTs over the tropics are having an impact? Makes sense as colder SSTs generally would cause the boundary between polar and tropical air to be further south in times past and consequently the jet to be further south suppressing the azores high to a more southerly position. What has been notable this winter and more recent ones when the jet is flat or SW-NE aligned is how far north it is. 

Edited January 30, 2022 by damianslaw

[Don]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Yes increasingly it seems none of the 'drivers' / teleconnections makes any difference to the background mild base state we seem to have to endure most winters most if the time. Increasingly giving up on seeing what influence they have. 

The only ‘driver’ there seems to be now is global warming, which is only going to get worse.  As I’ve said, snow seekers will need to take winter holidays abroad moving forward.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Would like to understand reason for why it has migrated further north in recent winters. Perhaps warmer atlantic SSTs over the tropics are having an impact? Makes sense as colder SSTs generally would cause the boundary between polar and tropical air to be further south in times past and consequently the jet to be further south suppressing the azores high to a more southerly position. What has been notable this winter and more recent ones when the jet is flat or SW-NE aligned is how far north it is. 

As the polar ice cap shrinks, the temperature gradient that fuels the jet stream is being pulled N. Hence the Azores HP is migrating N too.

[Kasim Awan]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Yes increasingly it seems none of the 'drivers' / teleconnections makes any difference to the background mild base state we seem to have to endure most winters most if the time. Increasingly giving up on seeing what influence they have. 

They do have an influence, it's just that their effects are not linear, nor are they particularly significant. The bar is raised higher, so it takes more cold driver momentum. Also consider the infancy of long range forecasting & the inability to resolve factor interactions. Two cold favouring factors may interact to actually strengthen the jet. It is not a linear accumulation of cold momentum in the factor portfolio, more a complex network of interactions and dependencies.

[SqueakheartLW]

10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Would like to understand reason for why it has migrated further north in recent winters. Perhaps warmer atlantic SSTs over the tropics are having an impact? Makes sense as colder SSTs generally would cause the boundary between polar and tropical air to be further south in times past and consequently the jet to be further south suppressing the azores high to a more southerly position. What has been notable this winter and more recent ones when the jet is flat or SW-NE aligned is how far north it is. 

Maybe if the northwards trend of the azores high continues it'll end up so far north that it turns into a permanent northern blocking feature in the future.

Me thinking a last straw attempt at getting northern blocking in the future and a faint hope that will bring cold in the future assuming there's any cold left to tap into that is.

[Nick B]

4 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Maybe if the northwards trend of the azores high continues it'll end up so far north that it turns into a permanent northern blocking feature in the future.

Me thinking a last straw attempt at getting northern blocking in the future and a faint hope that will bring cold in the future assuming there's any cold left to tap into that is.

Maybe, but is it in fact trending N-wards or NE (seeming to find a more comfortable home over NW Europe)? The latter would not be in our favour...

[summer blizzard]

26JAN2022: Nino3: -1.0 , Nino3.4: -0.7 , Nino4: -0.2

02FEB2022: Nino3: -1.0 , Nino3.4: -0.6 , Nino4: -0.2

Jan ONI came in around -0.85 so this event peaked in December. 

NDJ ONI came in around -0.8.

...

Regarding the event the sub-surface is now net positive which suggests a fairly quick collapse in weeks to come however El Nino is statistically unlikely for two reasons..

1) Remember that we tend to see the most movement to Nino profiles during late winter/early Spring. We then quite often see trades return with a vengance for the northern hemisphere summer. Point being that one should not at this stage assume a Nina-Nino flip. 

2) OND had a ONI of -1.0. Since 1950 we have seen 13 years end with an ONI value that negative or more negative and just two of those were ONI positive at the end of the following year (76 and 18). This strongly favours -ONI be that neutral or Nina through 2022. Even limiting this to second year Nina and the following year puts us at 4-1 in favour of -ONI through 2022. (also bad news for summer since those 4 years include 56, 85, 00 and 12 (generally ranging from poor to horrific for July-August).

[SqueakheartLW]

3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

26JAN2022: Nino3: -1.0 , Nino3.4: -0.7 , Nino4: -0.2

02FEB2022: Nino3: -1.0 , Nino3.4: -0.6 , Nino4: -0.2

Jan ONI came in around -0.85 so this event peaked in December. 

NDJ ONI came in around -0.8.

...

Regarding the event the sub-surface is now net positive which suggests a fairly quick collapse in weeks to come however El Nino is statistically unlikely for two reasons..

1) Remember that we tend to see the most movement to Nino profiles during late winter/early Spring. We then quite often see trades return with a vengance for the northern hemisphere summer. Point being that one should not at this stage assume a Nina-Nino flip. 

2) OND had a ONI of -1.0. Since 1950 we have seen 13 years end with an ONI value that negative or more negative and just two of those were ONI positive at the end of the following year (76 and 18). This strongly favours -ONI be that neutral or Nina through 2022. Even limiting this to second year Nina and the following year puts us at 4-1 in favour of -ONI through 2022. (also bad news for summer since those 4 years include 56, 85, 00 and 12 (generally ranging from poor to horrific for July-August).

If we see NINO then I would expect a higher chance of a modoki CP event vs a standard EP event as NINO 4 and 3.4 are already less cold compared to average and the eastern NINO 3 and 1+2 are remaining stubbornly cold even up to now at anomalies of -1 or below generally.

[summer blizzard]

09FEB2022: Nino3: -1.1 , Nino3.4: -0.7 , Nino4: -0.2

16FEB2022: Nino3: -1.0 , Nino3.4: -0.6 , Nino4: -0.2

[SqueakheartLW]

Our current NINA event seems rather stubborn considering the warming sub surface of the Pacific

The anomalies for each NINO region have been remarkably consistent in recent times going by their respective charts

I think we can safely rule out a Super or Strong El Nino for winter 2022/23 as I can't see things changing that rapidly from a solid La Nina state to strong or even super El Nino.

We can't rule out a weak or moderate El Nino though and with the EP La Nina signature then a modoki El Nino is more likely with the less cold anomalies in the western and central Pacific already.

[summer blizzard]

Neutral is still the statistical bet but yes.  February saw the trades strengthen which seems to be stalling the surface weakening for now. Trades are forecast to strengthen again through early March.

[summer blizzard]

23FEB2022: Nino3: -1.1 , Nino3.4: -0.8 , Nino4: -0.4

Feb ONI should come in around -0.65.

DJF ONI should come in around -0.8. 

[summer blizzard]

02MAR2022: Nino3: -1.2 , Nino3.4: -1.1 , Nino4: -0.6

[summer blizzard]

With the stubborn refusal of the surface to collapse, i thought interesting to look at last year since there's now a chance that we may see a slower decay to this event than last year. 

03MAR2021 - Nino3: -0.4, Nino3.4: -0.7, Nino4: -0.8

10MAR2021 - Nino3: +0.1, Nino3.4: -0.3, Nino4: -0.5

17MAR2021 - Nino3: -0.2, Nino3.4: -0.5, Nino4: -0.4

24MAR2021 - Nino3: -0.7, Nino3.4: -0.6,  Nino4: -0.6

Sub-surface is still mediocre but trades are roaring.